After winning the reelection in a landslide victory on Saturday, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is likely to face mounting pressure from domestic supporters to adjust the status of the self-ruled island when Beijing forces more countries to sever diplomatic ties with it, experts told Sputnik
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 13th January, 2020) After winning the reelection in a landslide victory on Saturday, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is likely to face mounting pressure from domestic supporters to adjust the status of the self-ruled island when Beijing forces more countries to sever diplomatic ties with it, experts told Sputnik.
Tsai won a second term in office after receiving about 8.17 million votes, or 57.1% of overall votes, during Saturday's presidential election in Taiwan, where the local population was about 23 million. Following Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) experienced humiliating defeat during the local elections in Taiwan in November 2018, her chances of winning the reelection in 2020 looked rather grim because of lackluster economic performance during her first two years in office.
After Tsai took office in 2016, Beijing adopted a strategy of trying to isolate Taiwan to punish the DPP's pro-independence stance. Seven countries have severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan in favor of China after Tsai's first presidential term started, dropping the number of countries with formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan to 15.
However, more than six months of pro-democracy protests in neighboring Hong Kong gave Tsai a much-needed boost, when the DPP leader took advantage of the fears of locals in Taiwan who worried that reunification with China could bring similar repression as Hong Kongers faced.
During her acceptance speech on Saturday, Tsai once again stressed that her victory demonstrated how much people in Taiwan valued their democratic way of life and freedom.
"To begin, I would like to thank everyone who voted today. Regardless of how you voted, by taking part in this election you have put democratic values into practice. With each presidential election, Taiwan is showing the world how much we cherish our free, democratic way of life, and how much we cherish our nation: the Republic of China (Taiwan)," Tsai said.
In response to Tsai's victory, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Geng Shuang reiterated that the position of the Chinese government was to stick to the "One China" principle and oppose any attempt by Taiwan to seek independence.
Tsai could be forced to explain to her supporters why she is still hesitant to declare Taiwan's independence after the self-ruled island loses all of its remaining allies under pressure from China during her second term in office, political analysts pointed out.
"The issue is whether Tsai has a grand strategy. It's understandable that she doesn't want to engage in negotiations with China. But she also doesn't want to declare Taiwan's independence, because her priority is to maintain the 'status quo.' It'll be impossible for her to maintain this 'status quo,' when Taiwan keeps losing its allies and can't participate in international organizations. If you want to stress Taiwan's sovereignty, how can you do that when there's no country in the world recognize the Republic of China officially? When that happens, I believe Tsai will face pressure to explain to those pro-independence supporters who may suggest to change the name to the Republic of Taiwan," Yen Chenshen, a researcher at the Institute of International relations, National Chengchi University in Taiwan, told Sputnik.
The Republic of China was established in 1912 after Chinese revolutionists overthrew the Qing Dynasty, ending over 2000 years of feudal dynasties in the country. At the end of the civil war in China in 1949, the defeated Nationalist Party retreated to Taiwan and continued to rule the island under the name of the Republic of China.
The Taiwan scholar warned that any changes to the status of the Republic of China could be viewed by Beijing as Tsai changing the "status quo" and could lead to military interventions.
"If you change the name of the Republic of China, it could lead to military conflicts. That's because removing the idea of the Republic of China basically means you're declaring Taiwan's independence. That's why it's important to keep the idea of the Republic of China,"
During a speech addressed to the people of Taiwan in early January 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China would not pledge to give up military means as a necessary option for reunification with Taiwan.
Professor Yen noted that pressure from China could have helped Tsai rally support among Taiwan voters who are wary of Beijing's ambitions.
"I think the DPP administration believes that more pressure from China could help it win elections in Taiwan. The DPP could use the pressure to rally domestic support. It's similar to nationalism. Some even joked that Xi Jinping was the best electoral assistant for Tsai," he said.
Other political analysts argued that Tsai won the election not because how popular she was among Taiwan voters, but because how much people in Taiwan were scared of China.
"Personally, I believe the recent presidential election in Taiwan was more about China than the self-ruled island. During the local election at the end of 2018, people basically just gave up on Tsai and her DPP. So how did Tsai turned things around with over 8 million votes after only 1.5 years? It's not about how great Tsai was, otherwise she couldn't have lost so badly in 2018. It's very obvious that this election was affected by external factors. Tsai has to thank the people of Hong Kong, whose protests made people in Taiwan realize the problems with the 'one country, two systems' arrangement," Xu Guoqi, a history professor specializing in US-China relations at Hong Kong University, told Sputnik.
After the handover of Hong Kong from the United Kingdom to China in 1997, the former British colony was allowed to keep its existing economic and political system under an arrangement known as "one country, two systems," proposed by late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping. Chinese leaders expressed hopes that China's reunification with Taiwan could be achieved under similar arrangements.
Triggered by a controversial extradition bill, massive protests in Hong Kong began in June last year and evolved into a wide pro-democracy movement demanding Chinese authorities in Beijing to fulfill their commitment to democratic rights in Hong Kong including universal suffrage.
"It's very obvious that Tsai benefited from the misjudgment from Chinese leaders on the situation in Hong Kong and responses from the international community. Such election results in Taiwan will only hurt China's interests because peaceful reunification with Taiwan has become almost impossible," Professor Xu said.
The Hong Kong-based expert pointed out that deteriorating bilateral relations between China and the United States could lead to Washington to alter its stance on Taiwan and the "One China" policy.
"I just returned from the United States after eight months. People there have been talking about 'decoupling' with China. Even during the 1960s, there were still some US scholars who advocate for engagement with China. Today, almost everyone in the United States doesn't work with China anymore. Let's not forget Taiwan represented China on the global stage before 1979. The United States could backtrack on its commitment to the 'One China' policy," he said.
Professor Xu suggested only democratic reforms could help China win over the hearts of young people in Taiwan and Hong Kong.
However, Professor Yen from Taiwan argued that even a democratic China would probably not be enough to attract some of the pro-independent young people in Taiwan, who grew up not identifying as being part of China.
