MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 07th February, 2019) French President Emmanuel Macron's reported idea of calling a national referendum on the same day as the European Parliament elections may be an attempt to deflect public attention from the elections, where his party is expected to get relatively poor results, experts told Sputnik.
On Sunday, the Journal du Dimanche newspaper reported, citing sources, that Macron was mulling over the idea to hold a referendum on May 26 in a bid to calm down the yellow vest protest movement. During the referendum, the French will be supposedly asked whether they want fewer members of parliament and whether their terms should be reduced.
BID TO 'BLUR MESSAGE OF EU ELECTIONS'
According to Alain Policar, a researcher at the Paris Institute of Political Studies' Center for Political Research, the French leadership may thereby be seeking to shift attention from the European elections to the referendum, which it aims to use as a vote of confidence in the government.
"A lot of people in his own camp advise him against [referendum] as it would blur the message of the European election. But they at the same time hope that eventually bad results [of ruling La Republique En Marche party] at the European election could be compensated by a good result at the referendum," Policar told Sputnik.
The expert clarified that the upcoming European elections in France might see a boost in support for the right-wing National Rally and yellow vest candidates, coupled with the traditionally low turnout � including among Macron's electorate � and Europeans' frequent use of this vote to voice dissatisfaction with certain policies.
"We can expect that the vote of disapproval will reflect in the EP elections through the vote for the Rassemblement National [National Rally] in particular, and, of course, a vote for the list of the yellow vests. All that can mobilize the most radicalized voters," he said.
In the referendum, Macron, by contrast, expects to have a popular vote in his favor in order to get somewhat "guarantee" that his policies rely on people's support, he clarified.
"So he does it to burnish his image. The concerns are that by organizing the referendum the same day that the European election is taking a risk that already unpopular EP election will be even less popular and that only the questions asked at the referendum will have importance. So pro-European voters, who are numerous among Macron supporters, believe the EP elections will be moved at the background," Policar suggested.
DOWNPLAYING YELLOW VESTS BY RECOGNIZING POPULAR ANGER
Another calculation behind the referendum, according to the expert, is to seize the initiative from the yellow vests and show that the government does heed people's outcry.
According to Policar, yellow vest protests � which have been raging in France since mid-November and have morphed from rallies against fuel tax hikes into wider outcry against Macron's economic policies � are currently risking to fade, mainly due to the violence they were accompanied with and the lack of unity within the movement itself.
"Macron, whose popularity remains low with only a slight increase, is trying to discredit the movement by sort of recognizing people's anger, take account of it through referendum ... I think that his goal is to reaffirm his own legitimacy," he said.
Dr. Paul Smith, an associate professor in French and Francophone Studies at the University of Nottingham, meanwhile, noted that the referendum might be nothing but Macron's attempt to get direct mandate from people for his constitutional reform stalled in parliament.
Since taking office, Macron indeed has been seeking to promote a constitutional reform, which stipulates a number of changes such as a 30-percent reduction of the number of members of both parliamentary chambers, the limit on the number of re-elections, and a partial proportional representation in parliamentary election.
"On the one hand, the gilets jaunes [yellow vests] are calling for fewer members of parliament. Macron made that one of his election promises too, but he put it into a raft of constitutional reforms that he cannot get through parliament as he would need a three-fifth majority under Article 89. But under Article 11 of the constitution, he can ask the people a question directly and this is what he would use," Smith told Sputnik.
Dwelling on the issue, the expert criticized the constitutional reform, and wondered: "how does reducing the number of members of parliament and the number of terms a freely elected representative can serve actually promote democracy?"
TRICKY REFERENDUM: 'WHAT IF HE LOST'?
Smith went on to note that a referendum might ultimately turn out to be a very tricky issue, and wondered what Macron would do if he lost.
"And what if he lost the referendum? No-one would be fooled by the argument that it wasn't about him. He couldn't just shrug it off, as [Jacques] Chirac did over the European constitution in 2005, sack the PM and replace him with someone else. Is Macron ready to resign if he doesn't get the result he needs?" he said.
The expert also described the referendum as an "extremely risky idea" due to the possibility of low turnout.
"Now, you might think that is cunning, because it is a question that everyone expects and answer 'yes' to. But what if the turnout for that is poor? What if people turn out to vote for the European elections but spoil their referendum votes or just refuse to participate in the referendum. Imagine a big gap between the two in terms of votes registered and what that would look like," he said.
In general, the expert expressed doubt that a referendum on reducing the number of members of parliament would be a good response to yellow vests' real complaints.
