Despite securing a simple majority in the senate in the vote of confidence earlier this week and thus dodging a downfall, the Italian government is nevertheless most likely to be unable to carry out any significant reform in the remaining two years before the next general elections, experts told Sputnik
GENOA (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 22nd January, 2021) Despite securing a simple majority in the senate in the vote of confidence earlier this week and thus dodging a downfall, the Italian government is nevertheless most likely to be unable to carry out any significant reform in the remaining two years before the next general elections, experts told Sputnik.
On Wednesday, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte won the backing of the senate in the confidence vote with a slim margin. He received a simple majority of votes (156), which is what the constitution technically requires, but failed to secure an absolute majority of 161 senators.
SIMPLE MAJORITY, ALMOST MINORITY
"Yes, it can be considered a minority government," Leonardo Morlino, professor of political science at LUISS University of Rome and former president of the International Political Science Association, said.
In the chamber of deputies on Monday, Conte got 321 votes in support of his government and 259 votes against.
Even though he saved his seat, Conte may find it difficult in the future, having such fragile support, to pass through the parliament certain legislative acts.
"There are various precedents in Italian history. The constitution requires a simple majority, not an absolute majority, to pass laws. So, in theory, this government could continue to rule on a tightrope. However, it would not be able to make important reforms, because to make a constitutional reform, for example, the constitution requires an absolute majority instead of simple, that is, half plus one of all the members and not half plus one of those who vote in the parliament," Michele Ainis, constitutional law expert and professor of public law institutions at the University of Roma Tre, said.
The path through parliamentary commissions can be thorny for Conte even in cases when an absolute majority is not technically required, but when the presence of voters in the parliament is going to be high because of the importance of the issues in question.
One of the promises that Conte made during his addresses to the chamber of deputies and the senate at the beginning of this week was to carry out an electoral law reform.
"I think it can be difficult. Not for a formal problem, in the sense that the electoral law is a law like any other, and therefore a simple majority is enough, but for the fact that in the case of the electoral law, I imagine that all the parties will be present en masse. At that moment the government would no longer have the numbers to get the electoral law approved. All the more so given that the party that caused this pseudo-crisis, Italia Viva, has already declared that it disagrees with the new proportional electoral law," Ainis said.
The government crisis played out last week after two ministers from the Italia Viva party resigned from the cabinet in protest against the economic recovery plan, or National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), promoted by Conte and adopted. PNRR specifies how Italy is going to administer the funds that it is going to receive from the European Union's Next Generation EU instrument.
Ainis noted that the prime minister in the current situation requires support from some new parliamentary group, a political component of the center that gathers parliamentarians from various parties, which is believed to be in the making.
On Thursday, Conte discussed the political crisis with President Sergio Mattarella and got time to find a way out of it, sources at the presidential Quirinal Palace told reporters.
The first test of resilience for the government is going to come on January 27, when the parliament will vote on the report by Minister of Justice Alfonso Bonafede on the state of justice in the country. Italia Viva has already announced it would vote against it.
In the case of an inability to get approval for single legislative proposals, the prime minister still does not have a legal obligation to resign, Ainis explained.
"But at this point, a political obligation arises, a de facto impossibility to govern arises, and therefore if this occurs, the crisis plays out in fact," Ainis said.
According to Morlino, most of all the government is going to stumble over the issues related to the EU funds.
"The central problem is going to be the distribution of the resources that will come from the European plans. On this they will make agreements each time," he said.
Nevertheless, both experts agree the government is going to try to do everything possible to stay in power until the next general elections in two years' time. This is also due to the fact that the next legislature will already have a reduced number of parliamentarians, as it was approved at the constitutional referendum in September. Therefore, a "survival instinct" of the parliament members pushes them to find ways to keep their seats and possibly create new political groups to support the prime minister.
"I believe that paradoxically it will be the major reforms that will become impossible in this parliamentary situation. While micro reforms, those that then leave things as they were, can continue to be done. This is certainly not an advantage for Italy. If this situation remains, there will certainly be a weak government," Ainis said.
ITALIA VIVA: INCOHERENCE OR STRATEGIC CHOICE?
Italia Viva party, the one that triggered the crisis by leaving the cabinet in protest over the recovery plan, did not however vote against the government on Monday and Tuesday. It abstained from voting instead. Its role in the parliament now remains unclear.
"I see it in great difficulty, also because its behavior was not consistent. If you bring about nearly a government crisis, you withdraw your ministers, then you have to vote in the vote of confidence against the government, not abstain. There have been a number of tactical moves that have made this crisis incomprehensible to everyone," Ainis said, adding that such a move deprived the party of credibility.
According to Morlino, however, Renzi will be able to continue to influence the government and eventually find agreements with Conte by playing an important role in being present in the media.
"Italia Viva will be able to acquire more power and visibility. Renzi knows how to play the parliamentary game well," he said.
