MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 06th July, 2019) Greece's opposition New Democracy (ND) party, which is widely projected to overtake the ruling Syriza in the upcoming parliamentary elections, will likely row back on its previous rhetoric, once it comes to power, and keep the name change deal with neighboring North Macedonia in place, experts told Sputnik.
With the key Sunday vote around the corner, most of political analysts are unanimous that the snap vote is likely to repeat the outcomes of recent elections to the European Parliament and local legislatures that resulted in Syriza's defeat.
Meanwhile, it was the name change deal with the northern neighbor that has become a part of the incumbent government's legacy and at the same time a huge factor that has seriously divided Greek politics.
Signed in June 2018, the agreement formally settled Skopje's decades-long dispute with Athens, which vetoed all of the attempts by the former Yugoslav republic to join both the European Union and NATO over fears that any mention of "Macedonia" in the neighbor's name opened way for a territorial claim to the Greek largest and second most populous region, which is also called Macedonia.
The main opposition party, ND, was a vocal critic of the agreement, urging the parliament to reject its ratification over irredentism concerns.
'RHETORICAL OPPOSITION' TO THE DEAL?
Ioannis-Sotirios Ioannou, a co-founder of the Geopolitical Cyprus analytical website, however, believes that the ND will downplay its criticism of the Syriza-championed deal and finally embrace it once it comes to power.
"Although [ND President] Mr. [Kyriakos] Mitsotakis, as the leader of the opposition, was opposed to the Prespa Agreement trying to achieve, also, a political opening to the radical and populist Greek Right, he will not challenge it, and silently, he will accept it as it is. So under New Democracy, relations with North Macedonia will be further developed," Ioannou told Sputnik.
His colleague from Macropolis.gr analytical website, Alexandra Voudouri, agrees that "it is clear that the new government will respect the Prespa Agreement," pointing to the relevant changes in the party's rhetoric over the last couple of months.
"I tend to believe that if ND has a clear majority they will follow a rather positive approach when it comes to the enhancement of bilateral ties with North Macedonia and in specific fields such as trade, economy and cross border cooperation. Such an approach, however, has a very strict precondition: The full implementation of the Prespes Agreement on behalf of the other side. The implementation of the Agreement will define ND's stance on North Macedonia's European perspectives," Voudouri told Sputnik.
Moreover, the ND party has warned that Athens also retains the ability to express objections and veto progress in accessions talks with Skopje, she added.
Another factor why the party is unlikely to challenge the hard-won agreement, according to the expert, is its concerns that Turkey may seek to take advantage of the Athens-Skopje continued strife.
"The official line of the party rejects any possibility of the Prespes Agreement being scrapped. Their explanation is that in such a case, the Greek side would have given every right to Turkey to continue its revisionary tactics and rhetoric regarding the [1923] Lausanne Treaty [that defined the borders of the modern Turkish Republic after the Ottoman Empire collapse]," Voudouri said.
Dimitris Tsarouhas, a professor at the Bilkent University and Greek Politics Specialist Group of the British Political Studies Association, similarly believes that the ND will abide by the agreement, despite previous "rhetorical opposition."
Speaking about foreign policy on the whole, he ruled out any major changes, adding that the pro-European ND would, however, ease certain strain in relations with Brussels.
"Relations with the US will get a boost. Relations with the EU will become less confrontational and the politics of austerity will also hardly be affected. Relations with Turkey will continue to be difficult but formal and informal channels of communication between the two sides will be maintained," Tsarouhas told Sputnik.
Ioannou of the Geopolitical Cyprus website agreed that the boost that Greek-US relations experienced would continue, as well as a "solid pro-EU, pro-western foreign policy" pursued by the Syriza.
POSSIBLE SHIFTS IN ECONOMIC, SOCIAL POLICY
While foreign policy shifts are unlikely after the power change, all eyes are set on the future economic approaches that Greece, which was seeking to ease the EU-imposed austerity during the Tsipras tenure, will pursue under the potential liberal conservative government.
"Mitsotakis will try to endorse some modernizing trends in the economy and the public sector. But he will be fully adapted to the implementation of policies that are related to the ECM [European Stability Mechanism] and the relevant obligations to the creditors. His main focus will be unemployment," Ioannou suggested.
The ND government is also likely to cut taxes and take steps to revive the investment sector.
"Greece will have a more investment friendly environment under a ND government. This is ND's main priority claiming that 'more investments will bring more job placements.' This explains to a great extent the reaction of the markets following the results of the European elections here. A government led by Mitsotakis will also give priority to tax cuts and reforms to help the Greek economy grow," Voudouri of Macropolis.gr analytical service said.
Agreeing that the new government will try to enhance domestic investment and make the country an attractive destination for foreign direct investment, Professor Tsarouhas of Bilkent University, however, noted that "it is unclear whether New Democracy will succeed, given the straight jacket that all Greek governments are obliged to wear as part of post-program economic surveillance."
"In social policy, some of Syriza's welfare measures will be curtailed and public spending will become more targeted, essentially limited to the police, health and education. In the public sector, new evaluation methods will be implemented and the private sector will be invited to take part in running public services through public private partnerships. Privatizations will continue. The new government will also follow a tougher law and order agenda, including tougher sentences for the convicted," he added.
According to Panagiota Manoli of the University of Peloponnese, the results of the recent European and regional elections in Greece are likely to "be repeated" in Sunday's vote.
"The ruling SYRIZA left-wing coalition part is expected to suffer a heavy defeat by nearly 9 percent by the center-right New Democracy party," Manoli told Sputnik.
According to the expert, Syriza "has disappointed its voters both on issues of domestic economic policies and on foreign policy issues" and it will take time for it to consolidate itself, especially if the Tsipras leadership is questioned.
Tsarouhas of the Bilkent University, in turn, expressed belief that "Tsipras is the undisputed leader and will remain as party head if he wishes to "even after the likely electoral defeat, adding, however, that "a lot will depend on the scale of the loss."
The expert suggested that, after the expected defeat, the party would need to enhance its "organizational base and make it more visible at local and regional level, where its reach remains limited."
Ioannou meanwhile believes that, if the ND predictably gets majority, Syriza will face a challenge of "either being part of a stable opposition or a party in a serious dissolution process." The first scenario is the most dominant, according to the expert.
Voudouri of the Macropolis.gr website, in turn, projects that Syriza will use its electoral loss to consolidate itself as the country's main center-left party.
"I assume that SYRIZA as the main opposition party in Greece will try what it knows best; that is, to strongly criticize and attack the government's policies in economy, social security etc," the expert pointed out.
She however noted that there was still a factor that could shatter the ND's hopes to obtain a clear majority in the upcoming elections, and it is, according to Voudouri, low turnout.
