A year has passed since the referendum on independence was organized in Catalonia by the former leadership of the autonomous community, which was conducted in spite of court injunctions, the position of the government and the Spanish Constitution.
MADRID (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 01st October, 2018) A year has passed since the referendum on independence was organized in Catalonia by the former leadership of the autonomous community, which was conducted in spite of court injunctions, the position of the government and the Spanish Constitution.
Meanwhile, the Generalitat and the parliament were replaced in Catalonia; a new government came to power in Madrid; criminal cases of rebellion, sedition and embezzlement were initiated against participants of the events that happened a year ago, and some key players, including the former head of the Catalan government, Carles Puigdemont, fled Spain to escape justice.
But one year was not enough to find a way out of the "Catalan dead-end."
Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Borrell was the only one who had the courage to make predictions about a time frame for when this issue would be settled. This problem has been worrying Spain over the past few years, but the rest of the world, including the European Union, only noticed it on October 1, 2017, when footage of police violence at polling places appeared on all international channels.
Borrell, a former president of the European Parliament and veteran of Spanish politics, predicted that a resolution of the Catalan issue should be expected no earlier than 20 years from now, which to him was a "lucky" estimate. Borrell explained the time frame by citing the strong divisions in Catalan society, and crumbling positions of the Madrid and the Catalan authorities.
Independence supporters announced plans to hold numerous rallies in connection with the anniversary. The demonstrations were held on Saturday, while on Sunday, people gathered at polling places where they voted one year ago. President of the Government of Catalonia Quim Torra will address the citizens on Monday. A march from Barcelona's Placa de Catalunya to the regional parliament building under the slogan "Restore October 1" is scheduled for Monday evening, during which participants will carry ballot boxes with them.
According to the national secretary of the Catalan National Assembly, the largest public organization advocating independence, Georgina Pares, the goal of the protest is to demand that the authorities of the region "finish the process that began on October 1."
"We are not ready to abandon the results of October 1 under any circumstances," Pares told Sputnik, adding that she was "absolutely sure that the current generation will see the Catalan Republic happen."
Torra made a statement over the weekend in the same vein. He called the referendum on Catalan independence "an act of the most massive expression of disobedience in this country." He added that supporters of independence "defeated the state" and should "never give up the right to self-determination" because they would "defend it as they protected it on October 1, peacefully and democratically."
It is still unclear whether events in Catalonia will develop peacefully in the coming weeks.
The first warning signals appeared in the summer, when the so-called war of yellow crosses and yellow ribbons began. During this time, yellow crosses were set up along the beaches by the separatists and yellow ribbons were hung on the streets of Catalan cities, including city hall buildings and the Generalitat in Barcelona. Along with these gestures, activists demanded that the criminal cases initiated against Catalan politicians who were involved in the independence referendum be stopped. These crosses and ribbons were removed by residents who supported a unified Spain.
Sometimes these actions resulted in violence. There were already serious clashes with police in Barcelona during Saturday's rallies, held both by pro-independence supporters and the Jusapol police association, which was calling for a pay raise for police officers. At least 24 people were injured and six people were detained but released the following day.
Supporters of independence, unlike their opponents, are taking to the streets more often, promising a "hot autumn." The latest demonstrations held by people backing a unified Spain attracted about 3,000 people, including the rally led by Jusapol, whose members recalled the persecution of officers of the civil guard and the national police that was in Catalonia in October 2017. Hundreds of thousands came to rallies for a unified Spain at the height of tensions between the autonomous region and the central authorities in the second half of 2017.
"The normalization of the situation is not the slogan under which people can be brought to the streets. It's absurd to ask for democracy in a democratic country," Miriam Tey, the vice-president of the Catalan Civil Society, the largest public organization advocating for the territorial integrity of Spain, told Sputnik.
However, Tey admitted that there were "many dissatisfied" people in the region, while politicians and public figures who upheld the Constitution of Spain were being prosecuted.
"If there is a moment when it is necessary to demonstrate unity, we will take to the streets again," Tey stressed.
The number of supporters and opponents of independence has been almost equal in recent years, and varies only by a few percentage points. According to a survey conducted in July by the Catalan Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), 46.7 percent of Catalan residents were in favor of independence, and 44.9 percent opposed it.
But, separatists, unlike their political opponents, refuse to recognize that there are deep divisions in society.
"There's no sense of divisions in society there are opposing views. It's like in the United States someone likes [US President Donald] Trump, but others don't," Pares said.
The socialist Spanish government, which came to power in early June, has acknowledged not only the existence of a deep Catalan crisis, unlike the previous rightist government, which for many years turned a blind eye to the growth of separatist sentiment in the region, but also deep societal divisions. However, its strategy for overcoming the crisis also raises questions.
Meanwhile, the new Spanish authorities have begun making compromises with the Catalan leadership. During a meeting between Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Torra, two sides discussed specific topics, including financing. After the negotiations, Sanchez announced the possibility of a referendum on self-governance, which would mean a vote on the new statute of autonomy.
But this is not what supporters of independence want. Their main demands are the release of prisoners or, as they call them, "political prisoners," the withdrawal of criminal cases, and an independence referendum. However, Sanchez, like his predecessor Mariano Rajoy, is unlikely to agree to such a referendum, since a vote on the secession of any territory was unconstitutional.
"Both I and Sanchez say 'a referendum of ...' and then we cannot agree. Sanchez talks about 'self-government,' and I insist on 'independence,'" Torra said on September 11, the day Catalonia celebrated its National Day, the Diada.
On this day, supporters of independence managed to bring 1 million people to the streets, according to the Barcelona police.
Torra has so far announced his intention to launch a "constitutional process" when an autonomous community creates a constitution this month. He made this statement while presenting his government's plan for the next four years. Torra has not given up on the idea of "bringing to life the results of October 1 and creating a republic," at least in public statements.
At the same time, he considers himself only the "acting" chairman of the Generalitat and considers Puigdemont, who has fled to Belgium and whom he calls a "political exile," the real head of the Catalan government.
Negotiations between the Spanish and Catalan authorities would have been easier had there not been dozens of criminal cases against the former leadership of the Generalitat, public organizations and law enforcement agencies of Catalonia. It cannot be ruled out that the situation in the region will become heated after the beginning of court hearings and sentences.
The court may impose sentences in the first half of 2019. If they coincided with the May municipal elections, they would have a significant impact on the votes' outcome within the autonomous community, including Barcelona.
Moreover, the unstable situation in Catalonia may lead to early elections in Spain. Currently, parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2020. However, the socialists came to power also with the support of the Catalan nationalists, which may at some point change their mind. Sanchez seems to be prepared for this turn of events.
"If supporters of independence prioritize conflict over cooperation, then the legislature [the mandate of the parliament] will be terminated ... but if cooperation to solve social policies and other issues comes first, we will be able to remain until 2020," the Spanish prime minister said, speaking at a forum in New York.
Many people, including political opponents in Catalonia acknowledge the fact that the independence movement a year after the "referendum" is in a difficult situation.
"The independence movement is in a tough spot. They won the elections [the independence parties gained an absolute majority in the autonomous community's parliament following the December elections] with an impossible program with three promises Puigdemont's return, a republic and the release of prisoners," the leader of the Socialists' Party of Catalonia, Miquel Iceta, said.
However, he is sure, that these promises cannot be fulfilled.
"They cannot fulfill these promises. This leads to certain disorientation. Plus, there is an internal division between different sectors of the Catalan government those who are ready to take a more pragmatic stance and those who remain within the framework of the 'legitimacy of Puigdemont's type,'" he added.
The central authorities are also talking about the absence of a strategy in the Catalan leadership. Madrid believes that independence supporters realize, albeit without admitting it publicly, that the path they had been following did not lead anywhere, but are still unable to set a new course and present a new strategy.
The Spanish authorities believe that, in general, the Catalan leadership follows the rules of the game. However, there are some exceptions, one being the opening of Catalan representative offices (so-called embassies) abroad, which the government challenged in court. And in July, the Cabinet of Ministers challenged in the Constitutional Court a Catalan Parliament resolution on the intention to fulfill the provisions of the resolution from November 9, 2015 on "the start of the process to create a Catalan state in the form of a republic."
The Spanish government has assured that if such violations continued, there would be new lawsuits. Sanchez said that he was ready to reapply Article 155 of the Constitution, which would allow the government in Madrid to govern Catalonia directly, if the situation got out of control, since it was "an excellent constitutional and legal tool to bring Catalonia back within the boundaries of law, statute and constitutionalism."
