ANALYSIS - UK's Proposed Internal Market Bill Draws Ire Of EU, Scotland Over Rollbacks

MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 11th September, 2020) The UK government's proposed Internal Market Bill is likely to draw the ire of political leaders in both Brussels and Edinburgh over its proposed changes to the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the system of governance in Scotland, which could increase the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit and lead to intensified calls for Scottish independence, experts told Sputnik.

Ahead of the bill's publication, the UK government said in a press release that the new measures will facilitate "unhindered" trade across the whole of the United Kingdom, adding that a range of powers previously exercised by the EU would be given to the devolved legislatures.

Key components of the Internal Market Bill contradict the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement by giving ministers the power to determine rules governing state aid and the transport of goods between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

The UK left the European Union in January, triggering a transition period that is scheduled to expire at the end of the year. Negotiations between London and Brussels on several key issues, the most notable of which is a wide-ranging free trade deal, have been slow, and the UK government's desire to alter the Withdrawal Agreement is likely to increase tensions at the negotiating table.

European Parliament President David Sassoli said on Wednesday that "trust and credibility" would be lost if the UK rolls back on its commitments, and it may be the case that Westminster's latest decision will create further division between London and Brussels.

UK ADMITS TO BREAKING INTERNATIONAL LAW

Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis' admission in the House of Commons on Tuesday that the government was willing to break international law by revising the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement has sent shockwaves through the domestic and international political landscape.

David Hearne, a researcher at Birmingham City University's Centre for Brexit Studies, called the government's admission a "shocking development," adding that it has the potential of disrupting the UK's ongoing trade talks with the European Union.

"I cannot overstate how significant this is. To stand up and admit that the government actively intends to break a treaty (and international law) is quite a shocking development. The entire point of international agreements is to bind both sides to a particular course of action. Why would you sign an agreement with a country if you don't trust it to keep to its word? This has the potential to wreck trade talks with the EU, the US and cause consternation further afield," Hearne told Sputnik.

These sentiments were shared by Dharmendra Kanani, the director of insights at the Brussels-based think tank Friends of Europe, who told Sputnik that it was unprecedented for a standing government to admit to breaking international law.

"The standing government of the UK is admitting to breaking international law. It's unheard of, it's unprecedented," Kanani stated.

The Friends of Europe's director of insights added that Westminster's decision may potentially "torpedo" the levels of trust between London and Brussels.

"Behind closed doors, be in no doubt, this is a huge torpedo in the relations of trust between both sides. It's also, unfortunately, in keeping with the form of [UK Prime Minister Boris] Johnson's government and its approach to these negotiations," Kanani remarked.

Westminster's belief that it can roll back on its commitments reflects other recent events, such as the Dominic Cummings scandal, which saw ministers defend the prime minister's top political adviser despite his breach of the country's COVID-19 lockdown restrictions back in March, the expert stated.

"I think that whilst Mr. Johnson doesn't care because he's got such a vast majority, there's something about the cocksureness that he has about moving forward because he knows that he can get away with whatever. It's reflective of the coronavirus and the Dominic Cummings issue ... I think that this might be an unraveling of that approach, and it all depends on the strength of a response EU leaders take on this matter as a collective," Kanani commented.

Despite the fact that negotiators from London and Brussels have been engaged in multiple rounds of talks throughout the year to conclude a free trade deal, Johnson has stated that it could still be a "good outcome" if the transition period ends on December 31 without an agreement being reached.

According to Kanani, from the Friends of Europe think tank, the EU will have to choose whether it takes a firm stand against the UK for its attempts to alter the Withdrawal Agreement.

"They'll have to think long and hard about whether they are going to up the ante in terms of playing Mr. Johnson at his own game, which is not terribly dignified, unfortunately, in terms of whether you entirely break up the process as of now because of the treaty," Kanani commented.

Despite the UK admitting to breaking international law, the expert stated that it was unlikely that the EU would mount a legal challenge to the violation. However, Brussels may push to declare the Withdrawal Agreement null and void, further complicating negotiations.

"There's something here about what the EU does. Does it step up and accelerate the legal process and/or does it regard the entire withdrawal process null and void because of this bill?" Kanani remarked.

According to Hearne, the Birmingham City University researcher, Westminster's decision to roll back on its commitments to the Withdrawal Agreement may potentially "poison" the ongoing negotiations.

"It has the potential to poison negotiations, which rely at least in part on trust. It doesn't make it impossible to come to an agreement, particularly if the bill is altered before becoming law. However, it is likely to make it more difficult. A great deal will depend on the results of talks and discussions between UK officials and their EU counterparts over the coming days and weeks. It is just possible that a way can be found to enable the UK to climb down from this position in a manner that enables the government to 'spin' this as a victory to its domestic audience," Hearne said.

BILL FACES BACKLASH FROM DEVOLVED GOVERNMENTS

Alongside the EU, the devolved governments in Scotland and Wales have also fiercely criticized Westminster's proposed Internal Market Bill over fears that it will limit the powers currently held by the parliaments in Holyrood and Cardiff Bay.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon on Wednesday called the new bill an "abomination" and a "no-holds-barred, full-frontal assault on devolution," as the proposed measures would give the UK government greater power over how public funds are spent in Scotland.

The proposed bill may also allow for the government in London to impose decisions on key issues, such as food standards, on the rest of the United Kingdom, according to Hearne.

"What matters is the perception of what the bill does and how future events might affect it. If the bill is seen as taking power away from the devolved government then it is likely to be both unpopular and fuel calls for independence in Scotland. Secondly, and perhaps most contentiously, if the UK government decides to accept US food standards then the Internal Market Bill effectively will impose that decision on the whole of the UK, preventing the Scottish and Welsh governments from legislating to prevent this," the Centre for Brexit Studies researcher said.

John Drummond, the chairman of the Constitutional Commission, a Scottish think tank, told Sputnik that the UK government's proposed bill threatens to roll back over two decades of devolution.

"Ministers based in Westminster would have powers over a number of devolved areas including health, education, and social issues too. The reason she [Nicola Sturgeon] described it as an abomination, I suspect, is that it completely turns on its head 20 years of devolution for which the Scottish people voted overwhelmingly on each and every occasion," Drummond stated.

The Scottish National Party, which holds 48 of Scotland's 59 seats in the House of Commons, has continued to push for independence in the years following the 2014 referendum, which saw 55 percent of voters choose to stay in the United Kingdom.

Calls for independence intensified following the UK's 2016 referendum on membership of the European Union. The Leave campaign won the referendum, claiming 52 percent of the vote in the UK as a whole. However, 62 percent of Scottish voters expressed their desire to remain part of the European Union.

According to the Constitutional Commission chairman, the publication and potential implementation of the Internal Market Bill is likely to intensify the campaign for Scottish independence, as Westminster's latest initiative effectively eradicates the "middle ground" in Scottish politics.

"In the past, the Scottish electorate were confronted with essentially three options. One, the status quo, i.e. no change to the constitution. Two was devolution, which for a long time was the preferred option, and the third was independence ... The middle option was always the refuge for folks who were a little bit undecided whether they wanted the status quo ... or independence. What the legislation effectively does is eradicate the middle position," Drummond commented.

The devolved Scottish government is continuing work to draft a bill on a second independence referendum, and Scottish voters will go to the polls in May for parliamentary elections. According to Drummond, the impact of the UK government's Internal Market Bill will have an impact at the polls.

"It will have a huge psychological effect, which in turn, will have an effect in the polls," the Constitutional Commission chairman said.

The bill still needs to be debated and passed by both the House of Commons and the House of Lords before entering into law. Despite the large Conservative majority in the Commons making it likely for the bill to pass, the fallout from the government's latest measure could lead to further conflict between Holyrood and Westminster in the months and years to come.