US Meddling In Venezuelan Crisis May Bolster Maduro, Discredit Opposition

 US Meddling in Venezuelan Crisis May Bolster Maduro, Discredit Opposition

US open interference in Venezuela's domestic affairs may ultimately end up boosting President Nicolas Maduro's positions and discredit the Washington-backed opposition, experts told Sputnik

WASHINGTON/MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 06th February, 2019) US open interference in Venezuela's domestic affairs may ultimately end up boosting President Nicolas Maduro's positions and discredit the Washington-backed opposition, experts told Sputnik.

Tensions in the Latin American nation escalated two weeks ago when speaker of the opposition-controlled National Assembly Juan Guaido declared himself interim president, disputing last year's re-election of Maduro. The opposition leader was almost immediately recognized by the United States and its allies. Russia, China, Mexico, Turkey and Uruguay, among other nations have voiced support for Maduro, who, in turn, has accused Washington of orchestrating a coup.

The unprecedented speed at which the United States recognized the self-proclaimed president came as no surprise, given its previous rhetoric concerning Venezuela, and President Donald Trump's August 2017 warning about a "military option" on the table with regard to the crisis in the Latin American nation.

As soon as Guaido proclaimed himself interim president, reports emerged that US Vice President Mike Pence actually pledged him support in a phone call the night before.

Suspicions of direct interference spiked further when days later the United States announced that it was seizing billions of Dollars in Venezuela's oil assets. All these moves have been also accompanied by threats of a possible military option and "consequences" if Guaido is somehow harmed.

The history of US-Venezuelan relations however proves that attempts to interfere in the Latin American nation may backfire on Washington itself, which was the case in the times of President Hugo Chavez. Masterly using the long record of US meddling in Central and Latin America, the latter accused Washington of being behind the 2002 coup and continued capitalizing on the rhetoric in the years to come.

Meanwhile, declassified US documents later showed that Washington did not support the coup despite being aware of preparations for it.

NO BETTER WAY TO DISCREDIT OPPOSITION, BOLSTER MADURO?

Some experts believe that the open push for regime change in Venezuela by Washington will similarly make Maduro stronger.

"I think there is a substantial chance this will strengthen the Maduro government in the long run. We are seeing evidence of pro-government demonstrations and support from the majority," Canadian author and analyst Keith Bolender told Sputnik.

Even those who used to oppose Maduro took to the streets to protest a possible foreign intervention after the US role in the political turmoil and attempts to capitalize on the crisis became more and more evident, the expert noted.

"As more information comes out as to just how much Guaido has been in communication with the Americans before the crisis, more citizens are understanding how the United States has manipulated the whole affair," Bolender said.

US author and political commentator Daniel Lazare similarly expressed belief that US regime change efforts and statements had actually played into Maduro's hands. According to Lazare, one could hardly inflict more damage on the opposition's reputation than the United States itself.

As an example, the expert referred to a comment by US National Security Adviser John Bolton suggesting that the United States would benefit economically if its energy companies invested in and developed oil capabilities in Venezuela.

"The comment was astonishing � and astonishingly stupid. What better way is there to discredit Guaido than to paint him as a puppet handing over his own country's resources to a hostile foreign power?" Lazare said.

The expert suggested that the Venezuelan people would finally likely forgive Maduro for faulty policies, with the whole situation resulting in a strong nationalist backlash against any foreign interference.

"Maduro is incompetent and corrupt, but I think that thousands of Venezuelans will rally to his side as a consequence," Lazare opined.

NATURAL RESPONSE IN DEFENSE OF SOVEREIGNTY

Bolender found it remarkable to see the United States and its allies so blatantly call for a coup and support Guaido, who had no legitimate claim to power.

"Of course it is the continuation of the long historical interference in Latin America by US imperialist forces, but this one is particularly distressing as it has the support of countries like Canada who are backing the illegitimate US effort at regime change," Bolender went on.

Across Venezuela, there has already been seen a natural backslash against external attempts to undermine the national sovereignty, including through painful economic sanctions, the expert noted.

"The key of course is the military, if they maintain support for Maduro then the coup attempt should fail. Otherwise the country may be facing a civil war, which would be to the advantage of the American side. It is an extraordinarily dangerous time in Venezuela," he said.

According to Bolender, Maduro seems to be reacting in the most appropriate way possible to find a peaceful solution, understanding that any move to jail Guaido, no matter that he may see it as justified, would be playing into US hands to increase pressure in favor of the coup.

"The next few weeks will be critical, and one hopes that the forces for regime change will be overcome and that the Venezuelan people will be allowed to resolve their own problems," he predicted.

'ONLY REASONABLE' OFFERS TO SETTLE CRISIS COME FROM CARACAS

Tiberio Graziani, the chairman of Vision & Global Trends, International Institute for Global Analyses, similarly noted that "the only reasonable words" and openness for talks have so far come only from Maduro.

"Guaido, backed by Trump, tries to provoke a direct confrontation with President Maduro, at the cost of a civil war. The only reasonable words and opening are in fact arrived only from Maduro. If the situation degenerates, Guaido will need his US ally," Graziani told Sputnik.

Under such circumstances, popular support for Maduro will play a crucial role, but will depend on his ability to keep the crisis within the political framework, according to the expert.

"It is desirable that the Venezuelan people rallies against the US, which is their real enemy. All this, however, will depend on Maduro's ability to manage the situation also in political terms," he suggested.

Graziani noted that Trump's initiative to recognize Guaido as interim president was "a piece of a long-standing strategy that, as in a mosaic, defines the path of US expansionism in South Central America."

"Trump and his European allies are effectively triggering a civil war that could plunge the entire area into a dramatic situation," he warned.

According to Graziani, the recent boost in NATO-Colombia ties and the Trump administration's "tussle" with Mexico are all part of a "muscle strategy" in the region pursued by Washington together with the current governments in Buenos Aires and Brasilia.