US Airstrikes On Syria Highlight Biden Administration's Balancing Act

Marking an unexpected detour from the anticipated diplomatic approach expected of US President Joe Biden administration towards Iran, a US airstrike targeting Iranian-backed militias near Syria's border with Iraq has highlighted the new US administration's carrot-and-stick policy towards the Islamic Republic, experts told Sputnik

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 01st March, 2021) Marking an unexpected detour from the anticipated diplomatic approach expected of US President Joe Biden administration towards Iran, a US airstrike targeting Iranian-backed militias near Syria's border with Iraq has highlighted the new US administration's carrot-and-stick policy towards the Islamic Republic, experts told Sputnik.

Decried by Russia as part of a broader, illegal US presence on Syrian soil and condemned by Biden's fellow Democrats in Congress as a violation of international law and Syrian sovereignty, the airstrike was the first of its nature to have been ordered by the new US administration.

Labeled as an "unambiguous message" to the Iranian leadership in a Pentagon press-release on Wednesday, the airstrikes targeted a number of facilities used by Iran's proxies in Syria in retaliation for recent rocket attacks by pro-Iranian groups against US-led coalition facilities in Iraq's Erbil and Baghdad.

Having signaled his intent to re-engage with Iran, Biden has faced criticism from a Republican-dominated Congress for allegedly having a "soft" stance on the Islamic Republic, a presumption that the new administration has been overtly challenging throughout the course of the past month.

From attempting to seize a suspected shipment of Iranian oil aboard the Greek-owned tanker Achilleas in early February to the latest airstrikes in Syria, the Biden administration's actions have led many to question the feasibility of a US-Iranian rapprochement in the post-Trump era.

Facing strong opposition from Congress, Biden finds himself in a precarious position when it comes to his Iran policy; while seeking to reactivate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on one hand, Biden's "soft" policy on Iran has faced much criticism from the country's Republican-dominated legislative branch.

"I believe that this strike was carried out according to very accurate calculations on the part of the new American administration," Dr. Salem Al Ketbi, a UAE political analyst, told Sputnik.

Having affirmed his administration's plans to re-engage with Iran to reactivate the nuclear deal, JCPOA, during his speech at the 2021 Virtual Munich Security Conference, Biden's latest actions, however, serve to indicate an approach that balances diplomatic efforts with military action.

"President Biden does not want to thwart his plan regarding the resumption of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement, and he also does not want to remain silent on the attacks committed by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq," Dr. Al Ketbi added.

Seen as a balanced response to the activities of Iranian-backed groups in the region, the Biden administration's Iran policy attempts to appease Congress that staunchly opposes a return to the Iran nuclear deal, but only to the extent to which a use of force would not lead to a further deterioration of the already strained relation between the two countries.

"I think that President Biden may sign decisions with other strikes in case the violations of these militias continue, because he will not leave the opportunity for his political opponents to accuse him of weakness, retreat and complacency with Iran," Dr. Al Ketbi continued.

JCPOA REACTIVATION PROSPECTS DIM BUT NOT HOPELESS

Despite the willingness exhibited by both the Biden administration and the Iranian government to return to the JCPOA, the deal finds itself in dire straits in light of domestic opposition in both the US and Iran.

While the general agreement stipulates that the Biden administration is pursuing a policy aimed to expedite the reactivation of the unaltered 2015 deal prior to the anticipated victory of Iran's conservatives in the country's upcoming elections, the prospects of that happening are increasingly slim, with Iran turning down European-mediated negotiations with the US on Sunday.

"There is a different view that says President [Hassan] Rouhani no longer has the opportunity to make political concessions or even to show any negotiation flexibility, he does not have the power to influence the hardliner movement nor the chances of persuading Supreme Leader [Ali] Khamenei of any negotiation options," Dr. Al Ketbi commented on the subject matter.

With the previous US administration's legacy lingering in Iranian-US relations, the ruling moderate government of Rouhani has insisted on the US lifting the Trump-era sanctions before negotiations could be initiated for the reactivation of the JCPOA.

"I believe that what Washington currently fears is more Iranian violations of its obligations contained in the nuclear agreement, and thus the difficulty of retreating from these violations and Iran getting closer to acquiring military nuclear capabilities," Dr. Al Ketbi added.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, congressional opposition to the nuclear deal has made it virtually impossible for Biden to update or otherwise modify the Obama-era JCPOA, which when coupled with the Iranian position risks leading the negotiations to an impasse that is unlikely to be resolved within the discussed time-frame.

"It is better for the Biden administration to wait for what will emerge from the upcoming Iranian presidential elections and negotiate with a new president, as Iran itself did when it delayed and gained time until the democratic administration comes to the White House," Dr. Al Ketbi commented.

Referred to by the media as "hardliners", Iran's conservatives are equally likely to capitalize on the reactivation of the JCPOA after their anticipated electoral win, with the prospects of the nuclear deal's reactivation remaining viable even after the Iranian elections.

"Let us not forget that so-called 'hardliners' are also not opposed to reaching some kind of deal with the US, or reentering the JCPOA � and in fact might relish being able to take credit for a major foreign policy achievement of this kind. So I don't think the upcoming elections in Iran necessarily represent a 'hard deadline'," Dr. John Ghazvinian, the executive director of the Middle East Center at the University of Pennsylvania, told Sputnik.

Despite employing harsher rhetoric towards the United States, Iran's conservatives are unlikely to eschew the current JCPOA or any other prospective nuclear deal, as the country's nuclear program is not a subject of partisan politics.

"I think it is also important to remember that when it comes to the nuclear file, and Iran's red lines around this issue, there is not actually a huge difference between the various Iranian political factions... Fundamentally, the Iranian political class (and most of the Iranian public) is united in its position that Iran's right to a peaceful nuclear enrichment program is a basic national right," Dr. Ghazvinian added.

While both sides have exhibited a willingness to reactivate the nuclear deal, neither side can agree on the exact conditions under which the deal would be reactivated, with multiple Iranian officials calling for the lifting of the unilateral US sanctions, while criticism of the deal from the republican-dominated US congress has renounced its exclusion of Iran's ballistic missile program.

"Let us remember that Iran never left the deal. In fact, all of the measures it has taken in recent months outside the framework of the deal are easily reversible and within the general spirit of the deal ... Fundamentally, if the political will is there, both countries could easily re-enter the JCPOA tomorrow," Dr. Ghazvinian said.

The situation is further exacerbated by the Trump-era assassinations of Quds force leader General Qasem Soleimani and Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, which have made it extremely difficult for Tehran to make any concessions.

"The biggest dilemma here lies in how to return, and with what conditions or in return, because the unconditional return will give Iran an undue political gain, weaken the US administration's position and put it in the target range of its Republican opponents, as well as angering Washington's allies in the Middle East," Dr. Al Ketbi added.

The prospects of reactivating the JCPOA have also raised concerns among the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud calling for a greater GCC role in a proposed JCPOA++ agreement that would address Iran's ballistic missile program and the country's proxies in the middle east.