The Turkish ship Oruc Reis has left for another 10-day seismic exploration mission in hotly disputed waters, which Greece considers to be a part of its continental shelf
BRUSSELS (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 12th October, 2020) The Turkish ship Oruc Reis has left for another 10-day seismic exploration mission in hotly disputed waters, which Greece considers to be a part of its continental shelf.
Hence, tensions are expected to flare up again in the Eastern Mediterranean between Greece, Cyprus and Turkey. France, which has recently become the most vocal critic of Turkey, might also get involved since it has sent several vessels to the region to try to influence Ankara in a show of strength.
The Turkish navy will very probably escort the exploration vessel and two other ships accompanying it.
In summer, Oruc Reis' seismic survey in the waters south of the Greek island of Kastellorizo severely exacerbated tensions in the region, pushing Greece to put its armed forces on alert. Turkish fighter jets flew into Greek airspace, and the Turkish navy threatened Greek ships.
In mid-September, Turkey withdrew its ship from the disputed waters to "open door for diplomacy," which apparently has not yielded results.
Separately, a very serious incident took place on June 10 off the coast of Libya, when France's Courbet frigate attempted to check a Tanzanian-flagged cargo ship under the escort of three Turkish vessels over suspicion of trafficking arms. According to France, Courbet was "illuminated" three times by Turkish naval targeting radar when it tried to approach the freighter. As a result, the frigate had to abandon its mission.
France then suspended its participation in NATO's Sea Guardian operation in the Mediterranean, qualifying the ally's action as "hostile."
President Emmanuel Macron has since had an increasingly aggressive series of exchanges with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the French navy has sent several vessels to the region.
The problem is around the rights over potentially rich gas deposits of the region. Some important discoveries have already been made off the coast of Cyprus and in the part of the Mediterranean, to the southeast, in the direction of Israel and Egypt.
Greece and Cyprus have signed contracts with giant European and US companies, as well as smaller Israeli enterprises to search for oil and gas under the seabed.
These companies such as Eni, Total or Texas company Noble Energy, have started exploratory drillings around Cyprus, but Ankara and Northern Cyprus have loudly complained that no drilling can take place before an agreement is found between the Republic of Cyprus, an EU member, and the Turkish-dominated part of the island.
Against the backdrop of Oruc Reis sailing again to the disputed zones, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias informed the EU Foreign Affairs Council on Monday about "the new illegal activities of Turkey on the Greek continental shelf."
"I also explained what's obvious - the common denominator in all problematic situations in the region: Nagorno Karabakh, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Cyprus, Southeastern Mediterranean. The common denominator is Turkey. Turkey is acting as the disruptor of peace and stability in the region," he said after the council's meeting, as quoted by the Greek ministry.
The assertiveness of President Erdogan is indeed evident not only in the disputes with Greece. It is also evident though his intervention in Syria and support for Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia. Turkey is also actively engaged in Libya, where it supports the� Tripoli government in fighting against the eastern army led by Khalifa Haftar.
Turkey's relations with Europe are also strained amid regular threats to "open the gates" to hundreds of thousands of migrants.
The country is still officially a candidate to join the EU, but many in the West demand that the stalled accession process be stopped.
DEFUSING TENSIONS BETWEEN NATO ALLIES
NATO is also shaken by tensions between Turkey and Greece, which have a long history of border disputes and competing claims over maritime rights.
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is trying to negotiate a solution. He met with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Athens.
Amid confrontation between the two "allies," the bloc is trying to avoid the worst. Since the beginning of October, a so-called deconfliction mechanism has been put in place between the two capitals "to reduce the risk of incidents and accidents in the region," Stoltenberg said.
In other words, the two countries must speak to each other in an emergency. It is "based on the commitment to use a secure hotline established between Turkey and Greece and available 24 hours a day. This system can help create space for diplomatic efforts," the NATO chief explained.
Ex-commander in NATO and military expert Pierre Henrot is skeptical that either the alliance� or the European Union has any leverage on President Erdogan, "who wants to become a sort of new Ottoman Caliph and dreams of reclaiming the territories lost at the beginning of the 20th century."
Henrot notes that each of Turkey's foreign policy steps fits in with this concept - from the conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque to support for powerful religious-political movement National Outlook, which brings together Turkish diaspora organizations in Europe and has "more than 50,000 members in Germany alone," where it is headquartered.
"Germany would never dare create problems to Erdogan, out of fear of a reaction by the large Turkish minority in Germany. Let's not forget that the EU is still under Erdogan's 'migration' blackmail," Henrot told Sputnik.
NATO, in turn, needs the Incirlik air base as well as Kurecik radar stations.
"So there does not seem to be a solution, either diplomatic or military. Erdogan has the cards in his hands to force NATO, the USA (which is leaving the region) and the EU to stay out of the problem," the expert concluded.
Samuele Furfari, a professor of energy geopolitics at Free University of Brussels, shares the view that many disputes take root in Ankara's neo-Ottoman ambitions and attempts to "present a sort of continuity of territorial waters between Turkey and Libya to the south, forgetting that there is the large Greek island of Crete in the middle."
On the other hand, the essence of the current dispute between Greece and Turkey is still economic and energy issues. Since the law is on the side of Greece, Ankara "has to find a way of trading or exert some pressure to get a piece of the pie," the expert believes.
Greece and Cyprus are, meanwhile, trying to rally more support from the EU. The latter, Furfari recalled, even opposed any sanctions against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to force the bloc to take a firm stand on Turkey.
"So, I believe that we are heading towards a deterioration of the situation. It is blocked and both NATO and the European Union are totally paralyzed," he argued.
Erdogan, however, has another card up his sleeve and can obstruct the EastMed pipeline project, which is to bring natural gas from Israel's Leviathan field and Cyprus' Aphrodite field to Greece, Italy and the Balkans.
"For now, the Eastmed gas pipeline project is paralyzed by Turkey, which has extended its influence in Libya and is providing military support to the government in Tripoli against the forces of Marshal Haftar. In return, Erdogan obtained the conclusion of a maritime agreement, signed a year ago and covering the extension of Turkish territorial waters, which in fact cross part of the area through which the future Eastmed gas pipeline should pass. For Turkey, it's a way to impose itself at the negotiating table. Behind politics obviously lie huge economic interests," the professor said.
