RPT: PREVIEW - Brexit, Elections In Europe, INF Treaty's Fate Main Focuses To Shape Politics In 2019

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 28th December, 2018) The word "exit" has every chance to become one of the main ones to define the upcoming year in global politics, from the United Kingdom's scheduled withdrawal from the European Union, to the looming pullout of the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and even Russia's possible exit from the Council of Europe.

Emperor Akihito of Japan, 85, is also poised to quit, with his abdication expected in late April over health reasons. It will be a move that the country has not seen since 1817.

Apart from these events, the year of 2019 will see elections held in the European Union, Ukraine and Afghanistan. Certain progress is also expected to be made in the Syrian political settlement process, and new international sanctions against Russia cannot be ruled out.

These are the key events that Sputnik believes will define politics in the upcoming year.

The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. Since June 2017, the sides have been engaged in tough negotiations on the terms of the so-called divorce. However, three months ahead of the United Kingdom's formal withdrawal, it is still unclear how exactly this will happen.

In November, the UK government approved a draft Brexit deal that had been agreed upon with Brussels. The document covered citizens' rights, financial settlement, the transitional period and Irish border, and it seemed that the long-anticipated agreement had been reached. But, it has only sparked more heated debates within the United Kingdom.

Some political forces, including the ruling Conservative Party and opposition lawmakers, suggested that the UK government had made too many compromises, agreeing to a so-called soft Brexit. As a result, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Esther McVey, Minister of State for Northern Ireland Shailesh Vara as well as several deputy ministers resigned. Prime Minister Theresa May herself faced a leadership challenge from her fellow party members.

May survived, but major political challenges are still ahead. Days before the House of Commons' scheduled vote on the contentious Brexit deal, the prime minister pushed it back to January amid lawmakers' concerns over the Irish border backstop, which could potentially see the country remain in the EU Customs Union indefinitely once the transition period is over at the end of 2020. May pledged to secure additional reassurances on the provision from Brussels, which has said it would refuse to renegotiate the deal.

Meanwhile, support for a second Brexit referendum has been gaining momentum in the country. Therefore, if the UK parliament does not endorse the agreement with the European Union, the country can expect either a second referendum or a no-deal Brexit, an option that entails serious economic implications and financial losses.

US INF TREATY EXIT THREATENS TO UNLOCK NEW ARMS RACE

It unclear yet what awaits the world in the area of global security. One of the main negative factors could be the US potential pullout from the INF Treaty.

The Soviet Union and the United States signed this document in 1987 agreeing to eliminate two classes of nuclear weapons: ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (311 to 3,417 miles), as well as their launchers.

The treaty is open-ended, but Moscow and Washington have subsequently started noting that the treaty does not take into account modern realities, as many countries now have similar weapons and are not bound by the same obligations. Russia has proposed making the treaty multilateral, but Washington has avoided starting a dialogue on this matter.

In October 2018, the United States unilaterally announced its plans to withdraw from the agreement, accusing Russia of allegedly failing to comply with its obligations and testing a ground-launched cruise missile with a range prohibited by the treaty.

Moscow has, in turn, refuted the claims and reiterated its concerns over the United States' use of assault drones and deployment of Mk-41 launching systems, which are capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles in violation of the INF Treaty, in Europe.

According to Moscow, the United States has not officially notified it of its decision to leave the treaty. Instead, on December 4, US State Secretary Mike Pompeo gave Russia an ultimatum � the United States would suspend its obligations under the INF Treaty if Russia was not in full compliance with the treaty within 60 days.

If the accord is dismantled, the world risks witnessing the start of a new global arms race. Moreover, Washington's decision to overhaul its participation in the treaty casts a shadow over the possibility of prolonging the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which expires in 2021.

In November, for instance, US Sen. Tom Cotton and Rep. Liz Cheney introduced a bill that seeks to prevent the extension of the New START until the US president certifies to Congress that Russia has agreed to verifiably reduce its stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons and include its new weapons systems under the limits of the accord.

WILL RUSSIA LEAVE COUNCIL OF EUROPE?

The coming year may bring an end to the prolonged crisis in relations between Russia and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), which began in April 2014 after Russia was stripped of its voting rights in the assembly over the events in Ukraine and Crimea's reunification with Russia. Since 2016, the Russian delegation has not been renewing its credentials ahead of the assembly's sessions in protest of the discrimination it faces within the organization.

In June 2017, Moscow froze part of its Council of Europe contribution meant for Russia's PACE membership for 2018 until its delegation's rights in the organization were completely restored.

This move by Russia, one of the main contributors to the organization's budget, was met with a swift reaction from Strasbourg. Secretary General of the Council of Europe Thorbjorn Jagland recalled that if a country does not pay its contributions for two years, the committee of ministers may consider expelling said country from the organization. This two-year period for Russia expires at the end of June 2019.

However, it is possible that Moscow will not wait until it is asked to leave. Commenting on this situation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that Russia would not "bring such joy" to those who want to expel it from the Council of Europe, but would leave the organization on its own.

The sanctions pressure on Russia shows no sign of abating. The US Congress will continue consultations on anti-Moscow sanctions in 2019, with several bills on the matter already having been tabled this year.

The first bill is meant to punish Russia for its alleged interference in the 2016 presidential election, something that Moscow has repeatedly denied. It provides for sanctions to take effect automatically without the president's consent. It also aims to freeze the assets and accounts of Russian state banks in the United States, block the assets of large Russian energy and defense companies and ban US investors from purchasing Russian state and corporate debt securities.

The second draft law, which was introduced by a group of US senators, has been described by one of its authors, Lindsey Graham, as a "sanctions bill from hell." It proposes, in particular, banning US residents from conducting operations with the country's sovereign debt, block dollar-denominated transactions by Russian banks and limit investments in the Russian energy sector.

Another portion of potential sanctions is a second package of restrictions against Russia in connection with the Skripal poisoning case � allegations that Moscow has similarly dismissed. The bill provides for six options for sanctions. The restrictions may reportedly include scaling down diplomatic relations, suspending flights of Russian airline Aeroflot to the United States and almost halting US trade with Russia. According to the US State Department, Russia could avoid these measures by pledging it will never use chemical weapons in the future.

Commenting on the Western sanctions linked to the Skripal affair, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on December 20 that foreign states continued introducing new restrictive measures against Russia even though Sergei Skripal and his daughter were alive after the yet unexplained attempt on their lives. Putin described this as an example of a "politicized Russophobic approach" as well as a pretext for staging new attacks against Russia.

SYRIA ON WAY TO CONSTITUTIONAL REVIEW

The long-awaited transition to a Syrian political settlement process may start in 2019, eight years after the conflict in the country broke out. With most of the heavy fighting now over and significant victories over terrorists achieved by the Syrian army with the help of Russian troops, there have so far been no major breakthroughs in terms of the political process.

The first meeting of the Syrian constitutional committee, which will be tasked with rewriting the country's main law, is expected to be held in early 2019. The guarantor countries of the Astana peace process � Russia, Iran and Turkey � agreed to commit themselves to this goal following a meeting with UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura in Geneva on December 18.

With lists of participants from the government and opposition already agreed upon, the main struggle is now choosing representatives of civil society that will form the third part of the 150-strong committee. The announcement of the list, which was scheduled for late 2018, has been delayed due to disagreements between the United Nations and the guarantor countries over these 50 remaining Names.

The decision to launch the process of a constitutional review was agreed upon during the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in the Russian resort city of Sochi on January 29-30, 2018.

The presidential election in Ukraine is likely to become a key event that will affect the political landscape across all territories of the former Soviet Union. The election will be held in late March and will be followed by parliamentary elections in October.

However, the fate of the presidential election was called into question after President Petro Poroshenko declared martial law in several Ukrainian regions in response to the November 25 incident in the Kerch Strait when two Ukrainian naval ships and their crews were detained by Russian border guards for illegally crossing the Russian maritime border. The 30-day period of martial law ended on December 26 and Poroshenko confirmed that the election would be held on March 31.

The Kremlin called the whole provocation an attempt to boost Poroshenko's falling approval ratings ahead of the upcoming election.

The Ukrainian president is indeed far from being a front-runner in the polls compared to other potential candidates. According to a December poll by Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko would have won the presidential election with 21.2 percent of the vote if it were held in November. Ukrainian entertainer Volodymyr Zelensky would have gotten 14.6 percent, while only 11.6 percent of respondents would have cast their votes for the incumbent president.

With regard to the parliamentary elections, a survey published by SOCIOPOLIS pollster on November 22 showed that Tymoshenko's pro-European party Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) would have won with 22 percent of the vote if the election were in the first half of November, while only 8 percent would have backed Petro Poroshenko's Solidarity bloc. Zelensky's Sluha Narodu (Servant of the People) party would have come in second place with 11 percent of the vote, followed by the Civic Position party and the Opposition Bloc with 10 percent and 9 percent of the vote, respectively.

According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, "as long as Russophobes who do not know where the interests of their people lie walk 'corridors of power' in Kiev, this abnormal situation [in relations between the two countries] will continue, no matter who is in power in the Kremlin."

WHAT WILL COMPOSITION OF NEW EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT BE?

The next elections to the European Parliament will be held on May 23-26. Despite being an important body that represents more than 500 million EU citizens, the new parliament will consist of a mere 705 members and will be smaller than some national legislative assemblies.

The upcoming elections are notable in that they will be the first after the United Kingdom's withdraw from the European Union. Even without Brexit, though, the bloc has faced many challenges since the 2014 elections, such as the debt crisis in Greece, budgetary problems in several other countries and the worst migration crisis since World War II.

All these events have contributed to the rise of populist and far-right parties, which could strengthen their positions in the election.

However, the centrist European People's Party (EPP) will most likely maintain its leadership, which it has held onto for two decades, as well as the mandate of the president of the European Commission. But given the losses in the social democrats' camp, the potential increase in representation of right-wing populists and leftists will complicate the decision-making process in the European Parliament.

Afghanistan, meanwhile, is poised to hold a presidential election on April 20 unless media reports claiming that the national election commission intended to postpone it by three months are confirmed.

The continuous fighting between Kabul and the Taliban radical movement remains the main obstacle to the stabilization of the situation in the country. There is still no direct dialogue between the two conflicting sides, with terrorist attacks continuing to rock the country.

However, certain progress was made in the outgoing year. On November 9, Moscow hosted a meeting on the Afghan peace settlement. For the first time, the Doha-based Taliban political office took part in the international peace talks of such a level. The Afghan side was represented by the High Peace Council, backed by ex-president Hamid Karzai, however, Kabul stressed that it did not endorse the council.

The meeting, however, gave hope that direct negotiations between Kabul and the Taliban could take place at the beginning of 2019.

No matter whether such a meeting takes place or not, the establishment of relations with the Taliban will likely to be a vital priority for the country's new president. Only incumbent President Ashraf Ghani has so far officially announced his presidential bid.

The emperor of Japan will abdicate for the first time since in 1817 in the upcoming year.

At the end of April, Emperor Akihito, 85, will step down for health reasons, and Crown Prince Naruhito, who will be 59 years old at the time, will succeed his father on May 1.

Akihito announced his intention back in August 2016. Japanese law did not provide for the emperor's "retirement," but a special law was passed specifically for Akihito as an exception. The law allows Akihito to abdicate, paving the way for his son to take the throne.

Now a government committee, which is involved in the preparation of the succession ceremony, is actively involved in calculating the related expenses, which are expected to be reduced in comparison with Akihito's accession to the throne. It is planned to reduce the number of the ceremonies' guests and the number of ceremonies themselves.