MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 30th March, 2022) The latest talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul offer some hope that a peace agreement between the two countries could be achieved, as Ukraine signals its readiness to refrain from joining military alliances, experts told Sputnik.
On February 24, Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine after the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk appealed for help in defending themselves against Ukrainian aggression. The Russian defense ministry said the operation is targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure only.
At the same time, delegations from Kiev and Moscow have been engaged in negotiations to resolve the conflict. The latest round of talks in Istanbul was on Tuesday.
According to Vladimir Medinsky, Russia's chief negotiator, Kiev is willing to adopt neutral status under a system of international guarantees, upheld by UNSC members and Germany, Canada, Poland, Israel and Turkey. The official stressed that Ukraine's proposals on security guarantees do not apply to the territories of Crimea and Donbas.
Meanwhile, the Russian defense ministry announced its decision to significantly decrease military activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv regions of Ukraine. US President Joe Biden later commented on Russia's stated decision to scale back military operations by saying "we will see."
"(Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy's apparent willingness to accept a neutral status for Ukraine, and Russia's willingness to pause its military offensive near Kiev are the first (mildly) encouraging developments since the war began," Cato Institute Senior Fellow Ted Galen Carpenter said.
Carpenter added that "the proposed international guarantees regarding Ukraine's neutrality and security would be challenging to implement," but such a resolution could serve as a viable compromise.
"A major continuing obstacle, though, involves the territorial issues. Would Ukraine be willing to recognize Russia's sovereignty over Crimea and at least full autonomy (if not independence) for the Donbas? Major doubts exist on both issues," Carpenter noted.
The expert's cautious optimism is echoed by Alan Cafruny, a professor of international affairs with the Department of Government at Hamilton College, who thinks that a peace agreement may well be within reach.
"Many issues remain, but Ukraine's membership in NATO has always been a red line for Russia and so neutrality is the first and by far most important step towards agreement. For its part the United States must now renounce escalation and support a compromise resolution," Cafruny stated.
Some, like Gareth Jenkins, a non-resident senior research fellow with the Joint Center Silk Road Studies Program and Turkey Center at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm, are hedging their bets on whether or not a comprehensive peace agreement will be achieved, but allow for the possibility of "at least a de-escalation of the fighting and a reduction - hopefully a complete halt - to the casualties on both sides."
"Russia and Ukraine still appear far apart on the underlying issues and it may take years for their differences to be resolved. But, in the meantime, any interim agreement that saves lives would be very positive," Jenkins said, noting that apart from the issue of neutrality, other matters seem harder to resolve.
When asked about the role of Washington in the crisis, the researcher explained that while not a direct participant in the fighting, the US also stands to lose if the conflict carries on due to damage to the global economy and the risk of further escalation.
"I think that the US is genuinely concerned by the risk of the conflict escalating. The war has already cost too many lives. A direct military clash between the US and Russia would be a global disaster, including for the US. I think Washington is aware of this and also that the risk of an escalation will persist as long as the war in Ukraine continues," the expert elaborated.
Riccardo Alcaro, the research coordinator and head of the Global Actors Program of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, for his part, is much more bearish about prospects for a durable peace unless Russia withdraws its forces to their position before the start of the special operation.
"I don't think the Russian leadership may be willing to accept to basically what they already had before 24 February, so I don't see much room for a peace treaty," Alcaro opined, adding that under current conditions the conflict "may be perhaps frozen but not solved, which means it can restart at any moment."
