MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 14th January, 2021) Turkey's potential attempts to turn Brexit into an opportunity by seeking closer ties and trade deals with the United Kingdom after Brexit are unlikely to prompt the European Union to resume accession talks, experts told Sputnik.
The relations between the European Union and Turkey have long been far from serene. In 2020, long-standing disagreements over Islamic extremism and human rights were overshadowed by a major feud around Turkey's gas drilling in Greek- and Cypriot-claimed territorial waters in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Turkey aspired to become an EU member state since the late 1990s. In 1999, it officially became a candidate and in 2004, was given a list of eligibility criteria for its domestic policies to qualify for membership, a process known as accession negotiations. Since assuming the Turkish presidency in 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdogan moved the country progressively away from these eligibility criteria, also known as chapters, especially with regard to the rule of law and the backing of the separatist Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
In June 2018, the European Union officially declared accession talks with Turkey frozen. By that point, Ankara's foreign policy re-took a pivot to the East, particularly the Turkic and Muslim worlds, abandoned by pre-Erdogan pro-Western Turkish authorities.
The experts were unanimous in ruling out the possibility of Turkey achieving the resumption of EU accession talks anytime soon. The key reason they all cited was that Erdogan's Turkey grew too renegade for Europe's framework of good democratic governance.
"No, I don't think that there is much chance of a resumption of accession talks. The European Parliament and public opinion is heavily against Turkey. Erdogan's confrontational statements have seriously impaired bilateral ties with the EU, and Greece and France will remain steadfast in their opposition to getting any progress. The autocratization process in Turkey makes this possibility highly unlikely," Berk Esen, an assistant professor and vice chair in the Department of International Relations at the Bilkent University in Ankara, told Sputnik.
Esen was concurred by Birol Baskan, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based middle East Institute, who also opined that the tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean were the least of the factors miring the EU-Turkey relationship.
"I do not think that there is a chance [for EU-Turkey accession talks to resume] ... Turkey has become too authoritarian for the EU," Baskan told Sputnik.
Erdogan himself, given the long-time decline of his domestic popularity, would not risk loosening the grip over dissent and likely facing even greater unpopularity as a result only to please Europe, Gareth Jenkins, a non-resident senior research fellow with the Joint Center Silk Road Studies Program and Turkey Center at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm, told Sputnik.
"No. I don't think there is any possibility of any resumption of meaningful talks about Turkey's membership of the EU for the foreseeable future, certainly not while President Erdogan remains in power," Jenkins said.
Moreover, Jenkins argued that the momentum for EU-Turkey ties currently moves in a direction opposite to rapprochement, and Brexit likely does more bad than good to it.
"The UK's departure from the EU is a major blow for Turkey. The UK's departure has tilted the balance of power in the EU even further towards those who are hostile to Turkey," Jenkins said.
According to the expert, even though the Brexit campaign cited Turkey's possible EU membership as a reason for UK citizens to vote leave, in actuality, the United Kingdom has historically been one of Turkey's supporters within the bloc, "albeit for its own interests, namely a desire for a broader rather than a deeper union."
"Turkey will try to turn Brexit into an opportunity by seeking close ties and trade deals with the UK government, not to mention push for more British investments to come to Turkey," Bilkent University's Esen said.
The policy of appeasement that the EU has adopted toward Erdogan over the past decade succeeded in neither curbing his oppressive policies at home nor discouraging him from a destabilizing influence in the region, it was argued by Jenkins.
"There is a growing awareness that something needs to change, particularly as Erdogan's aggressive policies increasingly create tensions within the union. Unless Erdogan changes his policies, I think EU sanctions are inevitable later this year. The only questions are what they will be and whether they will be effective," the expert said.
The Middle East Institute's Baskan, too, believes that sanctions are the most likely scenario, including due to Turkey's domestic policy circumstances.
"If Turkey backtracks on its hitherto policy in the Eastern Mediterranean, the government will seem too weak at home," Baskan said.
For Esen, who also agrees that the EU is very much likely to sanction Turkey, this has to do with foreign political matters, including the administration change in the United States. Ankara realizes that its drilling activities in the Mediterranean, which it carried out with Donald Trump's connivance, might not enjoy the same support with Joe Biden, according to the expert.
"I think there is a strong possibility that the EU will impose limited sanctions on Turkey if the tension is not defused in the Eastern Mediterranean. Biden's election as the US president has further raised the possibility of the EU taking a strong stance against Erdogan since the incoming Biden administration may also go along with this approach in sharp contrast to Trump's enabling behavior thus far. The Turkish government is aware of this point and would probably want to start talks with Greece if only to prevent a united EU front to develop against it," Esen said.
EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN NORMALIZATION IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT COMPROMISE
"Both sides have pushed themselves into a corner by mobilizing their public opinion and taking a confrontational stance. Thus there seems to be a clear wedge in the position of Turkey and Greece on Eastern Mediterranean. It is important to de-escalate the crisis so that the two sides return to the diplomatic table," Esen said.
The Bilkent University expert opined that Turkey could alternatively seek non-EU allies in the region, such as Israel or Egypt, but added that this would require "substantial maneuver" on Erdogan's part.
Jenkins pointed to the contrast between Greece's and Turkey's official stances on Eastern Mediterranean tensions, saying that Athens always made it clear that there was room for negotiations, while Ankara issued statements and published maps containing non-negotiable claims.
"Some of the claims in the Turkish maps are reasonable, others manifestly not so. Negotiations, and concessions by both countries, are the only way that the issue can be resolved. By publishing claims that can never be unaccepted by any Greek or Cypriot government and insisting that it will never back down from them, Turkey is not leaving any room for negotiation," the expert said.
Pointing to the strong nationalist sentiments in Turkey as in Greece, Jenkins recommended that both refrain from making inflammatory, hard-line public statements that leave the other with no choice but to reply and ultimately escalate the dispute into one "shaped by emotion rather than reason."
In Baskan's opinion, to resolve the Eastern Mediterranean crisis, the European Union should "seriously take Turkey's concerns into account and address them." The expert believes that the two will ultimately manage to develop a working relationship.
