MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 12th December, 2019) China is unlikely to join any nuclear arms agreement with Russia and the United States in the near future, before the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expires in early 2021, Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the US-based Arms Control Association, told Sputnik.
"The chances are very low at this time. Beijing, Trump claims, is 'extremely excited about getting involved' and would 'certainly' be brought into such a deal. But there is no realistic possibility of concluding a new trilateral deal with Russia and China before New START expires in 2021. Negotiations would take time, and China would need to be interested in such a deal," Kimball said, when asked about the chances of China's joining a new nuclear arms control framework along with the US and Russia.
He also recalled that Beijing had repeatedly said it was interested in a numerical limits-based arms control deal, since it has just about 300 nuclear warheads, compared to over 6,000 that Russia and the US have each.
"A more realistic approach on China would be for the United States and Russia agree to extend New START, then begin talks on a follow-on treaty that sets limits well below those of New START if China, and perhaps France and the U.K. agree not to increase the size of its stockpile and adopt some transparency measures," Kimball said.
However, such an arrangement would be difficult to reach and would likely take years to achieve, he added.
US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly said he wanted to bring China in as a signatory, may ask Moscow to assist him in getting Beijing to become part of a new deal, Edward Lozansky, the president of the American University in Moscow, said.
"I believe Trump wants Moscow to use its influence with China to bring it to the table," Lozansky said.
He also noted that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's visit to Washington on the heels of the Normandy Four format meeting was just a coincidence.
"Trump, contrary to Congress and the 'Deep State,' wants Europe to take care of the Ukraine crisis and he knows that [French President Emmanuel] Macron and [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel do not want him to mess things around," Lozansky said.
During his visit to Washington on Tuesday, Lavrov met with Trump and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, to discuss nuclear arms control and Ukraine, among other topics.
New START is the last remaining arms control treaty in force between Russia and the United States. Signed in 2010, the pact stipulates that the number of strategic nuclear missiles launchers must be cut by half and limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550. Russia has repeatedly stated its readiness to extend the New START treaty without any preconditions, but the US is yet undecided about the extension.
