UK's Johnson To Benefit From Either Reaction To New Brexit Proposal - Former Ambassador

LONDON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 04th October, 2019) UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's new proposals for the post-Brexit Irish border may yet be taken seriously by the European Union but, if not, the scheme is generous enough for him to use EU's rejection in a possible re-election campaign, a former Irish ambassador to Canada told Sputnik on Thursday.

"It's a clever offer and it's gone further than people thought but it still basically breaks down their [Dublin's] inviolable laws. If the EU accepts this, Johnson's done very well but if they don't then he's gone further than people thought and it will be part of an election platform, I imagine," Ray Bassett said.

As part of the latest efforts to find a way forward in Brexit negotiations, Johnson revealed new measures on Wednesday to circumvent the previously rejected backstop for the Irish border and ensure the United Kingdom exits the EU with an appropriate deal on October 31.

Johnson's new proposals revolve around the creation of an all-Ireland regulatory framework on cross-border trade, something that would ideally ensure Northern Ireland exits the EU customs union along with the rest of the UK while still ensuring compliance with European standards on goods.

"I think there was some surprise that he compromised so much on Ireland and included industrial goods in an all-Ireland [regulatory] regime. That surprised some ... I'm sure in the EU capitals they are talking and musing on it," Bassett said.

He predicted that the Irish government "may be worried this would get more traction than they thought it would" given that Johnson obviously had the agreement of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party in that. "But if it's just a ploy it shows he's willing to go further than they thought he would," he added.

The former ambassador went on to criticize both sides to the argument, however, arguing that Dublin and London's proposals on post-Brexit trade thus far would have always involved some form of customs checks on goods passing between their respective markets.

"If you go down the route that the Irish government went down, which was the route that you couldn't have any changes from the single market then you're going to have some type of customs inspections," he stressed.

Yet Eoin O'Malley, a professor of political science at Dublin City University, told Sputnik some compromise on customs arrangements may now be necessary, given the results of a no-deal Brexit would involve the hard border that both parties have been eager to avoid.

"The backstop has become totemic for both Ireland and the Unionists - one holds it like a treasure, the other hates it. It's unrealistic to think Brexit won't happen, so Ireland and the EU need to figure a way to get to least worst options, and some unobtrusive customs controls might need to be part of that," he said.

The possibility of future customs checks has also continued to cause some alarm, given repeat mention of "technological" solutions to avoid hard infrastructure along the border has consistently failed to win the confidence of lawmakers in Dublin and Brussels.

Of particular concern, however, is the ability of the Northern Ireland's devolved government to hold a veto on such a deal, with the proposed mechanism only coming into force in the event the currently inactive Stormont assembly votes in its favor by December 2020. From that point on, Stormont would have to give its renewed assent every four years, a proposal the EU claims could cause the entire protocol to unravel.