ANALYSIS - Potential China-Iran Partnership May Result In 'Geopolitical Shift' In Middle East, Asia

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 21st October, 2020) The potential strategic partnership between Iran and China may result in "a marked geopolitical shift" in the middle East and Asia, and the further boosting of ties between two countries will provide Beijing with a wider entree into the region, experts told Sputnik, adding that Tehran, being distrustful of Washington, is now looking to the east for cooperation.

Earlier in October, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif traveled to the southern Chinese province of Yunnan and held what he later dubbed "fruitful talks" with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on the "Iran-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership." According to the top Iranian diplomat, he and Wang "rejected US unilateralism and US attempts to create unipolar world."

Zarif also added that both Beijing and Tehran "agreed on strengthening our ties including a 25-year plan, regional cooperation, preserving JCPOA [the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iranian nuclear deal] and vaccine collaboration."

He was referring to a 25-year cooperation plan in the energy, oil and gas sectors. While the details of the deal are yet to be announced by both sides, media reports revealed leaked details. According to them, China will invest some $400 billion in different Iranian sectors, including gas and oil, while Tehran is due to ensure regular energy supplies to Beijing for 25 years at a discounted rate.

Back in July, Iranian Petroleum Minister Bijan Zangeneh refuted reports that assumed that the deal envisioned concessions to China, and said that the cooperation plan was of equal interest to both countries. Zangeneh stressed that Iran was ready to sign similar agreements with other nations.

The prospective deal carries the potential to result in "a marked geopolitical shift" in the Middle East and Asia, Amin Saikal, adjunct professor of Social Sciences at the University of Western Australia, told Sputnik.

"Although Tehran and Beijing have had close trade, economic and strategic ties, a further strengthening of these provides Beijing with a wider entree into a region which so far has not been an arena of intense US-Chinese rivalry," he said.

According to the expert, given the increased pressure of the administration of US President Donald Trump on Iran, "Tehran has had little choice but to maximize its relations with those powers that could provide it with a counter."

"Tehran has increasingly become distrustful of the US and is looking more to those eastern powers with which it holds common interests," he said.

TRUMP TO BE 'AT ODDS' WITH IRAN-CHINA PARTNERSHIP

Saikal believes that the administration of US President Donald Trump would certainly be at odds with the emerging Iranian-Chinese partnership.

"In return, it [the Trump administration] would seek to strengthen an Israeli-Arab front, for which it has already established a strong basis in the light of the recent UAE-Israel and Bahrain-Israel peace deals," he said.

Saikal recalled that Trump's presidential rival, Joe Biden, hinted at the restoration of the US participation in the Iranian nuclear deal.

"This could lead to a lowering of tensions not only with Iran but also China. Thus, the outcome of the American election would affect the global strategic outlook," he concluded.

In 2015, Iran signed the JCPOA with China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany and the European Union. It required Iran to scale back its nuclear program and severely downgrade its uranium reserves in exchange for sanctions relief, including lifting the arms embargo five years after the deal's adoption. In 2018, the United States abandoned its conciliatory stance on Iran, withdrawing from the JCPOA and implementing hard-line policies against Tehran. Earlier in the year, the US tried to campaign for the restoration of international sanctions on Iran, specifically, an extension to the arms embargo, but all of its draft resolutions were ultimately rejected.

Hakki Uygur from the Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara, in his turn, believes that after the world powers did not support Washington on Iran, the US turned to be isolated in the international arena "in terms of politics developed against Iran."

"Therefore, the policy that affects global politics is the US maximum pressure policy rather than the Iran-China Agreement. In response to the US maximum pressure politics, the EU is in favor of maintaining diplomatic and economic relations with Iran. Russia has both military and economic relations with Iran, and China has recently shown that it does not want to cut off economic relations with Iran," he said.

He also recalled that Tehran's ties with both Moscow and Beijing started long before the signing of the historic nuclear agreement.

"Therefore, Iran's orientation towards the Eastern countries should not be seen as a result of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. In addition, Iran is still in favor of maintaining relations with the EU, where various diplomatic attempts are on its agenda," Uygur said.

RELATIONS WITH PERSIAN GULF NATIONS CRUCIAL FOR CHINA

Recalling that China is the world's largest importer of crude oil, Uygur noted that the East Asian power is importing petroleum from the Middle East, particularly from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Oman, Kuwait and Iraq.

"In this context, relations with the Persian Gulf countries other than Iran are also crucial for China. Therefore, the Iran-China Strategic partnership has its own limits. China has to pursue a balance of power politics in the Persian Gulf. It will be China's top priority not to establish a relationship with Iran that will create an asymmetry of power in the Persian Gulf," he said.

The recent World Economic Outlook report from the International Monetary Fund has revealed that China is due to be the only economy with positive growth this year.

In 2021, the IMF projects Chinese GDP will grow by 8.2 percent.

In the meantime, John Calabrese, who teaches US foreign policy at the American University in Washington and also serves as a scholar in residence at the Middle East Institute, shared with Sputnik his written testimony on Iran and China which was submitted to the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission back in September.

In particular, writing about the economy, he stresses that the relations in the energy sector between the two nations continue to "loom large."

"China regards investment in the energy sectors of its oil and gas suppliers as a means of reducing its energy security risks. Tehran needs Chinese investment and technology to boost its economy and mitigate the impact of US sanctions. However, there is a greater need and urgency for Iran than for China in moving energy cooperation faster and farther. It is China that currently has bargaining leverage, as Iran holds a weak hand," he said.

IRAN SEEKING TO SHOW IT IS NOT INTERNATIONALLY ISOLATED

Meanwhile, Guy Burton, a visiting fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre and an adjunct professor of international relations at Vesalius College in Brussels, believes that there is a risk that extensive media coverage may exaggerate the importance of the China-Iran agreement.

"Given the current context of US maximum pressure and unilateral sanctions, it's in Iran's interests to show that it has partners and is not internationally isolated. So the agreement with China as the world's second largest economy is useful in challenging the US that it's not a pariah," he told Sputnik.

He also recalled that the potential Iran-China agreement was aiming at future cooperation, "which doesn't really help Iran right now."

Burton believes that China's priorities remain at home and in its immediate neighborhood in East Asia and the South China Sea.

"Complications in the Middle East are not something that it wants to prioritise. That has been a consistent feature of its relationship in the region, which has meant that countries like Iran can't rely too much on China. Moreover, China attaches greater weight to its relations with the US, so if relations start to improve then that could mean the current bonhomie between Iran and China being abandoned," he suggested.

According to the expert, while China has a strong economic presence in the Middle East, it's not clear that it seeks to become a security provider or guarantor. That was the US role and China did well "without becoming involved in that respect," he added.

"It's also worth keeping in mind that China has been cultivating good relations on all sides in the Middle East and especially the richest countries in the Gulf, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE," the expert argued.

Both these countries have issues with Iran, but China has tried to avoid taking sides, he concluded.