REVIEW - EU Fears UK's 'Do Or Die' Brexit Attitude Might Become Dangerous Precedent

BRUSSELS (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 31st August, 2019) In two months the United Kingdom is expected to leave the European Union after multiple delays and a sharp debate on divorce terms, both with Brussels and internally.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been adamant in his determination to take the country out of the bloc by the October 31 deadline, with or without a deal. His "do or die" attitude is largely believed to mean a no-deal despite there being a strong opposition to this scenario in parliament.

Johnson, who succeeded Theresa May just over a month ago, has a knack for formulas and a strong sense of humor. Describing to the press his interactions with Brussels, he quoted the French Norman maxim "honni soit qui mal y pense," which has been the motto of the British Order of the Garter since the 14th century. It translates as "May he be shamed who thinks badly of it" and insinuates the presence of hidden agendas or conflicts of interest.

On Wednesday, Johnson asked Queen Elizabeth II to suspend parliament until October 14, to which she consented. The effect of this will likely be that those lawmakers who seek to stop a no-deal Brexit will not have enough time to do so. Once parliament reconvene, it will have until October 17 for final debates before the European Council meeting that day.

POTENTIAL FOR MAYHEM IN UK, VIOLENCE IN IRELAND

From the very start, Brexit has revolved around three major issues: membership in the customs union and single market, and the border with Ireland.

A customs union is an agreement between countries that allows for goods to move freely among them. It removes tariffs and checks in within-the-union trade and aligns certain regulations in trade affairs with external parties. The current EU customs union comprises all 28 member states, which at this point still includes the United Kingdom. The single market postulates free movement of four elements: people, capital, goods and services.

A no-deal would mean that a "hard border" would become reality again overnight and the four essential trade elements lose the right to move freely.

This scenario could also lead to a hard border with strict checks at the frontier separating Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Since this is the only land border between the United Kingdom and the European Union, this matter has been especially difficult to negotiate.

About as many politicians and business leaders say Brexit will damage the economy as there are leaders saying that the risks are grossly exaggerated. Questions of whether the UK pound and economy will crash, if there will be painful shortages of food or pharmaceuticals, and whether people will see their job opportunities shrink are all in the air. The pro-European press is full of dire warnings about terrible consequences for a no-deal Brexit for the common man.

In terms of the Irish question, the media has gone so far as to suggest that a new civil war between pro-UK Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland might ensue in case a "hard border" is established

Speaking to Sputnik, Theo Francken, a member of the Belgian parliament and former Belgian Minister of Migration and Asylum, said this theory is "grossly exaggerated" and far-fetched.

"I plead in my book 'Continent without borders' for the re-establishment of borders on the periphery of Europe to avoid the destructive illegal migration that the European Union cannot manage to stop. The situation in Ireland is totally different of course, but the fears seem to be grossly exaggerated. It is true that Ireland has a violent history, including recently, but why would sectarian violence explode between Catholics and Protestants? Because there would be controls on trucks and the goods they transport, crossing the border? This sounds far-fetched or at worst it is enticing extremists to be violent!" Francken said.

If Brexit ends up going without a deal, the checks on the Irish border will mainly apply to trucks and will not affect the traffic of ordinary citizens and tourists, he claimed.

"Even if there are queues and problems at the beginning, both countries would work hard to smoothen them out. So, the Eurocrats should stop painting everything British in a negative light and discuss with the Johnson's team in the next 8 following weeks... I think that it is what they are doing now," Francken concluded.

On the island itself, reactions were scattered all across the spectrum. The leader of the unionist Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, Arlene Foster, put the blame for the failed Brexit talks on the European Union, urging all parties to join efforts toward avoiding the no-deal scenario.

"Brussels and Dublin need to dial back the rhetoric around Brexit. We both want to reach a deal, and be a willing partner to find a deal; not just for the United Kingdom but for the Republic of Ireland and the whole of Europe. We must focus on trying to get a deal, instead of focusing only on a no-deal scenario. No-deal is on the table because of the fact that we have a very belligerent EU who instead of focusing on a deal that was good for all of us, wanted to break up the United Kingdom, something of course no British PM should be a part of," she said in an interview with the BBC.

In Dublin, it was the opposite. Michelle O'Neill, chairwoman of the Catholic dominant party Sinn Fein, claimed that "the prospect of a 'hard border' following a no-deal Brexit would have devastating effects for the island of Ireland."

"The consequences of a no-deal Brexit will result in a hard border which threatens our hard won peace and undermines the political and economic progress of the past 21 years, enjoyed across the whole island. The British government is dealing with the north of Ireland and the peace process as though it's a commodity and it is a reckless, dangerous approach to take and one which must be opposed," she said.

As wide as the range of standpoints is, Simon Coveney, the deputy prime minister of Ireland, said his country "has always been clear [that] a hard border must be avoided."

EUROPE FEARS BREXIT MIGHT BECOME DANGEROUS PRECEDENT

In the meantime, the European Union is no less polarized than the United Kingdom.

The pro-Europeanists are, of course, claiming that Brexit should be postponed or a second referendum be organized in the United Kingdom.

"There is now little hope for a last-minute solution. The British do not say what they want, only what they do not want. Even if an agreement can still be found, the German Federal government must be ready for a hard Brexit," German Liberal Party (FDP) spokesman Alexander Graf Lambsdorff said on national television.

For most populist opposition parties, however, support for Brexit and Boris Johnson's way of handling it is clearly evident.

"Each nation must solve their own problems. That's what Boris Johnson is committed to in the full respect of British law. A dry exit of the United Kingdom on October 31st is obviously not ideal and I hope that a technical agreement can be negotiated before then. They are talking and Boris Johnson is simply applying the decision taken earlier at the referendum," Nicolas Dupont Aignan, president of Debout la France! (DLF) and former French presidential candidate, told Sputnik.

The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a referendum in 2016. Since then, the withdrawal has been delayed several times due to UK parliament's repeated refusal to accept the deal terms proposed by Theresa May.

French member of the European parliament Gilles Lebreton was convinced that the UK and French customs administrations were perfectly prepared to handle a no-deal Brexit and that the bloc feared a smooth divorce might serve as a precedent for other members to consider seceding.

"To want a 'normal' border between the two Irish entities is a perfectly defensible idea from the point of view of British sovereignty. But it will create tension, that is true. However, I trust both parties to quickly find an acceptable modus vivendi [way of life]. We will realize that Brexit, even without a deal, is not the end of the world: it is this prospect that terrorises the EU! The are afraid that if it is a success, it will give ideas to other member states," he told Sputnik.

His sentiment was echoed by Belgian lawmaker Filip Dewinter, who was convinced that Brexit was "a good thing" that was unlikely to bring about any major economic shocks in either the United Kingdom or Europe.

"There will be some temporary queuing probably in Belgian or French ports for trucks and for tourists, but this is not fundamental and will be quickly absorbed. Each country prepares itself, and the European Commission or [European Council President] Donald Tusk must stop crying that it will be mayhem! Of course, the European elites and Eurocrats are afraid of the British example if, as I expect, it will be a great economic success. It would give ideas to other member states, where nationalist, sovereigntist parties like us, are on the rise. There could be other departures from the EU, especially if [incoming president of the European Commission] Ursula von der Leyen has her way in matter of wild immigration. The rebellion of the peoples of Europe will grow," Dewinter told Sputnik.

In the coming weeks, there will emerge a window of opportunity for the European Union to conclude a mutually acceptable deal with the United Kingdom, Alexander Gauland, a lawmaker from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party said, adding that the bloc's failure to do so will be a clear indicator that it fears other states might follow London's lead.

"If the responsible EU leaders block the British aspirations in the coming weeks, one will have to conclude that Brussels deliberately tries to deter other states from leaving the EU," Gauland told Sputnik.

BORIS KEEPS CALM AND CARRIES ON

Despite loud declarations that "there is nothing to discuss" and that "the deal negotiated with Theresa May is good and will not be re-discussed," Brussels had no choice but to finally become more realistic. The United Kingdom cannot accept loosing its sovereignty over Northern Ireland, as would evidently happen under the "backstop solution" negotiated by Theresa May, Johnson told German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron before the G7 summit in Biarritz.

The so-called backstop option in May's plan provided London with a transitional period after Brexit during which many existing EU-UK arrangements would remain in place to avoid sharp disruptions and allow additional time to try to negotiate a free trade deal with Brussels. If no new agreement is reached within this period, the United Kingdom would remain a single customs territory, inside of which Northern Ireland would enjoy closer integration with the European Union.

In a seemingly ultimatum-like deadlocked situation, Johnson kept his calm and displayed a positive outlook on potentially finding a compromise.

"While I have been encouraged with my discussions with EU leaders over recent weeks that there is a willingness to talk about alternatives to the anti-democratic backstop, it is now time for both sides to step up the tempo," Johnson said.

He was presumably referring to a recent statement released by the EU press service that said that Brussels keeps its "doors remain open and we have demonstrated our willingness to work 24/7 throughout this long process."

So both sides seem to be in business despite the outcry of opposition on both shores of the English Channel, and threats of lawsuits coming from London and Edinburgh.

"Boris Johnson has the right to suspend Parliament: UK law provides for it. We must respect his decision and stop shouting at the coup! It is not a coup d'Etat. The UK and French customs administrations are preparing to handle a tough Brexit. They will be able to do it without major problems; there will be no chaos." French lawmaker Gilles Lebreton said.

His colleague from Belgium, Filip Dewinter, agreed and added that Johnson's strategy demonstrated the incompetence of his predecessor Theresa May.

"Boris Johnson was right to shut down parliament for two weeks. We have seen how incompetent Theresa May had been. Britain needs a clear application of the referendum decision," he told Sputnik.

It is now up to Brussels to negotiate with Johnson wisely and allow both parties to keep face, AfD lawmaker Gauland said.

"Brussels must accept to talk with Boris Johnson's team and at least renegotiate the Northern Ireland regulations to allow Britain to leave the country in an orderly and dignified manner. It seems it is finally happening. It was not an acceptable attitude from Brussels to reject new negotiations with London in principle. Nobody can be interested in the Brexit being chaotic and the British leaving the EU in disarray. Britain is too important for Europe. Brussels must finally accept that the majority of the British have voted in favour of leaving the EU in a referendum," Gauland told Sputnik.

It appears that lawmakers agree on that Brussels should put all available efforts into negotiating a mutually beneficial deal with Johnson. After all, the bloc might end up better off under Johnson's plan.

"On our side, Europe must move towards a positive reconstruction. It is necessary to negotiate a turn of the EU because the current technocratic and financial Europe does not work. If we do not, the headless duck will continue to run, with Merkel and Macron. We need to build a Europe of cooperation," Dupont Aignan said.

In conclusion, one must take the time to admire the reactions coming from the entertainment industry, where artists, actors, singers and others generously express their views on politics.

One of the more stunning statements was made by Hugh Grant, the darling actor of British comedy, who quintessentially expressed the opinions of many about Johnson's decision to prorogue the parliament.

"You will not f*** with my children's future. You will not destroy the freedoms my grandfather fought two world wars to defend. F*** off you over-promoted rubber bath toy. Britain is revolted by you and you little gang of masturbatory prefects," he proclaimed on Twitter, directing his candor at the incumbent prime minister.

Whether Grant's words will have an effect on Johnson's policies remains to be seen, but what is certain is that the future of Brexit and its potential repercussions for the United Kingdom and the European Union remains blurred.