MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 23rd January, 2020) The European Union's sanctions are unlikely to pressure Turkey into abandoning its drilling operations within the Cyprus exclusive economic zone in the eastern Mediterranean, experts told Sputnik.
Cyprus has been split between Greek and Turkish communities since 1974. Turkey's drilling operations in what Cyprus claims to be its exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean have long been a conflicted item between Ankara and Nicosia as the area in question is believed to be rich in hydrocarbon reserves. Both Ankara, which backs the independence movement of the Turkish Cypriots in the north of the island, and the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus, believe that exploration in this area is their inherent right.
On January 18, Peter Stano, the lead spokesman of the European Commission for external affairs, issued a statement, voicing concern over Ankara sending Yavuz drilling ship to in the EEZ, describing Turkey's drilling activities in the eastern Mediterranean as illegal.
Two days later, the EU foreign ministers asked the Council of Europe to prepare new measures against Turkey's business and individuals involved in the drilling operations, according to the EU foreign affairs commissioner, Josep Borrell.
This is not the first time Brussels threatened Ankara with sanctions over unlawful drilling. In July, the EU foreign ministers agreed to cut financial assistance to Ankara, and, in November 2019, they agreed on a mechanism for potential sanctions, but after that the EU has not done much. With the recent announcement things may change, but it is unknown what consequence it will have.
"The EU is likely to sanction named individuals involved in drilling activities inside Cyprus EEZ. Turkey's entry into Cyprus' block 8 [of the exclusive economic zone] makes that more likely. However, I do not believe that such sanctions will stop Turkey," Charles Ellinas, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center, told Sputnik.
His position is echoed by Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations at the middle East Technical University in Ankara.
"It could certainly harm but cannot prevent the drilling activities of Turkey, whatever decision the EU would take. Therefore this would be another wrong 'political decision' by the EU and the Turkey-EU relations will be further, unfortunately, damaged," he said.
The European Union has been a consistent proponent of finding a peaceful way to solve the territorial dispute between Cyprus and Turkey, however, due to the bad faith that has accumulated between the sides over the years. Nevertheless, some experts see negotiations as the only viable way forward.
"Given that it is unlikely the EU and the US will take any strong measures to deter Turkey, only negotiations can help resolve these problems. There are two possibilities. As the drilling disputes involve EEZ claims, negotiations between Greece and Turkey, ending up in possible referral to the International Court of Justice at the Hague, may help clarify the definition of what constitutes an EEZ in the Mediterranean and thus remove this area of dispute. Both Greece and Turkey have alluded to this," Ellinas said.
At the same time, the intransigence of both sides regarding the issue is unlikely to be conducive to effective negotiations, especially after Turkey signed a controversial memorandum on maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea, prompting an outcry not only from Cyprus but from Greece and Egypt as well. Ankara, however, has its own gripes, such as the recent EastMed pipeline project, launched by Greece, Cyprus, and Israel amid the ongoing row over borders, and Nicosia's insistence on sole rights to develop gas deposits off the island's shores.
"It would be fine but there will be no agreement because the Greek side is not interested in 'just sharing' of the natural resources. I think the situation will further escalate. But Italy is revising its position and İsrael moving in the same way. Turkey will pursue 'flexible diplomacy' to start the new talks and diplomatic relations with Israel and Egypt soon," professor Bagci opined.
As tensions over the drilling in the eastern Mediterranean escalate, the question that concerns many in Europe and elsewhere is how this crisis impacts Ankara's prospects of becoming a full-fledged EU member state.
"I am not sure that Turkey really aspires to join the EU anymore. In any case, this is unlikely in the medium term. Certainly, Turkey's current aggressive actions and intimidation of EU states preclude this from happening," the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center's fellow thinks.
According to professor Bagci, the Turkish people currently have little hope of joining the EU.
"It will be not possible anyway in the coming decade! At least the Turkish public believes so as the recent surveys show," he told Sputnik.
Despite the talks of EU membership being in limbo, it does not necessarily follow that relations between Brussels and Ankara will continue to sour.
"Both sides believe, however, in the benefit of keeping in touch and find new ways for possible cooperation. Turkey remains a key actor for EU security but without the membership issue. The European Union is well aware of that. The EU grand strategy does not intend to 'lose Turkey' and certainly will find mechanisms to keep Turkey anchored in Europe. It has become a relationship of 'neither with Turkey nor without Turkey.' I think the EU should make more efforts to regain Turkey and to refresh the interest of Turkish public in the EU membership process," Bagci concluded.
What is likely is that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will remain committed to the exploration of gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean, ready to respond to any backlash from neighboring countries and the European Union.
