MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 22nd March, 2023) Russia's Analytic Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) predicted in its renewed three-year macroeconomic forecast published on Wednesday that in the baseline scenario the average annual exchange rate of the Russian ruble to the US Dollar will be in the range of 71-78.4 rubles in 2023.
The exchange rate will be 70.8-79.8 rubles in 2024, 72.4-83.4 in 2025, according to the experts.
Dmitry Kulikov, the director of the sovereign and regional ratings group, and Elena Anisimova, the senior director of the sovereign and regional ratings group, expect the annual exchange rate of ruble to dollar to be within range of 65.6-72.5 rubles in 2023, 66.7-75.3 rubles in 2024, 67-77 rubles in 2025 in the best-case scenario.
The analysts think that such exchange rate will be possible under certain positive circumstances, including the recovery of oil production after its decline in March 2023 and a real discount of exported oil of less than $25 per barrel to Brent crude oil.
Increased propensity to consumption with presumably local manufacturers meeting the additional demand as well as relatively rapid recovery of investment import are also among the positive factors.
In the pessimistic scenario, the annual exchange rate in 2023 might be 76-84 rubles per dollar, 81.9-92.3 in 2024, 84.5-97.3 in 2025.
Experts believe that possible recession in several large world economies, decreasing global demand and lower prices for Russia's traditional export might be prerequisites for a negative scenario.
In December, the ACRA said that dollar will cost an average of 72 rubles in 2023 and 74.7 rubles in 2024.
In March 2022, US President Joe Biden said that 200 rubles equaled one dollar, despite the fact that at the day he delivered his speech, the exchange rate was below 100 rubles for one dollar.
