LONDON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 19th October, 2019) UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit deal will likely fail in a crucial vote in parliament on Saturday, given that pro-remain lawmakers will likely outnumber his party without the support of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist allies, the leader of the Communist Party told Sputnik.
The new draft deal was endorsed by EU leaders on Thursday but the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up Johnson's minority Conservative government, has refused to back it after it was denied a veto when the region's devolved assembly votes on whether to follow EU customs rules.
"Quite honestly I doubt very much it will pass. It doesn't seem to be the case. The calculations made before now that assumed the DUP would support an agreement have indicated it would be really close either way. You take those DUP votes out and it does seem to more or less sink it, mathematically," Robert Griffiths said.
Much is still unclear about the new deal but what surprised Johnson's critics is that he had reached consensus with EU officials on overcoming long-term obstacles such as the Irish "backstop."
Under the new potential arrangements, Northern Ireland will exit the EU customs union alongside the rest of the United Kingdom at the end of the transitional period in December 2020, although with the UK enforcing EU customs procedures at points of entry into the six counties in accordance with the final destination of the goods in question.
It is this last point that has proven particularly controversial with the unionist community, given that its loss of a clear majority in 2017 elections has increased fears that Brussels and Dublin may have too much influence over future trade rules.
If Johnson's new Brexit bill is defeated, however, the prime minister will "almost certainly" push for a general election and make the contest about Labour's apparent reticence to deliver a workable Brexit, a scenario that would much reduce their chances of making ground with euroskeptic voters, Griffiths said.
"He [Johnson] will hammer Labour for that, and if Labour continue moving towards the position where they define themselves as a 'remain and reform' party I'd say it would make it very difficult for them to win a general election," Griffiths added.
He went on to claim that Labour's prospects in a general election depended on it voting to pass the "divorce" deal to get Brexit out of the way and focus on addressing other issues, a tactic that would allow them to play upon arguably popular policies aimed at reversing years of government austerity.
"I think it would be better for Labour to have this agreement pass tomorrow. It would then open up the possibility that the next general election would be about something other than Brexit. That would allow Labour to play its strong cards on other issues where it has potentially popular policies," he stressed.
However, if there is a general election, "then even worse, Labour is identified in the public line with Remain, that would put them into a corner," he added.
The prime minister remains bound by parliament through the Benn Act to seek an extension to Brexit talks in the event his deal does not gain the favor of lawmakers, something he has previously stated he would rather "die in a ditch" than comply with.
In the event of another extension, the UK may face a number of choices, including a possible second referendum on EU membership, as well as the more likely scenario of a general election to decide a future government.
