WASHINGTON (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 24th September, 2020) Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden if elected would likely continue the Trump administration's policies of strengthening NATO's military presence in Eastern Europe and pressing allies to boost defense spending, analysts told Sputnik.
During a televised "town hall" meeting in the key swing state of Pennsylvania last week, Biden signaled that he would be much tougher on Russia than Trump has been and vowed to strengthen US relations with its allies. The former vice president claimed Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to break up NATO to avoid facing a full alliance contingent.
On closer inspection, however, the national security policies Biden has supported or proposed ironically look a lot like Trump's - especially when it comes to NATO.
Trump, to be sure, has gone to great lengths to force NATO allies to increase their defense spending contributions. For example, earlier this year, he ordered the redeployment of troops from Germany to punish Berlin for underpaying alliance dues.
However Biden, just like Trump, is expected to keep pressuring allies, including Germany, when it comes to meeting NATO quotas, Politico reported on Monday, citing campaign sources.
Biden and other critics slammed Trump's decision to relocate US troops from Germany without acknowledging that almost half of the forces will be re-positioned within Europe to strengthen the alliance's eastern flank. In other words, the troops will be moved closer to Russia's borders.
In 2018, Biden in an article for Foreign Affairs also proposed boosting NATO's military capabilities in a way that does not deviate from Trump's game plan significantly. Brooking Institution scholar Michael O'Hanlon believes Biden's proposal is in line with Trump's designs.
"[Biden's proposal]... relates to some of what Trump has been doing or now plans to - strengthening the US posture in Poland, for example, and facilitating the logistics that would be needed to send US forces through Poland to the Baltic states in a crisis," O'Hanlon told Sputnik.
University of California Santa Cruz Emeritus Professor of Politics, Ronnie Lipschutz, said Biden, of course, would have no choice but to act to support NATO in order to reassure America's allies.
"It's clear that diminishing it [NATO] makes the Europeans and many in DC very uncomfortable," Lipschutz told Sputnik.
Lipschutz, the author of "Constitution of Imperium," which analyzes how Washington and its allies use institutions like NATO to maintain global hegemony, said he would actually like to see Europe constitute an independent defense force to balance against the US.
Moscow, for its part, has long argued that the NATO military buildup near Russia's borders only serves to increase the chances for sparking a conflict.
This is one of the reasons why Lipschutz hopes Biden abandons the strategy to increase NATO's military capabilities.
"It would only feed the voracious appetites of the Pentagon and defense industry - and antagonize Russia - which we don't need, whatever one thinks of Russia these days," Lipschutz said.
Despite these similarities, however, Lipschutz said he would trust Biden to take a more thoughtful approach.
"I find it difficult to identify any logic or coherence in Trump's policies vis-a-vis Europe. He seems to view international politics as the same as competition with other billionaires. So, anything Biden might do would be a lot better," Lipschutz said.
US-RUSSIA OPPORTUNITIES UNDER BIDEN?
Trump has often declared that he wants to improve relations with Moscow, yet US-Russian relations have reached a low-point. Some hope, if he is elected, Biden's actions will not match his anti-Russian rhetoric on the campaign trail, because there are areas where Moscow and Washington share common interests.
Biden, as vice president, actually pushed back against the Obama administration's more hawkish policies. He opposed the Libya intervention and the surge in Afghanistan. In addition, he openly questioned the wisdom of arming extremists in Syria.
O'Hanlon said Moscow and Washington could work together towards diplomatic deals for peace on the situations in Syria and Libya among other opportunities.
"And then there's Iran policy, where Biden will likely return to the JCPOA and thus to being in lockstep with Russia, whatever that may get us," O'Hanlon said.
Although the former vice president wants to maintain US sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine crisis, O'Hanlon doubts Biden would "rock the boat" too much.
"We have sort of reached a 'new normal' of low-grade, ongoing, and constrained hostilities in eastern Ukraine - and of course, a firm Russian hold on Crimea. There's not much reason to go looking for trouble, so to speak, unless the Russians step up the provocations," O'Hanlon added.
The think tank scholar also suggested that even more could be done, although some might claim it sounds like wishful thinking.
"Ideally, too, we'd actually try to solve the Ukraine problem with a negotiated settlement on the Donbas and a lifting of sanctions on Russia. But that seems like a moonshot at present," O'Hanlon observed.
