MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 22nd January, 2020) The chances for a lasting ceasefire in Libya remain ephemeral due to various third parties being involved in the crisis, experts told Sputnik, following the Berlin conference on the political settlement in the country.
Last Sunday, the German city of Berlin hosted an international conference on the settlement of the crisis in Libya, which has been ongoing since the ouster and assassination of then-Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
The participants, including Russia, the United States, Turkey, Egypt, the European Union and the United Nations, welcomed a permanent ceasefire announced on January 12 by the country's two rival factions - the Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj, and the Libyan National Army (LNA), headed by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed hope that the conference would lead to a "chance that the ceasefire will be held."
Despite the cautious optimism shared by many countries and politicians across the globe, the fact that Field Marshal Haftar left Berlin without signing a ceasefire agreement taints optimistic expectations.
"You will note that Haftar did not sign up to the ceasefire and even blockaded oil terminals to demonstrate his rejection of the EU-UN attempt to impose a ceasefire," George Joffe, a professor specializing in the middle East and North Africa at King's College London, told Sputnik, saying that the ceasefire effort is just an attempt by the EU and the UN trying to maintain their relevance.
The professor mentioned Haftar's own political plans which do not involve peaceful political settlement, which is plausible considering he also refrained from signing a ceasefire agreement during his Moscow talks with Sarraj on January 13, in contrast with the GNA delegation, which did sign the ceasefire agreement.
"He also has his own agenda, backed by Egypt and the UAE (with France not too far behind), of restoring peace through violence now that he controls Sirt as a forward base for his coalition," Professor Joffe said.
The LNA enjoys the tacit support of Russia, which uses the conflict in Libya to forewarn Ankara that Moscow's interests in Syria cannot be ignored, according to the expert.
"If Turkey does not take the hint, Haftar can remind Erdogan where really power lies!" Joffe said.
The heavy involvement of both Moscow and Ankara could mean that the chances for peace in Libya depend on the goodwill between the two powers.
"Both Moscow and Ankara have shared a close cooperation in the Syrian context. If that is any proof that partnership would help guarantee some form of settlement in Libya. But if Russian and Turkish relationship runs off course that would have detrimental effect on what goes on in Libya," Amalendu Misra, a senior lecturer in the Department of politics, Philosophy and Religion at Lancaster University, told Sputnik.
Nevertheless, it is unlikely that Ankara will simply back down from Libya, no matter what turn its relations with Russia will take, especially considering its military cooperation agreement with the GNA and sending Syrian militants to fight against Haftar's forces.
"Turkey is interested in establishing itself as a hegemonic power in North Africa as well as in the Middle East but needs Russian support ... Libya is merely a side show to its interests in the Middle East (where the Turkish and Syrian intelligence heads have just met to plan the way forward in Syria, as a result of Russian pressure on both of them). Turkey also means to use Libya as part of its argument over the Eastern Mediterranean gas pipeline by reviving its argument of the common Turkish-Libyan maritime boundary," Joffe stated outlining Ankara's geopolitical ambitions.
Such deep interests and involvement of foreign actors in the Libyan crisis make it hard to sustain a lasting ceasefire.
"The ceasefire would hold for the time being but since there are too many external powers involved and there are fractious groups on the ground, keeping peace in the long run will be an arduous task," Misra said.
When asked by Sputnik if the military committee, established during the Berlin conference, would be able to facilitate the political settlement in the country, both experts shared a healthy dose of skepticism over its peacemaking prospects.
"Such a body can create temporary truce between the warring parties. But this is going to be an uneasy truce. The moment one of the parties feels it is not taken seriously, it would pull the plug from the military arrangement which would lead to a breakdown of order and return to civil war like scenario," Misra responded, while Joffe simply said "Absolutely not!"
Meanwhile, according to German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, the participants of the Libyan peace process, are set to gather in Berlin in early February for a follow-up conference.
