RPT - ANALYSIS: Military Coup In Sudan Triggered By Lack Of Reforms, Influence Of Global Actors

BRUSSELS/NEW DELHI (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 12th April, 2019) The military coup in Sudan has been driven by the need for democratic reforms that were long overdue as well as the influence of global actors seeking to gain benefits from crisis in the African country, experts told Sputnik.

Earlier in the day, Sudanese Defense Minister Awad Mohamed Ahmed Ibn Auf announced the establishment of a military council that would govern the country for two years. The minister added that long-standing President Omar Bashir had been ousted and detained, adding that a three-month-long state of emergency was imposed in the country.

TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE results OF MILITARY COUP

The consequences of the recent military coup in Sudan remain unclear as Bashir enjoys backing of many supporters both inside the country and abroad, according to Sanjeev Kumar from the Indian Centre for Policy Research.

"It is obvious that the crucial factors in this situation were, on the one hand, the long overdue need for democratic reforms, and on the other, the intervention of a number of international actors who in recent years have been trying to capitalize on conflicts in the countries of the middle East and North Africa," Kumar said.

Sudan now needs to promptly hold democratic and transparent elections supported by the international community in order to stabilize situation, according to the expert.

"It is possible that we will witness a confrontation, perhaps even a lengthy one. The situation will worsen even more if the military cannot agree among themselves about who would lead the republic during the transitional period," Kumar underlined.

At the same time, Pierre Henrot, a Belgian military and geopolitical expert, has expressed skepticism that Sudan could smoothly transition to democracy even after the sacking of Bashir.

"Nobody will regret the end of that bloody dictator. The problem is: who will replace him? None of these Islamic republics are mature enough to have any form of stable regime. It can be feared that Sudan will remain in the darkest of ages for a long time ... There is no Islamic democracy in the region. It seems islam and democracy are like fire and water, impossible to reconcile," Henrot, who is also a former UN-peace observer, said.

Michel Liegeois, the professor of political sciences at the University of Louvain in Belgium, expressed similar sentiment on the Sudanese crisis.

"I have worked in Sudan, in the peace mission to Darfur some years ago. To me, the violent end of the Bashir regime was inevitable. When? That was the only question. These sorts of regimes cannot organize transitions ... If the regime had the power to solve the issues after six days of demonstrations in the streets of Khartoum, it would have done it," Liegeois underlined.

US SUPPORTED BASHIR IN EXCHANGE FOR FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM

Washington has been turning a blind eye on the "dictatorship" of President Bashir in return for Khartoum fighting with many terrorists groups, present on its territory, including al-Qaeda, which is banned in Russia and the United States.

"At first sight, the disappearance of Bashir could be perceived as a good thing for the West, since his regime has been the sponsor of terrorism from very early on ... But it is not that simple: the Americans have actively worked with the Sudanese, in a crude exchange: you expel the terrorists out of Sudan and in exchange, the United States supports the Khartoum government to a certain point," Henrot said.

Veronique De Keyser, the former head of the EU mission to Sudan for the 2010 presidential election and former member of the UN Human Rights Council in Sudan, where she has served alongside former US President Jimmy Carter, also said that Washington and Khartoum had maintained a special kind of relationship.

"It is true that during all these years, there was a certain 'modus vivendi' between Bashir and the Americans. I had talked with Jimmy Carter about that. Bashir had expelled the terrorist groups and the Americans did not put too much pressure on him, though of course the United States and all Western governments disapproved of the dictatorship. Let's hope the situation settles down and the events evolve peacefully," De Keyser underlined.

At the same time, Bashir's power has started to decline with the loss of oil revenues from reserves in South Sudan, which gained independence in 2011, the experts noted.

"Do not forget also that Bashir has gradually lost his prestige, after the loss of the South and the oil, the North of Sudan was terrified by the loss it represented and wondered how the government would be able to continue. We see now that it has come to an end. I am very glad that the army seems to have managed to end the regime without too much violence," De Keyser added.

Rallies in Sudan were initially triggered by the rise in price for bread and other consumer goods that greatly increased the vulnerability of Sudanese citizens. Protesters, dissatisfied with tough economic situation, later started to call for resignation of Bashir, who has been in power since 1989.