The mounting public criticism of the Japanese government's response to the coronavirus outbreak has weakened the image of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, but will unlikely see him removed from office, and the economic implications of the virus outbreak may even offer Abe an opportunity to revamp his reforms, experts told Sputnik
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 22nd May, 2020) The mounting public criticism of the Japanese government's response to the coronavirus outbreak has weakened the image of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, but will unlikely see him removed from office, and the economic implications of the virus outbreak may even offer Abe an opportunity to revamp his reforms, experts told Sputnik.
To date, Japan has 16,543 confirmed cases of COVID-19 (excluding those reported from a cruise liner quarantined off Yokohama in February) and 814 associated deaths, according to the country's public broadcaster NHK, which makes the nation's mortality rate significantly lower than many European nations, Brazil, the United States and the United Kingdom. At the same time, the Japanese government has faced domestic criticism over low testing, which cast doubts over the actual scope of the disease transmission in the country.
Despite the comparatively low case and death tally, an opinion poll conducted by the Kyodo news agency earlier this month showed that 57.5 percent of Japan's general public are dissatisfied with the Abe cabinet's response to the pandemic, while 84.4 percent of respondents admitted feeling insecure about their lives amid the economic implications of the outbreak.
"Regardless of international comparisons, the perception is that Abe responded to the Coronavirus erratically," Ra Mason, a lecturer in international relations and Japanese foreign policy at the East Anglia University, told Sputnik via email.
The researcher noted that despite having comparatively low official death tally compared to many other nations, Abe had failed to "gain the kind of leadership kudos" achieved by President Moon Jae-in of neighboring South Korea, which has managed to contain the spread of the virus and has been reporting below 40 new cases a day over the past couple of weeks.
"There is a general sense of indecisiveness, more than anything else. The headlines have been bad and [there is] just a general feeling that the government is on top of things rather than responding to them I think that's the Primary source of dissatisfaction," Brad Glosserman, the deputy director of the Center for Rule Making Strategies at the Tama University in Japan, told Sputnik.
Even the politician's pledge to distribute reusable cloth masks to every household has backfired after numerous complains of mask being too small, defective and even having mold, insects and stains.
"Abe and his government did not take the early signs seriously and acted fast enough ... The government response has been slow and unclear. The declaration of a national emergency lacking legal enforcement came too late. Testing and isolation regimes have been less than desired for an advanced country like Japan. Local governments and leaders such as governors of Tokyo, Osaka and Hokkaido have been more pro-active in their responses than that of the Abe government," Purnendra Jain, a professor in the Department of Asian Studies at the University of Adelaide, told Sputnik.
The embattled prime minister has been dealt another major blow after Tokyo's top prosecutor, who is believed to have ties to Abe, was forced to resign earlier this week after media reports about him gambling at mahjong with reporters in defiance of the physical distancing measures imposed during the state of emergency in the city.
Though being technically a gambling game, mahjong does not really have a negative connotation in the Japanese society, according to Mason.
"Of course, it is still a blow, and given the exceptional circumstances is not good news for Abe, but it is unlikely to cause more than minor damage to the Prime Minister himself," the expert said.
Jain, on the other hand, asserted that the scandal would tarnish Abe's image especially in the context of his earlier attempt to raise public prosecutors' retirement age from 63 to 65, while enabling further extension upon the cabinet's approval - a bill that the Japanese prime minister had to shelve due the backlash over its potential damage to the fairness of the country's judicial system.
"Abe has already faced a string of allegations of favoritism and money in the last several years. This is the last thing Abe wanted to see at this stage," the analyst said.
The expert noted that Abe had been long facing serious challenges both domestically and internationally, amid his economic policies dubbed Abenomics hindered by the pandemic, fruitless efforts to resolve the territorial dispute with Russia, and the frustrating cancellation of the much-anticipated visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first such trip of a Chinese leader to Japan since 2008. At the same time, the constitutional revision long-touted by the politician, now "looks like a nightmare," according to Jain.
"Overall, Abe's most dream projects remain unfulfilled and his legacy beyond the longest serving prime minister is unremarkable," the expert said.
Japan's economy has officially entered recession after having after two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP. Some analysts estimate that the nation's economy would further contract by more than 20 percent in the second quarter, a biggest dive since 1955.
"In addition to the COVID problems, there is the interruption of supply chains, there's the loss of demand in developed countries or developed markets that the Japanese are serving. There was the loss of operations in the supply chain countries that the Japanese were dependent upon. It was the loss of the tourism revenue that has become increasingly important to the Japanese economy, and on the top of that there is just the loss of the Olympic revenues," Glosserman said.
Mason noted, however, that this major economic challenge might offer Abe an opportunity to go on with his economic policies.
"Abe's original three arrows of Abenomics included fiscal stimulus, quantitative easing and structural reform. The third of these has been the most consistently attacked for being inadequate and ineffective, so he might use the crisis as an opportunity to revamp or ramp-up structural reforms or at least give the impression of doing so," the expert said.
Even though the ailing economy, an array of previous favoritism scandals and criticism over reluctance to take more pro-active measures to address the outbreak, including the delay in postponing the Olympics, are frustrating and worrisome for the Japanese people, there is no political alternative to Abe now, Glosserman noted.
"So unless there is a huge scandal ... I think Abe is pretty much in the office until he decides to leave," the analyst said.
Mason similarly ruled out Abe's resignation or other far-reaching consequences unless the pandemic continued for "a lot longer" than expected.
"The (officially) low number of deaths in Japan will, ultimately, most likely mean that for all his critics, Abe will be able to claim a degree of success in combatting the crisis," the researcher said.
On Thursday, the Japanese government has lifted the coronavirus state of emergency in three more prefectures but has decided to keep measures in place in capital Tokyo and the northernmost island of Hokkaido.
