MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 25th January, 2019) The current political turmoil in Venezuela will unlikely remove President Nicolas Maduro from his office since he will be clinging to the constitution and the army's support by all means to defend his legitimacy, experts told Sputnik.
On Tuesday, the Venezuelan National Assembly � which has been acting as opposition to Maduro since the establishment of the Constituent National Assembly, a parallel legislature, last year � declared Maduro an usurper. On Wednesday, National Assembly leader Juan Guaido self-proclaimed himself the country's interim president, arguing that the constitution allowed him to call a new election after the opposition denounced Maduro's last year re-election as illegitimate.
Guaido's demarche was supported by a number of states, including Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Peru and the United States.
Maduro blamed the developments in the country for the United States, arguing that Washington wanted to see a puppet leading Venezuela. He, therefore, announced the decision to sever diplomatic and political relations with Washington.
The European Union urged the Venezuelan authorities to immediately launch a political process in the Bolivarian republic and condemned violence in the country. Russian President Vladimir Putin, for his part, expressed support for the legitimate authorities of Venezuela and called for resolving the crisis in Venezuela within the framework of the constitution.
MILITARY AS CRITICAL SUPPORT GROUP
Bruce M. Bagley, the chair and a professor in the Department of International Studies of University of Miami, believes that Maduro has no plans to step down and will continue to appeal to the constitution as his main trump card in the political stand-off.
"The US is going to embrace him [Guaido], they are going to threaten to take further action if Guaido is arrested but I do not think they are going to be able to stop Maduro from declaring his claim to the presidency as unconstitutional and throwing him in jail. And given that Maduro controls the Supreme Court, almost everything else as well is the constituent assembly, it seems to me that Maduro is going to close himself in the Constitution," Bagley told Sputnik.
According to the expert, another reason why one should not expect that the president would step down is support he retains among what Bagley says the "purged" armed forces.
"The critical support group is the military .... I think few of them are going to risk their gains, their fortunes and, possibly, their lives and their families, by abandoning Maduro at this point. So, it is likely that we are going to see several weeks of turmoil in Venezuela, swift protests, mass arrests possibly, some shootings in the streets by the armed forces, and La Guardia Nacional, but at least, for the foreseeable future, we are at the standoff that it is not going to leave right to the immediate fall of the Maduro government," Bagley opined.
He added that the opposition, in the meantime, did not seem to be unified at all.
The calculation that US recognition of Guaido as Venezuela's interim president would spur the military to rise up against the government is similarly seen as not a very plausible scenario by Mark P. Jones, a professor in the Department of Political Science at Rice University.
Jones expressed an opinion that the authorities would more likely to crack down on the dissenters and close the rebellious National Assembly.
"The more likely outcome is a deepening of the political and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. The recognition of Guaido followed by that of other major countries in the region such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico will place pressure on Maduro to crack down on the opposition-controlled National Assembly. This could include Maduro instructing his Supreme Court to depose Guiado from his post as Speaker or closing down the National Assembly," Jones told Sputnik.
POSSIBLE OIL EMBARGO, OTHER ECONOMIC REPERCUSSIONS
For Bagley, the US swift recognition of the opposition leader as the country's interim president came as no surprise, since Washington has always been "hostile" to the Maduro government. The expert suggested that the United States would later hit Caracas with with harsher sanctions, given calls from US lawmakers.
"There is no doubt that the US is going to further sanctions: oil, possibly, Citgo, freeze bank assets, further sanction the individuals and throw out the Ambassador, but it is still unclear what the US will do and the Trump administration has not spelled it out, they do not have a clear plan," he said.
According to the expert, if faced tougher oil exports restrictions, Caracas will still continue to sell it to other countries that are sympathetic to the Venezuelan government.
"If they cannot sell oil to the US, they are going to continue to sell it to China, to other countries that are sympathetic. And they are going to have some of the ALBA [Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America] countries, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Cuba that are going to object to the US actions against Venezuela in the United Nations. There are going to be many countries, Iran, for example, Russia, China that are going to object," he said.
Meanwhile, the option of imposing draconian economic restrictions against Venezuela, such as an energy embargo, does not find consensus in the United States itself, according Christophe Ventura, a senior research fellow at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) specializing on Latin America.
"Trump has to deal with the disagreement of the American petrol sector which does not want these sanctions, this embargo, because Venezuelan gas makes a good part of US's activity in the sector, allows it to employ a lot of people in different states. There are contradictions in the United States that Trump has to resolve," Ventura told Sputnik.
In general, experts agreed that the political crisis will likely have economic repercussions, further weaken the already ailing Venezuelan Currency and exacerbate social issues in he country.
"If the military in Venezuela stays loyal, then you are going to see a very difficult situation, increased migration out of Venezuela, they are already predicting another million or two over 2019, especially, to Colombia but also to other countries, you are going to see inflation to go absolutely wild, up to 10 millions, at this point it does not even make sense to even talk about it because the Bolivar is essentially worthless, and the Petro has not been able to stand the time, the Venezuelan economy is broke," Bagley claimed.
According to Jones, 98 percent of Venezuelan exports revenues come from petroleum exports, almost half of which go to the United States, with the possible Washington's sanctions against Venezuela likely to deprive Caracas of hard currency.
"For a time the Venezuelan government would be deprived of a significant portion of the hard currency it needs to import basic necessities that are the only thing standing between many Venezuelans and starvation, since the country's socialist policies have destroyed domestic production," Jones suggested.
According to Bagley, despite the harsh rhetoric and apparent pressure Trump faces from some lawmakers, the US president is reluctant to initiate any military action against Venezuela, being weary of stoking a full-blown conflict in the country and shouldering responsibility for its long-ranging consequences.
"I think the President Trump is going to be quiet reluctant; because, if the US is takes the military action against Venezuela, we are going to own that country and rebuild it and that could take a generation and precipitate a guerrilla war both the Colectivos and Las Milicias Urbanas along with support from dissident FARC and ELN groups that are seeking safe harbor in Venezuela," he said.
Meanwhile, Latin American countries, despite their rhetoric, are also unenthusiastic about military invasion in Venezuela, since "none of them want to have a prolonged military presence," the expert added.
VENEZUELAN CRISIS AS PLATFORM FOR NEW INTERNATIONAL STANDOFF
The crisis in Venezuela has mobilized not only the neighboring Latin American countries and the United States, but also such major powers, as Russia, China and Europe.
"Today Venezuela is in crisis which is highly political and international; it mobilizes all the world powers, including Russia, the US clearly, but also Turkey, China. Venezuela is a country where lay all the international fractures and lines of international geopolitical force ... Today the most obvious scenario is that of an escalation, whose consequences are uncountable," Ventura said.
According to the expert, the diverging approaches to the Venezuelan events reflect "the conflict between the two visions of the international relations: that of the US, eliminating the regime which it does not like" and those who defend the legitimately-elected government.
Lisa Blackmore, the director of the Centre for Latin American Studies at the University of Essex, agreed that the situation around Venezuela should be seen as a "global issue."
"I think certainly it's a global issue that we are looking at. If one looks at the world map of the countries that have come out in support of Maduro, there is a very clear representation of Russia, China obviously in the opposition of the US," Blackmore told Sputnik.
She also noted that the escalation of the Venezuelan political crisis came amid Latin America's critical turn to the "right."
"Really, only Uruguay, Mexico and Bolivia came out with supportive or more moderate calls for either respecting Maduro's rule or for entering the process of mediation. Certainly, we will see over the day whether there is escalating tension between Russia-China and the States on the other hand," she added.
RAMIFICATIONS FOR AMERICANS IN VENEZUELA AND VENEZUELANS IN THE US
When asked to comment on possible ramifications that the situation will have for ordinary people, Begley suggested that the Venezuelans in the United States will be granted temporary protected status as a result of lobby efforts of some of the Republican senators.
"For Venezuelans, even if they are not legal, they will have temporary protected status, sponsored by Republicans, so as long as the situation remains completely unstable, those Venezuelans in the US, are probably going to be relatively secure as they are going to sponsor further US action against Venezuela because they want their families to be reunited, they want their properties returned," he said.
US personnel, meanwhile, would be withdrawn from the Latin American country, while other US citizens would be recommended to follow suit, according to Begley.
"We are going to see all American personnel removed from the country, most private sector personnel are going to be encouraged to leave the country, and individual Americans on the streets, if confronted with the Coletivos or Milicias Urbanas, could actually come in to some very rough treatment. So, it is going to be very unfriendly, to say the least, and possibly dangerous for American citizens in Venezuela," the expert noted.
LATIN AMERICA, EUROPE DIVIDED AS US CREATES DANGEROUS PRECEDENT
According to Ventura, the US decision to recognize the non-elected opposition leader as interim president is a dangerous precedent of "political relativism," which has left both Latin America and Europe split.
"We also see new divisions emerging. First is in the Latin America, with Mexico, which is very important. The fact that Mexico decided to distant itself from the radicalization and the regime change makes it probably the only state today capable of to play a role of a mediator, contact point, diplomatic strategy, minimum dialogue in Venezuela. Uruguay too does not accept the position of the Lima Group and does not recognize the new president of Venezuela," he said.
Europe similarly seems to be more divided on the issue of Venezuela now, with some countries demanding that an international contact group be set up to establish dialogue between the government and the opposition, and feeling "uncomfortable" about US-promoted regime change in the Latin American country, the expert added.
