LONDON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 23rd May, 2019) The newly minted Brexit Party (BP) appears poised for success at the upcoming European Parliament elections with more than a third of the potential voters ready to back it, while the ruling Conservative Party enjoys relatively little support in comparison.
In the latest YouGov poll, BP stood at 37 percent of the potential vote, with the Liberal Democrats lagging behind at 19 percent and Labour Party at 13 percent. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party had 7 percent of the potential vote and Farage's former movement, the UK Independent Party (UKIP) was at 3 percent.
Given that the United Kingdom is currently attempting to agree the conditions of its departure from the European Union, it may seem unusual that it should vote at all. Under the original Brexit schedule, the United Kingdom was not supposed to go to polls. It was expected to leave the bloc on March 29.
However, the UK parliament rejected the withdrawal agreement, and the European Union gave the United Kingdom a new deadline until October 31. It may leave earlier if the Parliament passes the withdrawal deal and political declaration on the future relationship. Nevertheless, the European Union insisted that the United Kingdom should hold the European Parliament elections.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May said Wednesday that the United Kingdom could leave by the end of July if the UK parliament passed the deal before the summer recess. Depending on how successful her latest attempt to secure a deal is, the newly elected UK members of the European Parliament may hold their seats for only a few weeks or months.
The United Kingdom can fill 73 out of 751 seats in the European parliament. After it leaves, some of the seats will be scrapped altogether, but 27 will be spread out among other EU members. Spain and France will have additional five seats each, and a number of other countries will get fewer seats.
The situation is confusing to at least some of the voters. Ben, a teacher from Hampshire, told Sputnik he did not think there should be a European election.
"I think it's a total waste of time. I'm a Remainer but as we're going to leave what's the point in these elections? All it's going to do is fragment the country more as people are just going to vote for Nigel Farage ... I'll vote, but that's only because that's the tiniest bit of control I have over the politics in this country, so I'll use it, but I don't see what good this is going to do," Ben said.
James, an IT technician from Peterborough, argued it was "appalling" that elections were even being held, describing the EU as a "neo-liberal" entity that "Lexiteers" � a slang term to describe left-wing Eurosceptics � were eager to escape.
"Millions of people voted decisively to leave the European Union in 2016. We need a general election instead to get Labour in and the Tories out. We want Labour to stand by the people's vote to leave the EU without any ifs or buts. Leave," James told Sputnik.
The Brexit Party was co-founded by longtime Eurosceptic personality Nigel Farage in late 2018, just as the UK government was attempting to work out a withdrawal agreement that the UK parliament might accept.
Similarly to UKIP at the time of Brexit referendum, BP is focusing on a single issue, the one obvious from the name of the party. It has welcomed some former members of UKIP as well.
The personality of Farage may be a draw, according to David Hearne, a researcher at Birmingham City University's Centre for Brexit Studies.
"Farage is a significant face and is popular within that part of the voting public. Another element is the fact that UKIP have experienced a tumultuous time over recent years, with a revolving-door leadership and substantial numbers of MEPs defecting. Accusations of racism and the fact that the party is seen to be actively courting the far-right are also taking their toll," Hearne told Sputnik.
However, Simon Usherwood, the deputy director of a think tank, the UK in a Changing Europe, believes that the BP's popularity may also be explained by the voters' desire to give the main parties "a good kicking."
"Brexit is the nominal focus, but it's actually about giving those Westminster types a good kicking. The big uncertainty is whether that visceral power can translate out of the European elections � which most voters see as low-stakes � into a general election, where being angry isn't necessarily enough," Usherwood told Sputnik.
UKIP has not given up on the campaigning, however. Party leader Gerard Batten has been touring former or current UKIP strongholds in a bid to re-energise the voters that originally catapulted the party to prominence in EU elections back in 2014 with some 27 percent of the vote.
Speaking to Sputnik from his campaign bus, he admitted that both the BP and voter disillusionment were an issue.
"The problem with the campaign of course is now we've got the Brexit party. It's, in my opinion, basically another Tory party. It's Tory lite. If you look at their donors and their candidates they're all either rich Tories, ex-Tory MPs, or has-been Tories with a revolutionary Marxist thrown in for diversity," Batten argued.
The UKIP leader claimed that many people he had encountered were disillusioned with the entire situation and unlikely to vote, potentially leaving the door open for pro-EU parties.
"There is a serious danger the Remain vote will do very well and the Leave vote won't do as well as a lot of Leave voters no longer believe in the democratic system. And who can blame them? If the result of the referendum is overturned then the democratic system is dead," Batten stressed.
CONSERVATIVE, LABOUR STRUGGLING WITH BREXIT
Shahrar Ali, the Home Affairs spokesperson for the Green Party and a London candidate for EU election, believes that the Conservative Party are "in one of the worst situations they've ever found themselves in."
"It must be excruciating for those very few Conservatives who actually believe in Europe, but even for those who don't this stagnation in politics is unprecedented," Ali told Sputnik.
The same YouGov poll put the Green party at 12 percent of the potential vote.
"We've been doing fantastically well so it is a promising time for us. It's certainly the case that the local elections were affected by people's general disillusionment and a failure of outcome on Brexit so far. That's clearly going to be a pressing concern for voters when it comes to voting for [members of the European Parliament] MEPs," Ali said.
The candidate added that his party would "be campaigning strongly to remain in the European Union."
"You can speculate about what the national poll will be on that. But my feeling is that even if you took the last two years worth of new, young voters, who I think are more internationalist in outlook, even with the shambles we've experienced over the past three years, Remain would have a good chance of winning with those new voters," Ali added.
Ali believes that Labour's chances may have been hurt by their recent Brexit talks with the government. The negotiations ended without a compromise, but May went on to propose a new deal.
Usherwood argued that the Labour-Conservative talks seemed more like "an effort to demonstrate that everyone has tried their best to save the situation, rather than any genuine attempt to find a compromise."
"As such, we will find the United Kingdom pushed back to the situation we've been in since November; trying to decide between leaving with May's deal, leaving with no deal and no leaving at all. Maybe another round of indicative voting might produce something with a majority in the Commons, but the omens aren't good, plus any such vote doesn't necessarily open to door to approval of the Withdrawal Agreement," Usherwood told Sputnik.
He lamented the fact that, once again, the UK lawmakers appeared clearer on what they did not want from Brexit than what they wanted.
