REVIEW - French LREM's Parliamentary Majority Loss Causes Discussions On Macron's Political Future

BRUSSELS (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 21st May, 2020) The recent departure of several lawmakers from French President Emmanuel Macron's La Republique En Marche (LREM or LAREM) party resulted in the formation of the ninth parliamentary group and loss of the ruling party's majority in the National Assembly that could be seen as a symptom of a crisis of Macronism in France aggravated by leader's recent unpopular decisions and poor handling of the COVID-19 crisis.

LREM was launched by Macron in April 2016 and held a parliamentary majority since 2017, when he won the presidential race. However, things have changed on Tuesday, when a group of seven Marchers decided to leave and join the new Ecology, Democracy, Solidarity (EDS) group, which will count 17 parliamentarians in its ranks.

The move resulted in Macron's party losing its absolute majority in the National Assembly and is seen by many as a symbolic manifestation of the unfolding crisis of Macronism born in 2017. Moreover, the disintegration of the presidential majority in the parliament is further aggravated by the leadership's catastrophic management of the COVID-19 health crisis.

On May 19, the LREM group in the French National Assembly fell to 288 seats, below the bar of an absolute majority fixed at 289 seats. Of course, it can still count on its allies in the Assembly, in particular, the 47 members of parliament from Francois Bayrou's centrist Modem party and ten lawmakers from the Agir group. Furthermore, the number of Walkers in the Assembly could even go up again to 289 seats.

Yet this umpteenth group departure from the former presidential majority is not a thunderbolt in a serene sky. Having come into force with 314 deputies after 2017 legislative elections, one month after the presidential vote, LREM has not stopped eroding since then. Departures rate has been around one lawmaker in every two months since 2017.

Although the government does not lose its capacity to govern, since this loss of substance does not mean gaining a majority by the opposition, this political blow is signaling certain difficulties Macron's presidency is currently going through.

The problem seems to lie in the fact that Macron's centrist party is a "catch-all" party � it is kind of fluffy when it comes to the most of its positions and based only on Macron's personality.

The president has attracted several political heavyweights from the center-right, such as former Prime Minister Alain Juppe, incumbent head of the cabinet Edouard Philippe, or Minister of Public Action and Accounts Gerald Darmanin and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire. He has also kept some of his friends who were ministers in Francois Hollande's government, such as Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.

Meanwhile, the newly established EDS group is co-chaired by Matthieu Orphelin and Paula Forteza. The former is an ecologist who has long been a member of Europe Ecology - The Greens party and tried, in his own words, to "green" Macron, along with former Minister for the Ecological and Solidary Transition Nicolas Hulot. However, both were disappointed and left.

Paula Forteza, a lawmaker representing the Second constituency for French residents overseas, is also disappointed with the present government. She left the movement in January 2020, having waited too long for "a turn to the left, which is not happening."

Two well-known figures share the vice-presidency of the new group � Delphine Batho and Cedric Villani. Batho, the former minister of ecology, sustainable development and energy is the only one to have been neither in the group nor in LREM party. This socialist had been ousted from the government in 2013, for having challenged the budget cuts.

Villani, a mathematician and 2010 Fields Medal winner always wearing a spider jewel on his jacket, was not widely known until he opposed Benjamin Griveaux to be the candidate of the LREM majority in the municipal elections of Paris. Villani was not chosen, and Griveaux withdrew over the sex tape scandal.

DANGEROUS TERRITORY FOR MACRON'S POLITICAL FUTURE

Macron benefits from a weakened opposition. From the right spectrum, the Republicans are in disarray without a strong personality such as ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy to lead them to political rebirth. The Socialists are nearly non-existent, while left-wing Unbowed France led by Jean-Luc Melenchon is very much opposed to Macron and promises a hard campaign for the next presidential election, although it represents just some 11 percent of the votes.

The only strong group in parliament opposed to Macron is the National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen. However, without a proportional representation in the legislative elections, they only have a handful of deputies, although it came first at the last European elections.

Thierry Mariani, a French lawmaker in the European Parliament from the RN party, told Sputnik that the loss of parliamentary majority by LREM was not that much of an essential event as exited lawmakers would still support Macron due to fears over possible early elections.

"This creation of the ninth political group in the Assembly is a non-event. At the first vote of confidence in the president of the republic, you will see the elected members of LAREM, even these dissidents, start to support Macron. They are too afraid of a dissolution of the Assembly and early elections. They are in line with what Macron wants: a large single party in the political center with fictitious tendencies and debates within its majority. Macron is an actor, trained by Brigitte [Macron's wife] and this becomes evident," Mariani stated.

According to the politician, France's leadership attempts to cope with the COVID-19 crisis once again proved that it is one of the most poorly managed countries in Europe.

"From September and after the end of the crisis, France will prove to be the country in Europe, which is experiencing the strongest recession and the most badly managed. We count the dead today, we will count the unemployed tomorrow. Macron and Philippe's handling of the crisis has been dismal. There was the absence of masks and the shameless lies about it. Macron promised 700,000 tests per week in May. We are at 150,000 per week. Macron is and remains in the theatre business. He acts in a play. The government launched its painful pension reform to find 8 billion Euros. Today, its incompetence in the COVID crisis costs us tens of billions," Mariani concluded.

For Dominique Martin, a French former member of the European Parliament, the country needs deep reforms, in particular, an extension of the president's term.

"All the presidents of the republic had to manage this slow loss of substance after the formation of their first government. Chirac or Sarkozy have known this. Francois Hollande saw so many 'rebels' appearing in the socialist party, that he gave up and didn't represent himself. He made Macron's bed. The five-year system that replaced the seven-year term for the presidency is a mistake. A president must be elected for seven years and possibly the second term of seven years to influence the course of things," Martin told Sputnik.

The reputation of Macron is now seriously damaged following recent scandals and some unpopular decisions and new challenges keep coming, Martin said.

"I do not think things are going well for Macron. The problems keep coming and the electorate understands a lot. There was the Benalla affair, which largely damaged the president's reputation. Then, the very serious yellow vest crisis, which cut the country in two and which revealed the abusive taxation of the French state. Then add the revolt of public hospitals, strangled by budget cuts. Then the monumental failure of the pension reform, with the revolt of lawyers to whom the government wanted to steal their pension system, as a bonus; and finally, the coronavirus crisis, incredibly poorly managed by a team that turns out to be made up of amateurs," the expert stated.

Francois Asselineau, former candidate to the French presidential elections and president of the Popular Republican Union party, told Sputnik that Macron's party has been composed of "novices and opportunists" since its formation and now these opportunists are departing from the movement.

"Macron's party was created out of ambiguity, based on a nebulous plan to do politics differently, with the support of the main French media in the hands of a handful of billionaires. In 2017, the appearance of young Macron, 38 years old, was a great theater play, and in the continuity of his election, his movement had to find candidates, who were selected very quickly and which is therefore composed of novices and opportunists. Today, these opportunists are leaving the ship, as it is becoming increasingly clear that Emmanuel Macron has no room for maneuver," Asselineau highlighted.

"He appears today to be uncontrollable, to the point of wondering about his ability to lead. I never believe, as polls say, that the president has 35 percent support in France. This is wrong, the rejection is massive. When we see his painful lies on the masks issue, refusing to recognize responsibilities, we have to ask questions about his mental health! Why does he talk so much?" the expert concluded.