RPT: PREVIEW - Spain To Hold 3rd General Elections In 4 Years More Divided Than Ever

BRUSSELS (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 28th April, 2019) Spain is approaching the third general elections in four years, which are slated for Sunday, more divided than ever.

Many recent events will influence the vote. There has been the huge economic crisis of 2008, much worse than anywhere else in Europe, since the Spanish boom had been based on the construction sector. The events eventually led to the appearance of the Podemos party and the Citizens party, left and right.

There has been the corruption scandal that "killed" former Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's government and created the downfall of his party, the Christian democratic People's Party (PP).

There has been the very long Catalan crisis, with the declaration of Catalan independence by the Barcelona government of Carles Puigdemont, then his escape to Belgium and the trial of members of his government in Madrid.

There has been the surprise success of the far-right Vox party in regional elections of Andalusia, the most populous region of Spain. Vox has been the kingmaker, making it possible for the PP and liberals from the Citizens to eject the socialists for the first time in decades.

There has been the return of the socialists with the minority government of Pedro Sanchez of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE). But he could not satisfy the Catalan separatists, supporting him from outside, and his government fell on the budget vote. Sanchez is now in a caretaker role.

This a rocky period in Spanish politics, with many angry demonstrations in Madrid and Barcelona, from the left as well as from the right, ahead of the general election of Sunday April 28th, while the show trial of the 8 prominent Catalan separatists continues in Madrid until September.

Nobody will very probably win a majority of the votes and of seats in parliament, making it very difficult for left or right to form a government without support from others. Hence, it is expected that there will be a coalition government.

The polls show the winners in votes and seats to be the socialists of Pedro Sanchez, benefiting from the economy recovering over the last months. The PSOE will probably become the first with 29 percent of the vote.

The PP will come next, recovering slightly after Rajoy's demise, with 20 percent.

The third party would be - still following several polls - the Citizens, the support for which has gone up with a peak in April last year, but has declined since then to 15 percent.

Unidos Podemos, the left-wing alliance, would probably muster 13 percent.

But snapping at the heels of the anti-austerity Podemos, the leftwing coalition is Vox. Having never won a seat in congress, the party is on course to take about 10 percent of the vote, following the polls, but some observers see it much higher, if only because many people prefer not to mention that they vote for the anti-immigration party.

Then of course, there is the small Basque party, and the Catalan parties who are in favor of independence.

So there appears to be no clear winner; coalitions are needed on the right as well as on the left, and even so, they would bring the coalition to between 44 percent and 48 percent of the vote, a little short for a majority in the parliament.

ISSUES WHERE EVERY PARTY HAS OWN OPINION

The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) poll, the most followed in Spain, identifies the country's biggest problems as unemployment (61.8 percent of the respondents); corruption and fraud is a strong second place, amid the graft probe around the PP (33.3 percent). Other problems identified by the citizens are numerous and linked to political life or regional issues (29.1 percent).

The three right-wing parties talk a lot about immigration since the autumn of 2018, when Italy closed the Central Mediterranean route for illegal migrants, and they now come to Spain via Morocco in speedboats, to the beaches of southern Spain. Following the same poll, the issue is only a main worry for 8.9 percent of those surveyed.

The issue of Catalan independence, which appears to trouble 11 percent of the Spaniards, is still one of the dominant political themes of the past years and will keep a strong role in the election, maybe because the trials in Madrid show the separatists in front of their judges every day on television.

In Catalonia, the most recent regional elections showed that the separatist parties retain their very small majority. It means a strong minority of Catalans disagree with independence. It is a problem within a problem.

So, the PSOE will probably come first on Sunday night and will try to form a government with a majority composed of several parties. If Sanchez fails, it will be the turn of Pablo Casado, the new leader of the PP to try to unite the Citizens and Vox in a different project.

A big unknown is the real score that Vox will do.

There is the only certain thing: if a new government is not formed, another general election will be held.