RPT: ANALYSIS - Afghanistan Future In Question If US Cuts Troops Without Getting Progress In Peace Talks

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 15th September, 2020) The reduction of US military presence and the developments in the peace process in war-ravaged Afghanistan are interconnected because if there are only US troop cuts and no progress in the peace negotiations, the Taliban may realize that bargaining with the Kabul government is useless, and this may lead to serious problems in Afghanistan's political landscape, experts told Sputnik.

This Saturday marked the start of the historic peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban group in the Qatari capital of Doha following the conclusion of a prisoner exchange process, which was agreed upon when the insurgent group and the United States signed a peace deal in February. The main topics on the agenda of the talks, which are due to last over a week, include a permanent ceasefire, Afghanistan's future political system, and a range of social issues.

The long-awaited talks were delayed on several occasions and were under a threat of cancellation due to the attacks staged by the Taliban movement and US operations in Afghanistan. They were agreed on during the February 29 landmark agreement between Washington and the Taliban in Doha.

The talks opened less than a week after US Central Command announced that Washington will pull thousands of troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan by the end of the year. Trump vowed that Washington will reduce the number of US troops in Iraq to 2,000 "in a very short period of time." He also reiterated that the number of US troops in Afghanistan will be reduced to 4,000 and that a small number of troops will remain in Syria to protect oil fields in the northeast of the country and help the Kurds there.

US TROOPS' REDUCTION, PEACE PROCESS TALKS INTERCONNECTED

According to Raghav Sharma, associate professor and director of the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at O. P. Jindal Global University, the reduction of the American military presence in war-ravaged Afghanistan should go hand in hand with the developments of the peace process, the expert noted.

"If the US administration proceeds with further troop cuts without their being any tangible progress on intra-Afghan peace talks and the levels of violence effectively continuing unabated it is likely to convince the Taliban regarding the futility of bargaining with the Kabul government and may cause fissures in the political and military circles to widen considerably," he concluded.

Sharma believes that the US troops' cuts in Afghanistan "sits well" with Trump's political stance on America's involvement overseas. He believes that the decision "is likely to resonate well" with the traditional political constituency of Trump.

"However in the immediate future it seems unlikely that the political and military volatility in Afghanistan will allow the US to leave the country without it being akin to HaraKiri," he added.

Then-President George Bush announced sending first troops to Afghanistan back in 2001. His successor Barack Obama continued the tactic, and in 2010, the number of US servicemen in the conflict-stricken country peaked at 100,000. After the US elimination of al-Qaeda (terrorist group banned in Russia) founder Osama bin Laden, the US started to reduce the number of troops, yet not as fast as expected.

"The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan appears to be more an outcome of political compulsions which the impending presidential elections have amplified as opposed to being tied to the situation on the ground in Afghanistan," Sharma told Sputnik.

KABUL MAY BE UNABLE TO SUSTAIN WITHOUT FOREIGN SUPPORT

Meanwhile, Bilquees Daud, a senior research associate at the O.P Jindal Global University, doubts the effectiveness of the peace process in Afghanistan amid the US military cuts.

"It will affect the peace talk negatively since the Afghanistan government will not be able to sustain without foreign support and the Taliban will take full advantage of this opportunity. Taliban will have no will to barging with the Afghanistan government. Also, the level of violence will increase in Afghanistan," she told Sputnik when asked how further cuts in US military personnel in Afghanistan would affect the peace process in the country and the intra-Afghan talks.

Daud believes that the recent announcement of troops' cuts "is just one part of the presidential campaign not being tied in the long years of war."

"Trump tries to win the hearts of Americans by this move since he knows that cutting military presence in the only card he has to win the election," she said.

Daud, however, warned that there may be concerns over terrorism level, which might become a global challenge again in case of the talks' failure.

"Americans have to make sure there is some degree of stability in Afghanistan, I think they have no other option," she said.

CUTS UNLIKELY TO HAVE NEGATIVE EFFECT IF DEAL'S COMMITMENTS ACHIEVED

The US military cuts "will not have a negative effect on the peace process in the country," in case the mutual commitments to the deal between Washington and the Taliban are achieved, Abdul Hadi Jalali, co-founder and director of the Afghanistan Center for Policy Studies recalled while speaking to Sputnik.

According to Jalali, on the contrary, the deal may boost the chances of a successful intra-Afghan agreement.

"The September 12 inauguration of the intra-Afghan peace dialogue process is an excellent example of the US Government's successful diplomatic efforts towards implementation of the Doha Peace Deal. In terms of ending the war in Afghanistan, the US Government's long-term strategic and bilateral political and economic cooperation is more crucial than the existence of extended military personnel in the country," he said.

However, the potential agreement should be continued to be supported by Washington in diplomatic, political and economic fronts, "to ensure successful peacebuilding process over the next 10 years in the country," according to the expert.

Jalali recalled that the US troops' cuts in Iraq and Afghanistan were aligned with Trump's political pledges back in 2016 and, therefore, the US move will "for sure add value and strength to Trump's political rhetoric and future pledges" during his presidential campaign.

"While, specifically in the case of Afghanistan, these cuts are also in-line with the US Government's conditional Peace Deal with Taliban, signed on February 29, 2020, in Qatar. Therefore, the cuts have campaign value for President Trump, but they also represent the larger US Government/Washington's policy of reducing direct military spending in the region," Jalali said, recalling that that Trump's contester, Democrat Joe Biden, also pursues the same policy of cuts and reducing spending levels on US military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq.

In a rare incident, Biden has recently backed Trump in his decision to pull out US troops from both conflict-ridden nations, saying that he supports the move "as long as he [Trump] has a plan to figure out how he's going to deal" with Islamic State (IS terrorist group, banned in Russia).