The US global force posture review, newly approved by President Joe Biden, could pave the way for sending more arms to Ukraine and provoking a confrontation with Russia, analysts told Sputnik
WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 01st December, 2021) The US global force posture review, newly approved by President Joe Biden, could pave the way for sending more arms to Ukraine and provoking a confrontation with Russia, analysts told Sputnik.
The Pentagon in a statement on Monday said the new Global Posture Review (GPR), which has been accepted by Biden, strengthens "the combat credible deterrent" in Europe against Russia and enables NATO forces to operate more effectively.
The Defense Department also said it was based on GPR assessments that Biden in February decided to rescind the 25,000 US force cap the Trump administration imposed in Germany.
"In addition to the planned increase in force levels in Germany and presumably Poland, which are more symbolic than actually a deterrent, I would expect to see more steps involving sending more offensive weapons and trainer/advisers to Ukraine," former CIA analyst Phil Giraldi told Sputnik.
Giraldi also warned the move could backfire and spark an unnecessary conflict.
"As Russia has no serious intention to recreate the old Soviet Union, nor the resources to do so, the move will be counterproductive, crossing red lines related to vital Russian interests while also alarming those in power in the Kremlin and possibly provoking a crisis where no crisis actually existed," Giraldi said.
It all demonstrates, he added, how out of touch with reality the Biden administration has proven to be.
American University in Moscow President Edward Lozansky believes Biden appeared to want to hold further direct discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin first, but the posture left the way open for expanding US weapons supplies to Ukraine.
"I think they'd prefer to keep things vague until Biden speaks with Putin but I'd not exclude stationing sizable numbers of US and NATO military personnel and increasing lethal hardware supplies (to Ukraine), including missile defense equipment," Lozansky told Sputnik.
Hardliners in Washington knew they could count on the UK and small NATO member states of Central Europe to support them in ratcheting up tensions, Lozansky cautioned. US Congress most likely will approve stationing troops and advisers in Ukraine while increasing the flow of military armaments, Lozansky predicted, which will force the Russians to respond - perhaps asymmetrically.
Moreover, Lozansky added, the fact Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is "unstable" makes the whole drama even more dangerous.
"The smell of war is in the air and the sooner Biden tells the former comedian and the Pentagon to cool it the better," Lozansky said.
University of Pittsburgh Professor of International Affairs Michael Brenner said the force posture's only real significance was that it would embolden Zelenskyy and other gamblers in Kiev to try and provoke new collisions between Washington and Moscow.
"This is all play-acting by self-interested fantasists who are disconnected from reality. It is all based on fallacies and lies. Totally meaningless," Brenner said.
The Biden administration was giving the Ukrainians tacit encouragement to try a "Hail Mary" - or desperate gamble, in US football terms in the Donbass to save a disintegrating regime and its head Zelenskyy, Brenner warned.
"If they go ahead, they'll be wiped out in ten days, NATO will do nothing and Washington will be humiliated. Perhaps, that's something to be welcomed," Brenner added.
Independent Institute Center on Peace & Liberty Director Ivan Eland told Sputnik the strategic reality remained that Russia would probably be able to keep up with any US military improvement in Europe, Germany and Ukraine.
"The United States would need to bring forces from much farther," Eland said. "Therefore, any US increase in capability could lead to retaliation and further escalation."
