MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 04th November, 2020) The US election outcome may remain undecided for days, stoking tensions within the American society, which are unlikely to disappear regardless of who wins, experts told Sputnik.
Hours after polling places closed on November 3, both President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden claimed being on path to win. The incumbent president, who has already threatened to go to the Supreme Court to protest the vote count "fraud," said on Wednesday that his "solid" lead in several key Democratic states had "magically disappeared" overnight.
'EXTREMELY CONTENTIOUS' DAYS AHEAD
"I don't believe there will be nationwide protests. The final result will be slow in coming, thus defusing the situation. A decisive win by Trump last night might have provoked disruptions. If there is a court case which results in deciding the outcome (as in 2000) that could produce a violent reaction. There definitely will be litigation by the Trump campaign to contest rulings about counting procedures by state officials," Bill Boerum, a political activist and civic leader from California, told Sputnik.
As for the divide within the US society, it will persist no matter who takes the White House, as the dividing lines go beyond political issues, according to the activist.
"The image of the United States and the reputation of our democracy already are damaged by the chaotic voting procedures and the mystery of the electoral college. There has been a cultural civil war going on which was intensified this year. No matter who ultimately wins, this division will continue because the division is cultural not just political," Boerum said.
Alan W. Cafruny, Henry Platt Bristol professor of international affairs with the government department at Hamilton College, agrees that the final result may not be known for days.
"As I write at 730 EST Biden still has a path to victory based on performance in the upper midwest, where votes are still being counted. While the Supreme Court would certainly favor Trump in future litigation it would probably not stop voting in a number of states that are still in play, including Pennsylvania and North Carolina," he told Sputnik.
As for Trump's "premature" declaration of victory, the expert suggested that it "would almost certainly encourage violent protests if Biden wins the election." In general, he summed up, the 2020 race is further evidence of "the acute tensions and disintegrative tendencies in American society."
Thomas Whalen, an associate professor at the social science department in Boston University, also believes that protests are possible "especially if Trump loses."
"He could call on his supporters nationwide to take to the streets and march on Washington. In that scenario, the US will [be] perilously close to becoming a Banana Republic," Whalen told Sputnik.
RHETORIC, MEDIA TO PLAY CRUCIAL ROLE
Matthew Lebo, professor with University of Western Ontario's department of political science, holds the view that delays in the US election results may actually push tensions up.
"Today and the next few days are likely to be extremely contentious in the United States. If the results of the election in key states are unknown for several days and contested in the courts, some partisans are likely to demonstrate and violence is a possibility," Lebo told Sputnik.
Much, however, will depend not just on what Trump says but also on how those results are received and talked about by the media and Republican Party elites, he continued.
"If by the end of Wednesday the major tv networks including Fox News declare that Biden has surpassed 270 electoral votes, it will deflate Trump's chances to overturn those results in the courts. But if the Republican Party and Republican-leaning news all support Trump's narrative that the election is being stolen, then Republican voters will believe that and the situation becomes very dangerous," the professor said.
FOREIGN POLICY: HOSTAGE OF DOMESTIC DIVISIONS
As for foreign policy, experts note that it did not feature prominently in the 2020 campaign, which took place in the context of the pandemic and economic crisis.
"It is doubtful that a Trump victory would lead to new foreign policy initiatives. It would however ensure that deep domestic divisions would spill over into foreign policy. Confrontational policies towards Russia and China will continue regardless of the outcome. A Trump victory will increase U.S.-European tensions, not least over the EU's desire to engage with Iran," Cafruny said.
Whalen agrees that the US policy toward China and Russia "will be more of the same" should Trump win.
