RPT: REVIEW - Trump Narrows Gap In 2 Pivotal Swing States, Yet Biden Maintains More Paths To Victory

WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 20th October, 2020) US President Donald Trump has narrowed Democratic challenger Joe Biden's lead in the crucial battleground states of Florida and Pennsylvania two weeks before election day, although the electoral map still offers the former vice president more roads to victory.

TRUMP GAINS MOMENTUM IN 'MUST HAVE' STATES

Biden, as of Monday, leads Trump nationally by 8.9%, a 1.1-point dip from where he stood one week ago, according to the Realclearpolitics.com (RCP) average of 9 recent surveys. However, the electoral college format requires candidates to win statewide contests. In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton won the nationwide popular vote but lost the election because she failed to secure at least 270 of 538 electoral votes which are apportioned across the 50 states.

The biggest "swing state" prizes include Texas (38 electoral votes), Florida (29), and Pennsylvania (20). Rounding out the top ten largest battleground states are Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Minnesota (10). These ten states alone account for 183 electoral votes - more than 30% of the total.

Trump within the past week narrowed his deficit in Florida by more than two points, leaving Biden with an edge of only 1.4%, according to the RCP average.

The former vice president is ahead in Pennsylvania by 4.4% (49.2% to 44.8%), nearly three points lower than where he stood a week ago.

The Biden campaign is likely very concerned about the trend in the Keystone State, especially considering what happened four years ago. In fact, on October 19 of 2016, Clinton's lead over Trump was almost 3 points higher to where Biden's is today. Within a span of two weeks Clinton would see a 7% lead plummet to 1.8% before election day. Clinton ultimately lost Pennsylvania by less than one percent.

Moreover, the margin of error in these polls is on average about 3 percent. So in Pennsylvania the polls are actually saying Biden's lead could be as wide as around 10% (52.2%-41.8%) or Trump could actually be up by almost 2 points.

Hence, the Biden camp is unlikely to feel confident in any lead that is less than 6 or 7 percent. Although the former senator is ahead in 8 of the top ten largest battleground states, in only three does the margin breach this threshold.

Biden's biggest leads are in Michigan (+7.2%), Minnesota (+6.6%) and Wisconsin (+6.1%). In the past week, he grew his edge by nearly a point in North Carolina (+2.7%) and gained a point to flip back in his favor the state of Georgia (+1.2%). The former vice president also leads in Arizona (+3.9%) after gaining about a point from last week.

Trump, meanwhile, maintained a 4.4% edge in Texas and converted a slight deficit in Ohio into a 0.5% lead.

Two other tight races that could potentially turn out to be key factors on election day include Iowa and Nevada, each offering six electoral votes. Biden is ahead in Iowa by 1.2% and leads in Nevada by 5.2 points.

Although all the key swing states are tight, Biden has more "paths" to reaching the minimum 270 electoral votes required to win the election.

As of today, one could safely award Biden about 218 electoral votes and Trump 125, leaving 195 in the "toss up" category based on the RCP map.

Biden's easiest path to capturing the electoral college runs through the Midwest - where he simply needs to reverse Trump's reversals. If we take all the territory Clinton won in 2016 (232 electoral votes - including Minnesota and Nevada) and add the 3 rust-belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden would end up with 278 electoral votes.

Biden has a good chance of also winning Arizona, which would put him at 289 - a scenario that appears most likely. In fact, in this scenario, even if Biden lost Pennsylvania, he would be short by only one electoral vote, thus needing to add just one other state of any size.

To surpass 270, Trump would have to win at least seven of 12 swing states, only one of which he is leading by more than 1 percent. Assuming he captures Texas, the president essentially has really no path without winning both Pennsylvania and Florida. Then he has to win two races that are virtually tied (Georgia and Ohio) and two other states where he is down by more than 2 points (North Carolina and Arizona).

However, a few caveats must be mentioned, one related to the peculiar nature of the 2020 vote in light of the pandemic. Experts have said that up to 2 percent of mail-in ballots are often rejected on technical grounds, such as signature mismatch or late arrival. Polls have shown Democrats are much more likely to use the mail-in option compared to Republicans.

There is also the phenomenon known as the "hidden Trump voter." Experts have found that potential voters in certain demographics that favor Trump are simply less inclined to participate in surveys.

Finally, there is a tendency to forget the margin of error. In 2016, many pundits predicted with high confidence that Clinton would win in Pennsylvania, for example, despite the fact she was up by only 1.8% in the RCP on the eve of the election. Such a margin most polling specialists would typically consider a virtual tie or - at a minimum - too close to call.