Valentina Shvartsman - By calling an early general election, Israeli Prime MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 26th December, 2018) inister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to distract the public from the ongoing corruption investigation concerning his activities and ultimately discredit it, but the outcome of the vote as well as further developments around possible charges are harder to predict, experts told Sputnik.
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 26th December, 2018) Valentina Shvartsman - By calling an early general election, Israeli Prime MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 26th December, 2018) inister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to distract the public from the ongoing corruption investigation concerning his activities and ultimately discredit it, but the outcome of the vote as well as further developments around possible charges are harder to predict, experts told Sputnik.On Monday, leaders of Israel's ruling coalition decided to move up the country's parliamentary elections from November to April 9, 2019, with the current Knesset convocation to be dissolved by then. Netanyahu said that he was confident he would win the early elections and that the majority of the Israeli electorate agreed with his government's agenda.
The announcement came in the wake of the November resignation of Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and withdrawal of his right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party from the ruling coalition over the cabinet's decision to accept a ceasefire ending recent hostilities against Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip. The withdrawal has not deprived Netanyahu of the parliamentary majority but did reduce the ruling coalition to 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu and his wife, Sarah, have been allegedly involved in the Bezeq-Walla corruption affair, also known as Case 4000. They are accused of promoting the interests of Bezeq, the country's largest telecommunications provider, in exchange for favorable coverage of Netanyahu's activities on the popular news website Walla, which is controlled by the company. The Israeli Prime Minister has also been suspected of getting expensive gifts from business circles (Case 1000) and trying to reach a deal with the leadership of the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper (Case 2000). However, Netanyahu has refuted all the accusations, dismissing them as a media-orchestrated smear campaign.
The Israeli government reportedly decided to hold an early general election due to disagreements over a new military conscription bill. The controversial legislation concerns the long-debated issue of conscripting ultra-Orthodox seminary (yeshiva) students, who are exempt from compulsory military service under current laws.
Moran Stern, an adjunct lecturer at the Program for Jewish Civilization in Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh school of Foreign Service, told Sputnik that the decision to hold early elections reflected "Netanyahu's repeated method of addressing 'heated' domestic issues, such as the conscription bill, by simply not addressing them."
"In the process, Netanyahu will skillfully shift the blame for his and his government's indecision on his coalition partners. In doing so, Netanyahu hopes to marginalize Likud's right-wing competitors as well as further bolstering the number of Likud's parliamentary seats on the expanse of other right-wing parties, mainly the Jewish Home party," Stern said.
Dr. Gayil Talshir of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem's Department of Political Science told Sputnik that possible the corruption charges were likely to be behind the move.
"Netanyahu hopes to win the next election before the official indictment and hearing," Talshir said.
Dr. Israel Sergio Waismel-Manor, the chair of the Division of Governance and Political Theory at the University of Haifa, echoed his peers' views in his comments to Sputnik, saying that a potential indictment rather than debates over the military conscription bill was the reason for the early elections.
"One way to at least try to avoid those indictments is to go for elections ... If the indictment comes only after election results are called then he would have so-called mandate from the people who voted regardless of these allegations and he would tell the public 'you know my decisions and you still voted for me, and therefore we should call this investigation off,'" Waismel-Manor said.
The expert noted, however, that the deteriorating economic situation as well as certain challenges on the global stage could have factored in the decision.
"The economy is doing worse than it was doing, and Netanyahu has to run on even worse economy. Globally as well, the situation in terms the border with Lebanon, the Hamas, and even the chances of the President of the United States putting on the table a negotiation deal that is not something that right-wing voters would appreciate - all seem to haste this decision," Waismel-Manor said.
Additionally, Yisrael Beiteinu's withdrawal from the ruling coalition weakened Netanyahu's grip on power by leaving it with only a one-seat majority in the Knesset, the expert noted.
"One has to acknowledge that it is hard to maintain a coalition that has 61 members in the 120-seat parliament, in which sometimes members of the parties can go their conscience, not their party's line. Every individual may vote against the government. Therefore it is a very tricky way to maintain a coalition," he said.
The first public opinion poll after the announcement of the snap elections, published on Tuesday in the Maariv daily newspaper, showed that Netanyahu's ruling Likud party could win 30 seats in the 120-seat parliament. Together with the other right-wing, religious and center-right parties comprising Netanyahu's right-wing bloc, Likud is on course to retaining its majority in the Knesset.
However, it is too early to make any assumptions regarding the possible outcome of the elections, Waismel-Manor noted.
"Trying to predict [the election results] now is like trying to predict the weather for four months from now, it is just impossible to say," he said.
It is still unclear who else will run against Netanyahu. Benny Gantz, the former head of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), is reportedly preparing to run in the elections, but it is still unclear whether he will join an existing party or form a new one.
According to Waismel-Manor, the lack of clarity on Netanyahu's possible opponents on the ballot is among numerous factors that could influence the upcoming vote.
"There are so many factors here that we cannot factor in, it is not a regular election for at least two main reasons. First, there is this element of surprise: we do not how it is going to play out, will he be indicted or not; if he is indicted what are going to be the charges � corruption or just something more minor. The second thing is that you cannot forecast election results if you do not know who the contenders are. As of now, we do not know who are going to be the main contenders now on the other side," Waismel-Manor said.
According to Stern, Netanyahu has the highest chances for re-election because he has managed get rid of opponents within his party.
"During his tenures as prime minister, Netanyahu was able to position himself as irreplaceable. Netanyahu has purged Likud of potential contenders to his leadership and in their stead allowed the emergence of highly mediocre politicians whose very political survivability is dependent on him," he said.
The expert suggested that the upcoming election campaign would be intense, since Netanyahu and his supporters would attempt to depict the corruption investigation as a "witch hunt" against him.
"I believe we are about to witness Israel's most inciteful elections campaign. Netanyahu and members of his party will intensify their depiction of the investigations against Netanyahu as a well-orchestrated witch-hunt by members of the Israeli left, the courts, the police, the media, and the law enforcement authorities," Stern said.
The future of Netanyahu's political career is questionable amid the corruption allegations.
According to Talshir, possible corruption charges might lead to the collapse of a future government even if Netanyahu avoided indictment before the vote and managed to secure a majority.
"If the indictment is postponed till after the election Netanyahu may compose the new coalition but it will fall apart on the day after the hearing since ... the extreme-right-right coalition is unlikely to receive more than 61 of the Knesset seats and all center and left parties would not participate in a government with an indicted prime minister," the expert said.
Waismel-Manor pointed out that Netanyahu would likely have to step down after being officially indicted even though there was no such precedent set by the Supreme Court for a prime minister.
"We have a precedent set by the Supreme Court that says that ministers have to resign if they are indicted, but we have such precedents for prime ministers ... If he [Netanyahu] is indicted, I think that the expectation would be that he needs to resign," the expert said.
As for the military conscription bill, Netanyahu is likely to face a lot of pressure on the issue after the elections, since he was highly dependent on the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party and would avoid steps that may affect their relationship, according to Stern.
"It is therefore absolutely naive to think that Netanyahu, whose political survivability is tied to the support of the ultra-Orthodox establishment, will act differently on matters concerning the conscription bill - or in fact concerning any legislation that jeopardizes the assets of the ultra-Orthodox establishment - should he be reelected," the expert said.
On the other hand, pressure was mounting from two other potential partners for his next government � Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Ya'ir Lapid's Yesh Atid � which both advocate the bill.
"Two of Netanyahu's potential partners for his next government, Avigdor Lieberman and Ya'ir Lapid, are firm rivals of UTJ and will press hard for a conscription bill to pass. They might even precondition their support of him in explicit commitments to legislate a conscription bill. How Netanyahu plans to pass such a bill in a way that will satisfy all parties involved remains unclear," Stern said.
The Knesset will hold a session on Wednesday devoted to the bill on self-dissolution as well as snap general election. If over half of 120 members of Knesset vote in favor of the dissolution, the early elections will take place on April 9. If Netanyahu is reelected he may become Israel's longest serving leader.
