The US announcement of its plans to withdraw troops from Syria may be a cover for "nightmarish scenarios" where Washington will deal a massive strike on the Iranian forces in the Arab republic or even attempt to overthrow the government in Damascus, Vitaly Naumkin, the academic director of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, told Sputnik in an interview
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 11th January, 2019) The US announcement of its plans to withdraw troops from Syria may be a cover for "nightmarish scenarios" where Washington will deal a massive strike on the Iranian forces in the Arab republic or even attempt to overthrow the government in Damascus, Vitaly Naumkin, the academic director of the Russian academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, told Sputnik in an interview.In December, US President Donald Trump announced that his country would pull out its forces from Syria because the Islamic State terrorist group (banned in Russia) had been defeated. At the same time, however, Washington said it would not publicly disclose a time line for the process and pledged that the US-led international coalition's fight against terrorism would continue.
"There are the following nightmarish scenarios: one of them is based on suspicions that, now that Trump will withdraw all Americans from Syria, his allies will follow suit, and then someone will again carry out a provocation with chemical weapons, which will be attributed to [Syrian President Bashar] Assad, and then the Americans will deal a massive strike on targets in Syria ... And that all the this talk [about the troop withdrawal] is a cover, and the objective is to strike the Iranians and also to overthrow the Syrian government," Naumkin said.
According to the academic, a number of experts share these suspicions, and this scenario should not be dismissed as speculation.
Chance to regain control over east of Euphrates
Naumkin suggested that if Trump delivered on his promise and actually withdrew US forces, then the Syrian government would do its best to restore control over the territory to the east of the Euphrates.
"We are still unaware of how [troop pullout] will be carried out, whether it will be a 100 percent withdrawal or not. A very serious negotiation process is underway on all tracks ... It is difficult to say so far who will take the place of the Americans. I believe that the Syrian army, with Russia's support, will do everything to bring the territory to the east of the Euphrates under its control. It is very important economically," Naumkin pointed out.
Speaking about the Kurds, Naumkin expressed hope that they would agree to some serious concessions to Damascus and refrain from radical demands in light of the planned withdrawal of US forces, a move that was largely seen by the group as a betrayal.
He also said that a delegation of Syrian Kurds visited Moscow in December, with whom he, himself, met. The delegates also had a meeting with Foreign Ministry officials.
According to Naumkin, the delegation included "people connected" with the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), the Rojava autonomy, a self-governing region in northeast of Syria not recognized by Damascus, and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), "whom our Turkish friends consider a terrorist organization, while Russia does not consider them as such."
US HAMPERS POLITICAL PROCESS TO UNDERCUT RUSSIA'S DILOMACY
Speaking about the political process in Syria, Naumkin said that the West, in particular the United States, was putting up obstacles by being reluctant to support or directly seeking to undermine proposals promoted by Russia, Iran and Turkey, the three ceasefire guarantor states.
According to him, the reason behind this is US fears that the launch of a political process would strengthen Russia's positions globally.
"The United States is afraid that the success of the constitutional process and the fact that it will result in real progress in the political settlement will lead to an even greater boost of Russia's prestige in the middle East and across the international community. Therefore, there are attempts to disrupt the process, drag it on and show that the guarantor states cannot cope with the task, that Russia cannot do it. Such attempts have always been made and continue to be made," the academic clarified.
According to Naumkin, such attempts may continue under recently appointed UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, a Norwegian diplomat.
"In any case, he is a man of Western culture, a man from the West. Any special envoy has his own program of activities, own ideas about what is right, but he, first and foremost, reports to the UN Security Council, and, most importantly, will, along with his predecessor, act in accordance with instructions of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres ... There is quite a strong influence of Western powers, especially the United States, in the United Nations. This is a reality to be taken into account," Naumkin stressed.
MAIN FIGHT AROUND CONSTITUTIONAL COMMITTEE
The academic also commented on the struggle around the creation of the Syrian constitutional committee, which will be tasked with rewriting the country's main laws.
He recalled that the main struggle currently lay with choosing representatives of civil society that will form the third part of the 150-strong committee government and opposition representatives who make up the other two parts of the body have already been agreed upon.
According to Naumkin, Damascus at first refused to accept the list offered by then-UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura. Later, at the meeting in Geneva on December 18, the latter expressed no enthusiasm for a list that was agreed by Syrian ceasefire guarantors in coordination with the Syrian government.
The essence of the disagreement boils down to "what will be the weight of loyalists in this constitutional committee," the academic said.
"Naturally, the government would like the absolute majority of members of the constitutional committee to either represent the government or be loyal to it. The UN believes that everything should be decided taking into account the opinion of those who are not among the loyalists," Naumkin explained.
He did, however, express hope that the sides would still be able to come to some compromise.
