MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 20th October, 2020) The situation in the South China Sea remains tense amid recent escalations between Washington and Beijing, however, an open conflict that could result in a so-called October surprise and affect the results of the November presidential election is unlikely given the COVID-19 crisis in the US, experts told Sputnik, adding that every side of the conflict should show calm in any case.
The already tense situation between the two superpowers boiled over in early October when Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS John S. McCain entered Chinese territorial waters around the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea without Beijing's consent.
Zhang Nandong, the spokesman of the Chinese military's southern command, described the incident as an "invasion."
"The US Navy's missile destroyer John S. McCain invaded the territorial waters of China in the Xisha archipelago [Paracel Islands] on October 9 without the permission of the Chinese government," the spokesman, said, calling upon Washington to refrain from provocations.
'ONE PROVOCATION AFTER ANOTHER'
Beijing insists that the US warships often enter the South China Sea to demonstrate military might and by this violate China's sovereignty and undermine stability in the whole region. For example, in July, US Navy destroyer Ralph Johnson navigated through contested waters. Also in July, US aircraft carrier strike groups started conducting joint drills in the contested area. In mid-August, a strike group led by the USS Ronald Reagan launched a number of flight operations and maritime exercises in the area.
Ren Xiao, a professor of international politics at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, believes that all sides of the confrontation should "calm down."
"What the Trump administration has been doing there are one provocation after another. That's not good. China showed much restraint. Yet this should not be seen as being weak. 'October surprise' in the South China Sea? Since COVID is spreading in the White House and the Pentagon, it seems not very likely now," he told Sputnik.
While, in general, China resorted to verbal threats toward the US, speculations have recently emerged suggesting the change in this policy since the South China Sea has recently become a potential territory for military confrontations. In particular, at the end of August, China fired two missiles into the South China Sea in an act of "warning" to Washington after a US reconnaissance aircraft entered restricted airspace and the Chinese army fired live ammunition.
However, when asked about the possibility of changing the tactics from the Chinese authorities, Ren replied that "we don't want any military conflict in the South China Sea, and we hope that cooler minds will prevail in Washington in the coming months and years."
China insists that the US spy planes disrupted a regular military exercise and violated the international norms of the safe sea and air conduct. The missiles included a DF-26B dual-capability missile, launched from the northwestern Qinghai province, and a DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, launched from the eastern coastal Zhejiang province. Both were fired into an area between Hainan province and the Paracel Islands.
Meanwhile, the US rejected Beijing's claims of intruding into Chinese air space. Reacting to the situation, US Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea insisted that China was "solely mistaken" if it believed that launching ballistic missiles could intimidate Washington.
Separately, at the end of August, the US blacklisted 24 Chinese companies over their alleged role in building military fortifications on artificial islands in the South China Sea. The 24 entities blacklisted by the Commerce Department include several subsidiaries of China Communications Construction Company, China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, 30th Research Institute (CETC-30), China Shipbuilding Group, 722nd Research Institute, and Wuhan Mailite Communication Co., Ltd. among others.
Bill Hayton, Associate Fellow with the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House, believes that the global community should see the appearance of USS John S. McCain in the South China Sea as "normal behavior" even though it "comes at a time of rising tension between the two countries' leaderships."
"International law gives every ship in the world - even a warship - the right to sail wherever it wants - so long as it does so on the basis of 'innocent passage'," he told Sputnik.
According to the expert, the US, China, Russia as well as other countries "make full use of this right - under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea."
"We do not know exactly where the USS John McCain sailed or on what basis - but it seems that if it just sailed near the Paracels then it was operating within international law," he concluded.
For decades, Beijing has been disputing the status of a number of territories in the South China Sea that it lays claim to, primarily the Paracel and Spratly Island. China views the Spratly archipelago to be its territory, despite the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling, which said there was no legal basis for China's maritime claims. The arbitration proceeding was initiated by the Philippines in January 2013.
