MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 29th April, 2020) The US plan to use the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran's nuclear program to force either an extension of an arms embargo against Tehran or to reimpose harsher sanctions on it seems to be not realistic, since other JCPOA signatories would certainly oppose this move given the fact that Washington had unilaterally withdrawn from the agreement, experts told Sputnik.
On April 26, the New York Times newspaper reported, citing sources in the US administration, that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was working on a plan to invoke a provision of the JCPOA to claim that the US formally remains a participating nation in the accord it had abandoned. According to the outlet, the US plans to force either an extension of the arms embargo against Iran or reimpose harsher sanctions if the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) declines to extend the arms embargo, which expires this year. The US will accuse Iran of violating the deal through producing nuclear fuel in amounts surpassing those envisioned by the agreement, according to the media outlet.
At the same time, Russia and China are "almost certain" to oppose the attempts to renew the arms embargo, the New York Times added.
In the wake of the publication, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Monday that Washington should "stop dreaming."
Dr. Gary Samore, a professor of the Practice of politics and Crown Family Director of the Crown Center for middle East Studies at US-based Brandeis University, believes that the US position on this issue is very weak. The expert suggested that the US and Russia might have sought to conclude an agreement on a new UN Security Council resolution that would restricts arms transfers to Iran, but expressed doubt regrading their ability to agree on the terms of a new resolution.
According to the expert, such an accord would create a precedent for Moscow to seek a relief from sanctions imposed following a conflict in Ukraine, and Washington is unlikely to make concessions in this area.
"The US legal argument that it remains a party to the JCPOA despite having withdrawn from the agreement two years ago is very weak. The remaining parties to the agreement � including Russia � will not accept Washington's claim that it can trigger the snapback provisions of UNSCR 2231 and extend the arms embargo on Iran, which expires in October," Samore told Sputnik.
SITUATION DEPENDS ON US ELECTION OUTCOME
Dr. Thomas E. Shea, an adjunct senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, considers that issues related to US actions within the JCPOA depend on who becomes the next US president. The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic will also have an impact on the situation around the JCPOA and further actions.
US Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is expected to become officially registered as the candidate in August and he plans to challenge incumbent President Donald Trump in the race for the White House. The US election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2020.
"It all depends on who wins the U.S. election in November. If Trump [wins], expect things to get worse ... If Biden wins, his cabinet will include some of the people that worked on the JCPOA and they will be eager to find how best to put the coalition back together. More than that is simply not constructive now," the analyst told Sputnik.
Joshua Pollack, a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the US' Monterey, also doubts that Washington would succeed in its plan to force the extension of the arms embargo against Iran through the JCPOA because such an action "would be flatly inconsistent with the previous announcement that the US is no longer a participant in the JCPOA."
"The trial balloon in the New York Times seems intended to convince other Security Council members to extend the arms embargo instead. Indeed, the story itself states openly that it is intended as a pressure tactic. It seems unlikely to get the intended results, so the real question may be whether the US is prepared to carry out its threat," the expert told Sputnik.
The JCPOA was signed by Iran, China, Russia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union in 2015. According to the agreement, Iran was set to scale back its nuclear program and severely downgrade its uranium reserves in exchange for sanctions relief.
In 2018, the United States abandoned its conciliatory policy on Iran and hit the country with comprehensive sanctions tailored to bring oil exports to zero. In response, Iran also discontinued its commitments under the nuclear agreement.
