Iran's response to the assassination of Iranian nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh will be limited in view of the future talks with projected US President Joe Biden, though Tehran's warnings that the crime will not go unanswered have already prompted Israel to reinforce security provisions in its foreign diplomatic missions, experts told Sputnik
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 30th November, 2020) Iran's response to the assassination of Iranian nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh will be limited in view of the future talks with projected US President Joe Biden, though Tehran's warnings that the crime will not go unanswered have already prompted Israel to reinforce security provisions in its foreign diplomatic missions, experts told Sputnik.
Fakhrizadeh, one of the key figures in Iran's nuclear program and the head of the Iranian Defense Ministry's innovation center, was killed in an attack near the northern Iranian town of Absard on Friday. According to media reports, the scientist was killed by a remote-controlled machine gun after he got out of his armored car. The assassination came two days before the 10th death anniversary of another Iranian nuclear physicist, Majid Shahriari.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and several other high-ranking Iranian officials accused Israel of being behind the assassination, urging the international community to condemn the act. President Hassan Rouhani, in turn, warned of a response "at the right time." The Office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Sputnik that it would not comment on the Iranian statements regarding the alleged Israeli engagement in Fakhrizadeh's assassination.
In the wake of the assassination, the Iranian parliament passed a bill, dubbed "The strategic measure for the removal of sanctions," aimed at revitalizing the country's nuclear activities. The lawmakers require that the government remarkably boost the nuclear activities and halt the voluntary implementation of the Additional Protocol of the Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which allows the global watchdog to inspect Iran's nuclear facilities.
According to Russian Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov, if the bill is signed into law, Tehran risks aggravating its nuclear row with the global community, while the latter has been hoping for normalizing the situation around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the Biden administration is expected to take the White House.
NO DIRECT CONFRONTATION EXPECTED
Taking into account the previous responses of the Iranian authorities to the assassination of its officials, it is hardly possible that Tehran starts any kind of comprehensive war in return, Alam Saleh, a lecturer in Iranian studies at the Australian National University's Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, told Sputnik.
"If there is any response from Iran, it will be something similar to what has happened [with the nuclear scientist] � attacks against Israeli in the region or across the world with no trace that Iran has done that. Otherwise, I would call it very unlikely that Iran would respond directly to what happened last week in Tehran," Saleh said.
The expert recalled that after the killing of General Qassem Soleimani as a result of the US operation, Iran waited 11 months to make the biggest revenge against US President Donald Trump's administration so that its response damage Trump's presidential campaign.
"Therefore, from now on, Iran would behave in a way that would not ruin its chance to renegotiate its nuclear issues with new US President Joe Biden. So I think Iran would behave rather rationally in order to wait and to gain more in the aftermath of Biden's inauguration. Iran has very limited options to react at the moment, at least for these two months," Saleh noted.
According to the researcher, instead of taking revenge directly and immediately, Tehran will use these two assassinations as its bargaining power in the nuclear talks with Washington when Biden comes to power.
Professor Eyal Zisser, the vice rector of Tel Aviv University, also believes that Iran is more interested in improving relations with the US and, therefore, will not escalate the situation in the region.
"On the one hand, they [Iran] have a long memory, they remember and, eventually, they will try to carry out revenge. At the same time, there are very calculated, very careful and they do restrain themselves. I think that nobody is interested in a full escalation and deterioration into a major conflict, and they are also more interested in promoting the relations with the United States in the Biden era. So I guess we will hear many threats, but first they will look and see what might be the policy of Biden. They can carry out something very limited - well, killing someone is not limited, but still. Not more than for the time being. The priority is the relations with the United States," Zisser told Sputnik.
At the same time, the professor did not rule out that Tehran would attempt to carry out revenge.
"But for the time being, it looks as if it has been contained," Zisser added.
According to the vice rector, in the months before Biden's inauguration, Trump can take more actions in this direction � not a major war against Iran but rather more provocations that can deteriorate the situation in the region.
"I think that if it is not something too dramatic, Iran will be very careful. The Saudis and Israel have no interest in something big. But Trump can push us toward a major escalation," Zisser concluded.
Commenting on the nuclear scientist's assassination, Mohammed Mohsen Abo El-Nour, an Egyptian researcher on Iranian affairs and chairman of the Arab Forum for Iranian Policy Analysis, told Sputnik that the incident would increase tensions in the region during the next two months or even until the summer of 2021, including the date of the Iranian presidential election scheduled to be held in June.
The analyst warned that if the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran became irreversible, the situation might result in skirmishes in Syria or one of the Persian Gulf countries and then "the repercussions will be enormous."
According to Abo El-Nour, there are three possible scenarios on how Iran may respond in the future, with the first one being to exercise "strategic patience."
"It is a well-known Iranian strategy, which helps Iran test the US and Israeli reactions if it undertakes any actions against the interests of Israel. Iran, probably, will wait to respond after January when it sees Biden's position and his relations with [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu," the researcher said.
Abo El-Nour noted that possible tensions between Biden and Netanyahu might "enable Iran to launch operations against Israel, including attacks on Israel embassies abroad or jeopardizing its interests in the Gulf states."
The analyst added that Tehran had also an opportunity to aggravate the conflict between Israel and Syria "because of the presence of armed groups loyal to Iran near the Golan Heights and the Israeli borders."
As for the second possible way of Iran's response to the scientist's killing, El-Nour expects that Iran may choose a way of "a major cyberoperation against Israel," which includes "the recruitment of internal actors in Tel Aviv."
The last scenario envisages that Iran will "mobilize some forces in the Gaza Strip (Hamas and Islamic Jihad) to launch operations against Israel," the Egyptian researcher said.
