Iran Likely To Refrain From New Direct Attacks On US Unless Latter Makes First Step

Iran Likely to Refrain From New Direct Attacks on US Unless Latter Makes First Step

Iran will hardly resort to directly attacking the United States again unless the latter makes the first step, but a proxy conflict between the two countries in the region will continue and may only intensify, experts told Sputnik

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 10th January, 2020) Iran will hardly resort to directly attacking the United States again unless the latter makes the first step, but a proxy conflict between the two countries in the region will continue and may only intensify, experts told Sputnik.

In the early hours of Wednesday, Iran fired dozens of missiles at Iraqi bases housing American personnel in retaliation for the assassination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani by the US in Baghdad last week. The Islamic republic said that the strike was legitimate and was carried in self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter. Tehran added that it had no interest in further escalation after the top general's death had been "avenged."

At a press conference a few hours after Iran's strike, US President Donald Trump assured his nation that all was well, no one was hurt and that the damage was minimal, thereby backing down from his previous threat of a "disproportionate" response to any retaliation from Tehran.

He instead unveiled additional "punishing" economic sanctions on Iran.

'HOT WAR' IN NO ONE'S INTERESTS

Experts mainly agree that the nature of Iran's attack on US military bases shows that Tehran plans no steps that would put it in direct military confrontation with Washington, unless the latter takes new hostile action.

"My expectation is that as long as the USA does not launch any more attacks, Iran will launch no more direct attacks (the last ones were obviously carefully planned so as not to cause any casualties)," Anatol Lieven, a professor from Georgetown University school of Foreign Service in Qatar, told Sputnik.

The US similarly seems to have taken a wait-and-see approach.

"I believe that President Trump is sincerely disinterested in undertaking any military action against Iran. As long as Iran does not push him to that point, the US will not take any such action. So I believe it is Iran's responsibility not to provoke the US," Birol Baskan, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based middle East Institute, told Sputnik.

Yet, the situation is so unstable that "even small accidents could set off military conflict," M. V. Ramana of the University of British Columbia's Liu Institute for Global Issues warns.

The current developments around Ukraine International Airlines' Boeing 737 that crashed near Tehran shortly after Iran attacked the US bases in Iraq actually prove it. The US, UK and Canadian authorities have already claimed that an Iranian missile could have downed the passenger plane. Tehran has already dismissed the claims as a "psychological warfare" against Iran.

According to Ramana, anti-war protests in the US and the Congress' effort to block funding for military action now seem to be most useful to calm tensions down.

Professor Lieven, in turn, suggested that the only institution that could "restrain" the Trump administration was the Pentagon.

While a direct US-Iran military conflict is unlikely, experts do not rule out that Tehran may instead intensify regional confrontation with Washington via its alleged proxies in the region.

"I expect a great increase in Iranian aid to the Taliban intended to drive the USA out of Afghanistan; and the encouragement of attacks on US targets in Iraq by Shia militia," Lieven said.

As for sanctions, professor found it hard to suggest how much further the US could go without imposing an actual naval blockade, "which would likely lead to war, send oil prices through the roof and cause immense tension with China," an importer of Iranian oil.

Baskan of the Middle East Institute believes that new sanctions will deliver another blow to the already ailing Iranian economy and "might trigger further street protests."

Ramana shares the view, saying that the new restrictions will "further worsen Iran's economy and make life for common Iranians even more difficult." According to the expert, the world simply cannot do without a "long-term multilateral strategy" to circumvent US' Iran sanctions, given the Dollar's role in international trade.