The now widely publicized July phone call between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which has triggered a most likely doomed-to-fail impeachment inquiry against the former at home, could also entail foreign political consequences, specifically with regard to Ukraine's relationships with the European Union and the United States, experts told Sputnik
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 26th September, 2019) The now widely publicized July phone call between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which has triggered a most likely doomed-to-fail impeachment inquiry against the former at home, could also entail foreign political consequences, specifically with regard to Ukraine's relationships with the European Union and the United States, experts told Sputnik.It all began with a whistleblower, who reportedly was so troubled by Trump's alleged attempt to solicit a foreign campaign contribution that he filed an official complaint with the inspector general of national intelligence. After just two days, the scandal did what the Russiagate saga could not for over two years � the US House of Representatives announced its intention to move forward with an official impeachment inquiry against the president.
In response, Trump released the transcript of his conversation with Zelenskyy at the latter's consent. According to the read-out, Trump did indeed ask Zelenskyy to investigate political rival Joe Biden and his son Hunter, but he did not explicitly threaten to withhold US military aid to Ukraine.
Aside from that, the conversation featured both leaders voicing some harsh criticism against the European Union, specifically German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, over "not doing quite as much as they need to do" and not as much as the United States does for Ukraine.
Article II, Section 4 of US Constitution stipulates that "The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanor." Alexander Hamilton in The Federalist papers would later clarify impeachable offenses as "those offenses which proceed from the misconduct of public men, or, in other words, from the abuse or violation of some public trust."
As House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi was announcing the launch of impeachment probe, she accused Trump of "betrayal of his oath of office, betrayal of our national security, and betrayal of the integrity of our elections." Whether this will be enough to result in the president's actual dismissal is subject to a multi-stage procedure, which, in fact, has never happened in US history.
First, the House of Representatives must introduce an impeachment resolution, which has to be supported by the majority of the lower chamber's Judiciary Committee. Next, the House has to vote in a simple majority on whether the president should be impeached. The case is then reviewed in a Senate trial, and if two-thirds of senators vote to convict, the president is removed from office. It is at this stage that all previous impeachment cases got turned down, chiefly because Senate votes were split along party lines. So even if the case gets through the Democrat-held lower chamber, the Republican-held Senate would have to see a mass betrayal in order for Trump to be removed.
"Everyone understands that the impeachment procedure has zero chances to succeed, because it needs to be voted in the Senate where the majority belongs to the Republicans. So impeachment affair is a political maneuver of the Democrats to hamper Trump's re-election. And it is a purely media-related maneuver because themselves they know it doesn't stand a chance," Thierry Mariani, French member of the European Parliament, told Sputnik.
Nevertheless, there are internal micro-struggles within the Republican Party that might actually give the impeachment course in an unexpected inclination, Mark Sleboda, an international relations and security analyst, told Sputnik.
"The Republicans currently have a majority in the Senate 53-47. This would seem to make a successful impeachment of Trump in the Senate next to impossible. However, it is no secret that the Republican Party elite do not like Donald Trump and did not want him to be their candidate for the President. That attitude has not changed in the last 3 years except to be self-repressed. Many of them would be glad to see Trump gone and the arch-conservative Vice President Mike Pence take his place," Sleboda said.
The expert emphasized that impeachment was a political process rather than a judicial one and therefore subject to the political currents of the moment.
"A combination of personal ambition combined with a belief that Trump is bad for the Republican Party and likely to lose re-election in 2020 anyway, could make some Senate Republicans take the risk and consider making a deal with the Democrats to impeach Trump. It is still an unlikely scenario, but it is not impossible," Sleboda added.
According to Belgian lawmaker Frank Creyelman, the entire situation the Zelenskyy call and subsequent release of its transcript could even be Trump's way of attracting loyalty of some Democrats.
"The impeachment motion against Trump was more than expected. The Clintongang was working in that since Trump got elected. The vengeance of deep state guys and democrats has been going since Trump's elections. To get closer to the deep state, Trump needs to make some efforts to get them on his side. The telephone call between him and Zelenskyy must be seen in that strategy. Trump needs to be seen as an opposer towards Russia. The Ukraine case needs to help him with that," Creyelman told Sputnik.
TURBULENCE IN FOREIGN POLICY FOR UKRAINE
Before Trump actually asked Zelenskyy for the "favor," he recalled Washington's aid to Kiev and, to illustrate its scale, compared it to how much the European Union was helping.
"I will say that we do a lot for Ukraine. We spend a lot of effort and a lot of time. Much more than the European countries are doing and they should be helping you more than they are. Germany does almost nothing for you. All they do is talk and I think it's something that you should� really ask them about. When I was speaking to Angela Merkel she talks Ukraine, but she doesn't do anything," Trump told Zelenskyy.
Earlier this month, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini said that over the past five years, Ukraine had received from the European Union the largest support package in the latter's history. In 2018, the European Union and Ukraine signed a fourth agreement on macrofinancial aid worth up to $1 billion that would be given in exchange for Kiev implementing a number of reforms, including anti-corruption measures.
"Yes you are absolutely right. Not only 100%, but actually 1000% arid I can tell you the following; I did talk to Angela Merkel and I did meet with her. I also met and talked with Macron and I told them that they are not doing quite as much as they need to be doing on the issues with the sanctions. They are not enforcing the sanctions. They are not working as much as they should work for Ukraine," the Ukrainian president replied to Trump.
According to the European External Action Service, Kiev has received more than $15 billion in grants and loans from Brussels since 2014.
"It turns out that even though logically, the European Union should be our biggest partner but technically the United States is a much bigger partner than the European Union and I'm very grateful to you for that because the United States is doing quite a lot for Ukraine. Much more than the European Union especially when we are talking about sanctions against the Russian Federation," Zelenskyy added.
A week before the call, Trump reportedly ordered that a $400 million aid package for Kiev be delayed, which many now see as an extra measure used to make Zelenskyy dig up political dirt for him. Additionally, when voicing his request for a "favor," Trump mentioned special counsel Robert Mueller's failure to deliver any viable evidence against him in the latter's investigation of Russia's alleged interference in 2016 presidential election.
For many Ukrainians, this call was a rare glimpse into their president's conduct in real political interactions.
Aside from flattery-loaded passages and a confession that Trump was a role model for him in the presidential race, Zelenskky displayed solidarity with Trump's statement that former Ukrainian Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin was "very good and he was shut down and that's really unfair," even though Shokin is largely seen as a corruption cultivator in Ukraine. But on top of that, he readily agreed to make the new prosecutor general, who he said would be "100% my person, my candidate," look into the Biden case.
For Ukraine, which has been using the lion's share of its international aid to fight domestic corruption, this could mean many painful consequences for its relationship with the European Union and other overseas donors. All the more so for the support that Kiev gets toward handling the military conflict in its east.
While there have been no official reactions from Merkel, Macron or the European Union as a whole, and while the footnote on the Zelenskyy-Trump call transcript said the conversation was not recorded verbatim, one thing has become clear: this phone call has set a precedent for top-level communications in that they can now go public at any time.
