The rise of the populist People's Party of Canada (PPC) could hinder the establishment Conservative Party's bid to unseat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals come election day on September 20, political strategists told Sputnik
TORONTO (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 16th September, 2021) The rise of the populist People's Party of Canada (PPC) could hinder the establishment Conservative Party's bid to unseat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals come election day on September 20, political strategists told Sputnik.
Most Canadian polls have the race in a virtual tie between the governing liberals and conservatives while the PPC, a populist party founded by Maxime Bernier three years ago, is projected to garner around 5% of the tally.
"If things were to happen (now), I think the Liberals would win the election," political strategist and columnist Clinton Desveaux told Sputnik. "The PPC is going to create vote splits and its essentially going to prevent the Conservatives from winning."
Desveaux said the PPC's poll numbers correlate to the percentage of unvaccinated individuals across the country, and even more closely with those opposing COVID-19 measures.
The PPC has vehemently opposed mandatory vaccination measures, including those for all Federal government employees and inter-provincial travelers as well as plans to introduce proof of immunization documents, better known as "vaccine passports."
Desveaux believes that in Conservative strongholds such as Alberta, where the People's Party commands as much as 19 percent support, there may be enough of a vote split in closely contested areas - usually in the cities of Calgary and Edmonton - to see the Tories lose important seats to rival Liberals and New Democrats.
Aurora Strategy Group Principal consultant Jacqueline Biollo said O'Toole's camp has apparently looked to pivot its message to the center with the PPC gaining momentum with the ultra-right. However, because these efforts have seemed disingenuous, undecided voters may not step up to the plate to support the Conservatives in numbers that would substantially help the party win the election, Biollo told Sputnik.
Biollo also highlighted the situation in Alberta, saying that the PPC may carry enough support to pick up a few seats. She also said the Conservatives are far from the only party concerned by potential vote splits.
"The reality of vote-splitting on the left is more crucial for the Liberals to consider their messaging to their base and differentiate themselves from the NDP (New Democrat Party) if they want to secure a majority, or even minority government win at this point," Biollo said.
The split on the left will see the Liberals increasingly "lump" all right-of-center voters together to scare NDP voters into casting a ballot for Trudeau's party in order to prevent a Conservative government from forming, Desveaux said.
On the campaign trail, Desveaux's words are already coming to fruition with Trudeau, during a stop in the Vancouver area, telling voters, "Despite what Jagmeet Singh and the NDP say, it does make a difference whether or not there's a Conservative or a Liberal government."
However, the Conservative Party is fighting back against assertions that the PPC surge is eating into Conservative support.
"The PPC surge is overblown," a CPC source told Sputnik.
The source also said the Party is confident in its internal polling and sure to "come out ahead" if CPC sticks to its messaging.
Conservative Party affiliates are also downplaying the People's Party rise, with some saying that the populist party is also absorbing fleeing Green Party voters, while others say that some of the Conservative defectors are slowly returning into the fold.
Desveaux, meanwhile, predicts that in the final days Canadians are likely to see O'Toole taking direct aim at Bernier, saying that the Tories have to cut the PPC's momentum off "at the knee" to have a chance at defeating Trudeau and the Liberals.
