The US Senate's decision to pass the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act could severely affect the chances of the United States reaching an agreement with China to resolve the bilateral trade disputes, experts told Sputnik
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 20th November, 2019) The US Senate's decision to pass the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act could severely affect the chances of the United States reaching an agreement with China to resolve the bilateral trade disputes, experts told Sputnik.US senators voted unanimously on Tuesday in support of the new legislation allowing the US president and various government agencies to review Hong Kong's human rights conditions annually and punish China over perceived rights violations. A similar bill was passed in the US House of Representatives unanimously in October.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned the new US legislation at once.
"This act neglects facts and truth, applies double standards and blatantly interferes in Hong Kong affairs and China's other internal affairs. It is in serious violation of international law and basic norms governing international relations. China condemns and firmly opposes it," the Chinese ministry's spokesman Geng Shuang said in a statement on Wednesday.
The massive protests began in Hong Kong in June over a controversial extradition bill, which was officially withdrawn in October. Frustrated with the local authorities' heavy-handed responses to the protests, the demonstrators expanded their demands to add an independent investigation into alleged police brutality and greater civil liberties, including universal suffrage.
Beijing has repeatedly stated that the situation in Hong Kong is a result of foreign interference in China's domestic affairs and expressed full support for the actions of the local authorities.
US President Donald Trump has refrained from voicing harsh criticism over how the Chinese government and local authorities in Hong Kong responded to the protests in recent months after the demonstrators alleged serious brutality and human rights violations committed by police officers. Critics argued that Trump's hesitance resulted from his willingness to reach a trade deal with China, which could play an important role in his reelection campaign for the upcoming 2020 US presidential election.
However, political analysts pointed out that the new Hong Kong related legislation passed unanimously in both the US Senate and House of Representatives, leaving little room for Trump to refuse signing the new bill into law.
"It's actually just one bill. In the US democracy, there's going to be something called 'reconciliation.' The US Congress is going to transform them into one bill. Trump will sign it for sure because it passed through both the Senate and the House of Representatives unanimously. It'll be problematic on many levels for him to veto it," Christopher Balding, an associate professor at Fulbright University Vietnam who used to teach at the HSBC business school in Shenzhen, told Sputnik.
The US scholar suggested that the new US bill on Hong Kong could become a roadblock for both countries to reach a trade deal.
"China is going to be very angry. Make no mistake about that. They're not going to be understanding. China is not known to be an 'understanding' country. If the bill [on Hong Kong] goes through, I think you can expect at least there's going to be no trade deal for a while," he said.
Amid rising bilateral trade frictions after the Trump administration slapped steep tariffs on Chinese goods, top trade negotiators from both countries have been engaged in intense negotiations to resolve the dispute through a trade deal.
During China's top trade negotiator Vice Premier Liu He's visit to Washington in October, Trump announced that both sides had reached a "substantial phase one deal," which was expected to be finalized in the near future. However, after the APEC Summit in mid-November was canceled in Chile, where Trump was supposed to be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign the trade deal, both sides appeared to be struggling to finalize the new "phase one" trade deal.
After China demanded the United States to remove existing US tariffs on Chinese goods as part of the new trade deal, Trump again threatened on Tuesday to raise the tariffs higher if no trade deal is reached with China.
Nevertheless, Chinese political analysts argued that Beijing could accept a trade deal with the United States, even if Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law.
"It's meaningless for Xi to refuse to sign the trade deal with Trump over the new Hong Kong bill. It could lead China-US relations down to a very dangerous path. China-US relations today largely rely on personal relationships between Xi and Trump. If Xi breaks this, it'll have a very negative impact on China-US relations. That's why I don't think the Hong Kong bill will affect the "phase one" deal between the two countries," Wu Qiang, a former politics professor at Beijing's prestigious Tsinghua University, told Sputnik.
Wu acknowledged that it would be unlikely for Trump to veto the new bill after it passed through both the US Senate and the House of Representatives unanimously.
During the 1990s, the United States would only grant "most favored nation" status to China following annual reviews of humans rights conditions in the country.
Professor Balding pointed out that the new US bill on Hong Kong could be a signal that the United States began to pay more attention to human rights issues again when dealing with China.
"I think what it [the bill] signifies is that all of a sudden, you're seeing questions related to human rights and democracy become much more important in that equation. Companies and the US government are no long saying: 'as long as the trade continues to increase, everything is fine.' They're clearly saying: 'there're certain values that America needs to stand up for. Even if it means we're not going to ship soybeans to China, we're willing to accept that as a price for saying we need to stand up for Hong Kong democracy,'" he said.
The US expert explained that the United States could introduce economic and financial sanctions against China over what it viewed as human rights violations.
Professor Wu suggested that Chinese authorities could simply respond to such US allegations by promoting its model of governance and presenting an alternative narrative.
"Beijing has been trying to promote its model of governance, which could be used to avoid allegations of human rights violations. When handling a certain crisis, it could also justify its responses under the name of counter-terrorism. When you bring up human rights issues, Beijing will counter that by discussing governance. When you talk about self-determination or autonomy in places like Xinjiang or Hong Kong, Beijing would bring up counter-terrorism. This is the kind of counter narratives Beijing tries to present today," he said.
Wu added that Beijing could also try to boost its support in the international community by increasing financial aids and loans to developing countries.
