The global economy is expected to rebound in the second half of 2021 but the recovery is likely to be uneven following the unprecedented crisis and disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Labor Organization (ILO) said in a new report on Monday.
UNITED NATIONS (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 25th January, 2021) The global economy is expected to rebound in the second half of 2021 but the recovery is likely to be uneven following the unprecedented crisis and disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Labor Organization (ILO) said in a new report on Monday.
"While there are expectations that a robust economic recovery will occur in the second half of 2021 with the roll out of vaccination against COVID 19, the global economy is still facing high levels of uncertainty and there is a risk that the recovery will be uneven," the report said.
In its seventh since March report, the ILO revealed that the pandemic has resulted in some 8.8 percent of global working hours being lost in 2020, which is equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs. The losses in the global working hours last year have been approximately four times greater than the global financial crisis of 2009.
The disruption has been spread unevenly throughout the world and mostly felt in the countries in Latin America, Southern Europe, and Southern Asia. Overall, global unemployment increased by 33 million and reached 220 million in 2020.
Women and young people have been hit hardest by the crisis with the latter group dropping out of the labor market and delaying entry into it. This highlights "the all too real risk of a lost generation," the report said.
Looking ahead, the report suggested that the speed and the quality of the recovery will depend on vaccination programs and the implementation of national policies to control the pandemic. It offers three scenarios for recovery: baseline, pessimistic and optimistic.
Under the baseline scenario, global working hours losses will amount to 3 percent in 2021, equivalent to 90 million full-time jobs, while in the pessimistic scenario, working-hour losses will remain at 4.6 percent, equivalent to 130 million jobs.
The optimistic scenario envisages an upsurge in consumer and business confidence with the pandemic being under control. However, a gap of 1.3 percent of global working hours will remain in 2021, corresponding to 36 million full-time jobs, the report said.
To promote the recovery and mitigate the effects of the pandemic, the report recommended a series of policy measures, including fiscal stimulus, targeted measures to reach the most vulnerable social groups, international support for low and middle-income countries and creating jobs in fast-growing sectors.