RPT: ANALYSIS - US Troops Will Have To Leave If Baghdad Requests, Pullout To Benefit Iran, Russia

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 07th January, 2020) US troops will have no other legal option but to leave Iraq if the latter officially requests them to do so pursuant to the legislature's recommendation, with the pullout likely to play into the hands of Iran and Russia, experts told Sputnik.

On Sunday, the Iraqi parliament voted to cut ties with the US-led coalition and expel all foreign troops from the country after an American drone attack near the Baghdad airport killed Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and a senior member of Iraq's Iranian-backed militia.

US President Donald Trump, in turn, threatened Iraq with "sanctions like they've never seen before ever," saying that American troops will not leave the country unless Baghdad pays back for his country's "very extraordinarily expensive airbase" located there.

On Monday, the Iraqi armed forces yet said that the uncoordinated US strike in Baghdad had made it impossible for the latter to "remain silent."

The Iraqi military spokesman said that the international coalition's activities would be reduced to consultations, arms deliveries and training, while all foreign troops would leave the country. The government also ordered to restrict the coalition forces' ground and aerial movements across the country.

According to experts, if the government finally officially asks the United States to withdraw troops, Washington will have to do it, which, however, will unlikely mean the end to American operations on Iraqi soil.

"If the Iraqi government officially requests that US forces leave, the US will do so. There is no question on this because the US will not have a legal basis for staying on. But it won't prevent the US from occasionally violating Iraqi sovereignty to conduct military strikes within Iraq's territory in the future whenever major US interests are at stake," Kanishkan Sathasivam, a professor of International relations of the Department of Political Science at Salem State University, told Sputnik.

According to Sathasivam, Mahdi is "very openly pro-Iran" and will likely seek to implement the legislature's non-binding decision before new elections that the pro-Iranian majority in the current parliament may not survive.

Anatol Lieven, a professor from Georgetown University school of Foreign Service in Qatar, similarly expects that Iraq will at least try to see the American military presence in the country reduced. Iran has notably vowed revenge against the US for the killing of its top commander.

"The government will now be terrified of attacks on US troops in Iraq, turning Iraq into the centre of a new war. So I would certainly expect Baghdad to try to push the USA into at least greatly reducing its visible presence on the ground," Lieven told Sputnik.

According to the expert, if the US does withdraw troops, it will be "another significant success" for Iran and Russia.

"The question however will be just how thoroughly ISIS [Islamic State terrorist group, banned in Russia] have been beaten in northern Iraq. If they stage a major comeback after the US withdrawal, then the Iraqi government would have either to ask the Americans back, or appeal for help to Russia and Iran," he stated.

Lieven added that, though "US airpower was critical to the eventual defeat of ISIS in Iraq," these were actually Al Quds and Soleimani, branded by Trump as a "murderer" and terrorist, that stopped the terror group from capturing Baghdad in 2014 when the Iraqi army on the ground collapsed.

"If Sunni Islamist terrorism is the greatest threat to the USA and the West, then on the principle that my enemy's enemy is my friend one could almost regard Soleimani as a kind of de facto US ally; certainly a better one than Saudi Arabia and Israel have proved over the years," the expert said.

Saudi refineries, ports and tankers will likely become targets if Iran does strike back, Lieven said. He also did not rule out that Tehran may step up support for the Taliban in Afghanistan.

In addition, the crisis may also entail new oil market shocks.

As for a possible way out of the current escalation, the expert suggested that "if Russia and China offer to give really strong backing to Iran on condition of restraint, that might possibly deter both the Iranians and the Americans from escalating."