RPT: ANALYSIS - Prospects For Berlin Conference Dim As Libyan Parties Seem Reluctant To Negotiate

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 15th January, 2020) The prospects for the upcoming Berlin conference on Libya are now weakened given that Monday's talks between the warring parties, which ended with Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar refusing to sign a peace deal with the Tripoli-based government, have revealed an ongoing reluctance to negotiate, experts told Sputnik.

Russia and Turkey mediated talks between Haftar and the head of the rival Government of National Accord (GNA), Fayez Sarraj, in Moscow on Monday in the hopes of getting a ceasefire agreement concluded. After hours of negotiations, Haftar requested extra time to review the draft deal and left Moscow shortly thereafter.

Earlier in the day, the German cabinet officially announced that Haftar and Sarraj, along with representatives of the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Egypt, UAE, Algeria, the Republic of the Congo, the United Nations, the European Union, the African Union and the Arab League, had been invited to participate in a conference on the matter, which will be held on Sunday.

While noting that one should not pin hopes on the upcoming gathering in Berlin, Andrey Chuprygin, a Russian International Affairs Council expert and senior lecturer at Moscow's Higher school of Economics, told Sputnik that the meeting could give an impetus to the emergence of new approaches to resolving the conflict.

"I do not expect much, because the Libyan sides are currently unable to negotiate with each other, but some movement towards a road map, a new modality for resolving the current situation, is possible," Chuprygin told Sputnik.

The expert added that Haftar was unlikely to agree to the ceasefire agreement proposed in Moscow since it stipulated the return to the April 2019 status quo, which for the LNA would mean the loss of its positions in Sirte and southern Tripoli, its largest military achievements of the past few weeks.

"Second, the agreement stipulates that Sarraj retains the position of commander-in-chief of Libya if a government of national unity is created. Both of these options are like death to Haftar, and he will not agree to them on any terms ... From 2014 to the present day, he has put too many resources and efforts � political, moral and material � to reach his ambitious dream. He will not give up until the end," he said.

George Joffe, a professor specializing in the middle East and North Africa at King's College London, echoed Chuprygin's view that Haftar would not agree to the proposed ceasefire agreement.

"Now that he controls Sirte, he has the forward base from which to threaten both Misrata and Tripoli. And he has Egyptian and Emirati air support and arms supplies to make the threat credible. The Turkish threat is, I think he calculates, not serious as the forces involved are Syrian mercenaries who will be operating outside their normal arena," Joffe told Sputnik.

Chuprygin also said that the Moscow talks shared some similarities with the Astana format on Syria, in that the latter also focused on bringing irreconcilable parties to the negotiating table.

"But there are also differences, because the Libyan crisis is, of course, different from the Syrian one. In particular, there are a lot of external actors, which plays an important role in all issues related to the development of events in Libya," Chuprygin said.

Asli Aydintasbas, senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, also noted recurring themes in the Libyan and Syrian settlement processes.

"Russia was very active in pushing for a ceasefire and it was clear that Turkish-Russian initiative was in part filling the vacuum from European and American diplomacy. The Libyan crisis is resembling the Syrian one in many ways � US and Europe being absent and Russia and Turkey stepping in," she told Sputnik.

The expert warned, however, that if Europe failed to boost its diplomatic efforts toward achieving peace in Libya, the settlement process would stall.

Joffe similarly pointed out that Russia had asserted itself as key mediator in the Libyan conflict by hosting the intra-Libyan talks ahead of the Berlin conference.

"Mr. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has very successfully upstaged the German government and marginalized France whilst rendering Italy (originally the strongest proponent of the GNA) virtually irrelevant," he said.

Speaking about international mediation, Aydintasbas said that Turkey needed to let Russia and Germany take the lead in communicating with the warring parties in order to persuade Haftar to pause his advance on Tripoli.

"I think Turkey's involvement in Libya was a game changer in terms of bringing a ceasefire and possibility of a truce. But in order to convince Haftar and his backers to stop their march, Ankara might have to take a backseat ... So Russian and German mediation could be more fruitful," she said.

On Sunday, LNA and GNA announced a ceasefire in the country, effectively halting the months-long LNA offensive to take the GNA-held capital of Tripoli. Yet, a Libyan military source told Sputnik earlier in the day that the GNA's forces had attacked LNA positions in Tripoli.