ANALYSIS - Warsaw's Refusal To Shut Down Coal Mine, Pay EU Fine May End With Poland Leaving Bloc

BRUSSELS (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 22nd September, 2021) Poland's refusal to close a controversial coal mine near the village of Turow, and pay fines imposed by the European Union for running it, may escalate to a point where the country would have to leave the bloc, experts told Sputnik.

The European Court of Justice announced on Monday that it would fine Poland a daily 500,000 Euros ($586,000) until it acts on an earlier order to close the lignite mine, as its operation threatens to drain groundwater from bordering Czech regions and disrupt drinking water supply in nearby communities. Warsaw, in response, said the mine's closure would undermine the country's and Europe's energy security � Poland depends on the mine for up to 7% of its electrical supply.

Commenting on Brussels-Warsaw tensions, Pierre Vercauteren, a political science professor at the University of Louvain in Belgium, told Sputnik that one of the reasons behind Poland's decision can be found in ill-conceived European energy policies, adding that the dispute may end with Poland being forced to leave the bloc.

"The EU has a target of 55% reduction of its CO2 emissions by 2030 and a net zero target by 2050. This very ambitious target makes it difficult for all the member states to adapt, especially Poland, which relies heavily on the worst form of polluting fossil fuel: coal. The anxiety of Poland is understandable," Vercauteren said.

At the same time, the expert noted, Warsaw's blunt refusal to close the Turow mine and their decision to keep it operational until 2044, or 23 more years, without consulting its neighbors, the Czech Republic and Germany, has isolated Poland even more than it has been within the European Union. The Polish authorities should have consulted, negotiated the matter, and obtained delays on closing the mine, he added.

"It is a very dangerous development for the Polish government and the PiS (Law and Justice) party ... which is in power: a majority of the Poles support them, but the Poles also want to remain in the EU. The court could confiscate large financial amounts due by Brussels to Poland in the framework of the European regional policy or economic development. Poland will have to relent. I do not see any other legal possibility," the professor said.

EU POLICIES LEADING TO THE BRINK OF ENERGY CRISIS

Damien Ernst, a ULiege university professor in Belgium and a specialist of electromechanical engineering and energy, told Sputnik that the EU's stance regarding the Polish mine showed that the bloc was not defending the interests of Europeans anymore, pushing for green energy.

"Facts need to be put in perspective. For me, the European Union decision-makers are being dogmatic on energy and do not defend the interests of European citizens any longer. The Green lobby is pushing the Brussels eurocrats to close nuclear energy, to close all coal power plants, and natural gas is just tolerated. This is not reasonable at such a speed; it dramatically increases the cost of energy in Europe and will create social unrest and economic instability in the coming decade," Ernst said.

The expert believes that the EU is "sinking under the dogmatic decisions imposed by the Greens," without even having built an affordable energy mix to replace the present one, which could bring on an energy crisis.

This looming energy crisis in Europe would cause various problems, such as an increase in the cost of electricity, gas and all other fossil fuels on the spot market. Nor is fully moving to renewable sources of energy a way out, as Europe is also experiencing a very long spell of low wind and mediocre sunlight, the expert said, noting the major problem of renewable energies � intermittence: no wind, no electricity from wind turbines. Even Spain and Greece have to take extreme measures and tax electricity producers, to reduce climbing tariffs for consumers, adds Damien Ernst.

"At the present price of coal, $180 per one tonne, Poland would be foolish to abandon its mining and coal-powered plants. They are right to want a credible alternative. It is the EU that has highly degraded the energy situation," the professor said.

He recalled that Berlin's decision to abandon nuclear energy would cost the country 120 terawatt-hours of gas consumption � Germany will close eight gigawatts of nuclear production by 2022. The same will happen to Belgium if the country closes its nuclear power plants.

"There is no gas shortage in sight but these decisions will 'eat up' a large part of the gas brought to Europe by Nord Stream 2. Norway is also at the peak of its production, and Asia is increasing its consumption, and Asia is consuming more too. The European deciders in Brussels commit a major error. They do not see the problem and refuse to change their ideological line. That is a recipe for grave problems," Ernst concluded.