MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 20th August, 2019) The unprecedented outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in China a year ago supports the rise of global pork prices, but the impact on the Russian market will not be noticeable in the nearest future, Yuri Kovalev, head of Russia's National Union of Swine Breeders (NSS), told Sputnik.
"The ASF outbreak in China a year ago is a truly unprecedented event. China and Southeast Asia ensure 60 percent of global pork production and consumption, and therefore have an impact on the entire meat market. ... This situation has not yet affected Russia, mainly because import is small, and we have not reached large export volumes," Kovalev said, adding.
Given the density of pigs in China, the dominance of smallholder farms and wide spread of the virus in all Chinese provinces, eradication of ASF in the near future is unlikely, he added. The NSS's basic scenario for 2019 implies a year-on-year fall in pork production in China by 25-35 percent, and the number of pigs by 30-40 percent.
"China will continue to import a huge amount of pork. Now, this volume is about 2 million tonnes, and in the coming years, it will probably increase to 3.5-4 million tonnes, affecting the entire global market," Kovalev said.
The countries of Southeast Asia, which are the largest consumers of pork, are still closed for Russian exports, he noted.
"In particular, China does not want to buy from us, fearing the ASF. But because of the prevalence, this disease is present in at least 10 EU countries, as well as in all countries of Southeast Asia. It is impossible to completely block the country, regionalization is needed. We are moving forward, even though slowly," Kovalev said, calling the situation with the opening of the Chinese market one of the main challenges for Russian pork farming.
According to NSS data, Russian pork exports amounted to 84,000 tonnes, and imports were at 86,000 tonnes last year. Russia's total pork production was 3.71 million tonnes in 2018.
