RPT: REVIEW - Third Round Of Brexit Negotiations Continue As UK, EU Seek To Break Deadlock

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 15th May, 2020) The third round of negotiations involving officials from London and Brussels to decide the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union are set to conclude on Friday, but it remains to be seen if progress will be made as the end of the Brexit transition period looms on December 31.

Leading negotiators from both parties held a week of talks in late April but little progress was made. The UK's lead negotiator David Frost and his EU counterpart, Michel Barnier, both bemoaned the impasse between both sides, particularly on issues such as governance provisions and fisheries.

With more than 200 officials taking part in the talks via video conference this week, the time is well and truly ticking given that multiple agreements, such as a wide-ranging free trade deal, must be concluded by December 31. London and Brussels only have seven-and-a-half months remaining, and this timeline was agreed even before the onset of the coronavirus disease pandemic, which has taken the attention away from these crunch talks.

The COVID-19 outbreak has put pressure on both sides in the negotiations to look for an extension to the Brexit transition period. The UK officially left the European Union on January 31, but this was on the condition that an eleven-month transition period would be put into place, giving negotiators time to thrash out the required agreements on key issues such as trade, defense, borders, and agriculture.

Previous talks planned for spring have been severely disrupted by the coronavirus disease outbreak as EU and UK leaders switched their attention to combating the pandemic. Michel Barnier then tested positive for the disease in March, and his UK counterpart, David Frost, entered self-isolation after displaying COVID-19 symptoms, which prompted the cancellation of planned trade talks between both parties.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has urged the UK to categorically rule out the possibility of the transition period ending without a trade deal agreed between both sides, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has, on multiple occasions, expressed her worries that the deadline will not be met.

However, Conservative ministers, such as Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, have continued to rule out any possibility of extending the transition period beyond the December 31 deadline. Indeed, even Labour Party leader Keir Starmer on Monday said that he would prefer Johnson to conclude the agreements as soon as possible, during an appearance on the LBC radio station.

According to Francis Cole, a retired European Commission interpreter and an aide to leading UK eurosceptic Nigel Farage, the Conservative government simply cannot fail to meet the Brexit deadline.

"I think the British government will hold out against extending the transition period further than December 31. It is very much a question of credibility. They are attacked on the way they managed the COVID-19 crisis. They can't fail on Brexit. With confinement, people have time and there is a lot of traffic in the UK on social media about Brexit. People have not forgotten," Cole told Sputnik.

On April 18, a source close to the negotiations told the Telegraph newspaper that one of London's Primary motivations for ruling out any extension is so that the UK is not on the hook for funding the EU's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Cole, remaining in the EU will also mean that the UK will have to contribute to von der Leyen's new Green Deal.

"Boris Johnson is also afraid of staying another year or two in the union, with the high costs that the lockdown implies, and the continuation by the EU of costly initiatives such as the Green Deal. They want out, not to pay for it. There is also the issue of the Europeans in the UK; there are 5 times more Europeans in the UK than British abroad, but it can be solved, like the issue of the fisheries," Cole remarked.

Despite the desire for lawmakers to get Brexit done, the UK population, including those who wish to leave the European Union, believe that an extension should be reached to allow the government to concentrate all of its efforts on the coronavirus disease pandemic.

According to a poll of over 2,000 people conducted in April by Focaldata, 66 percent of the UK population supports an extension to the transition period, including 48 percent of Conservative Party voters and 45 percent of Brexit Party voters.

The rumor in the corridors of Brussels is that EU leaders believe Johnson will maintain the date of December 31 for the closing of the trade deal, but that the prime minister thinks that he could always get away by asking for a postponement in December if talks with Brussels turn sour.

The problem is that under the agreement signed by Johnson, the transition period can indeed be extended by up to two years, but the extension must be decided by the end of June, to give the tens of thousands of businesses on both sides of the English Channel time to prepare before the implementation of the deal at the end of the year.

However, given the government's rhetoric, the looming specter of a no-deal Brexit, which will see the UK and EU's trading relationship built on rules set by the World Trade Organization, remains.

According to an agenda of the negotiations, published before talks resumed on Monday, twelve separate teams of negotiators are meeting to discuss matters such as trade, transport, energy, security, and migration.

The latter is perhaps the most important topic for the UK population, given that the issue of migration played such a crucial role in deciding the fate of the initial Brexit referendum back in June 2016, Cole said.

"The main issue, as reflected in tabloids which influence politicians, is the issue of illegal immigrants, continuing to flock from France and Belgium, in lorries but also on fast small boats to the coast of Britain in the region of Calais - Dunkirk, every day. They are not expelled if they reach the British coast. Many people question Boris Johnson on the fact that they should be deported back to France or the country they originate from. That is why they voted Conservative," he remarked.

Cole's comments follow in the wake of an uptick in the numbers of migrants attempting to cross the English Channel from France to the UK. According to the BBC broadcaster on Saturday, eight boats carrying a record 145 migrants were intercepted by the UK Border Force on Friday.

Another pressing issue for the EU and UK to decide is the issue of the Irish border. The UK government must, if it is to keep the terms of the Good Friday Agreement that has kept peace in Northern Ireland, not establish a hard border with the Republic of Ireland. However, the lack of a hard border would constitute a violation of EU customs rules.

The EU has consistently said that for this to be the case, goods that travel to Northern Ireland from other parts of the United Kingdom must undergo customs checks, much to the chagrin of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, which has firmly opposed any border in the Irish Sea.

Johnson himself has previously said that there would no customs checks on goods traveling to Northern Ireland. However, earlier on Thursday, the Sky news broadcaster reported that the UK government has already informed Northern Ireland's devolved government that customs checks would be established at the end of the Brexit transition period.

These, and many more issues, remain on the table as the third round of negotiations continues.

SOLVING BREXIT VIA VIDEO CONFERENCE

When the UK left the European Union on January 31, few would have predicted that the negotiations on the future relationship between both parties would take place via video conference.

According to the Independent newspaper, it took weeks for EU and UK negotiators to agree on the viability of using video conferencing software. The newspaper cited an EU official who stated that London's negotiators were concerned over the security implications of holding the talks virtually.

In the new era of online politics, some in Brussels are praising the increasing role that video conferencing software has played in high-level talks.

"Meetings at a high level in the EU require a lot of politicians, with a lot of top civil servants in assistance, so when they work ... with representatives for each member state, plus the European Commission plus experts, it means that the person presiding needs to introduce everybody. Going once around the table, out of sheer politeness, means losing an hour in the best-case scenario, and the real points of discussion between key officials can only be dealt with much later," an EU official who spoke to Sputnik on the condition of anonymity said.

According to the official, holding Brexit talks via video conference will keep the negotiations on track.

"For the very politically charged negotiations on the Brexit practicalities, with the legal, financial and economic aspects, video conferencing has the advantage of keeping each participant on topic if she/he wants the floor ... The meeting can be faster and more focused," the official said.

It remains to be seen if the meetings can be conducted at the required pace to meet the December 31 deadline. Both parties are expected to hold high-level talks in June to assess the progress made since the start of the transition period, and although UK lead negotiator David Frost has admitted that positive steps have been taken toward a free trade deal, many points of contention remain.

While the UK was finally able to get Brexit done on January 31, getting Brexit decided in time appears to be a wholly different matter.